Category: Uncategorized

Weather Headlines

–The next rain-maker arrives Thursday

–Friday looking very wet (maybe even some thunder)

–Precipitation ends as some snow flurries on Saturday

Main threats

As colder air moves in late Friday night and Saturday morning, any leftover precipitation will fall as snow flurries or snow showers. At this time, significant impacts are not expected.

Summary

We’ll see some clouds today but we should also see some sun. Those clouds will be on the increase later tonight and tomorrow.

That will set the stage for our next rain-maker. Showers may develop as early as Thursday afternoon. With our air being so dry, evaporative cooling may cause those showers to be mixed with sleet pellets. Since surface temperatures will be above freezing, there would be no impacts from this.

Rain increases through the night Thursday and Friday. Some rumbles of thunder are even possible. One to two inches of rain is expected across the plateau.

Precipitation may end as some snow flurries or snow showers on Saturday, mainly in the morning. Little to no accumulation is expected at this time.

We remain partly to mostly cloudy on Sunday, with more in the way of partly cloudy skies expected for the start of our work week.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

As I’ve said before, January of 1999 was a quite the month for severe weather across much of the southern US. On this day of that year, a violent F-3 tornado struck Clarksville, TN, located about 50 miles northwest of Nashville.

The tornado struck just before dawn, which is normally the coolest and most stable time of day, especially in January. Five people were injured.

Also on this day, Chinook winds during the early morning hours of January 22, 1943 caused temperatures to rise from -4 to 45 degrees in only two minutes at Spearfish, South Dakota! This is the most dramatic temperature change in world weather records. An hour and a half later the temperature plunged from 54 degrees to -4 in only 27 minutes.

Wednesday Word of the Day

Chinook Winds

Winds that develop when warm, moist air blows from the Pacific Ocean toward the Rocky Mountain range. The air climbs the western slopes and drops precip in the form of rain and/or snow. After releasing all of the moisture, the winds then descend down the eastern slope of the mountains and dry out further. Meanwhile, since descending air heats up as it descends, the wind becomes very warm and dry. The descending air may also be accompanied by wind gusts to 80 mph.

NASA Knowledge

NASA launched an opportunity for the next Mars rover to be named last year. Students in Kindergarten through 12th grade were given an opportunity to write an essay and tell what they thought the rover should be called and why. More than 28,000 essays were submitted!

A panel of 4,700 judge volunteers, composed of educators, professionals, and space enthusiasts from around the country narrowed that huge pool down to 155 semifinalists from every state and territory of the US. Of those, nine have been selected for the public to vote on. They are listed here:

• Endurance, K-4, Oliver Jacobs of Virginia
• Tenacity, K-4, Eamon Reilly of Pennsylvania
• Promise, K-4, Amira Shanshiry of Massachusetts

• Perseverance, 5-8, Alexander Mather of Virginia
• Vision, 5-8, Hadley Green of Mississippi
• Clarity, 5-8, Nora Benitez of California

• Ingenuity, 9-12, Vaneeza Rupani of Alabama
• Fortitude, 9-12, Anthony Yoon of Oklahoma
• Courage, 9-12, Tori Gray of Louisiana

Online voting began yesterday and will remain open until 11:00 pm CST January 27. Please go to https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/participate/name-the-rover/ and cast your vote! You can even read the nine essays.

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

News

I shared this on social media yesterday and caused quite the buzz! (ha) The NWS in Miami had to post a statement advising folks to be careful for the Iguanas that may get too cold to be able to stay in the trees last night. How would you like to have to worry about an Iguana falling on ya? (ha)

You all have a great day!

Weather Headlines

–Flurries end today, with sunshine making an appearance

–Next rain-maker arrives Thursday night and Friday

–Flurries possible Saturday morning

Main threats

Just bundle up in this cold air. We have another very cold night on tap for tonight. Make sure the people and pets in your life are warm!

Snow flurries are possible Saturday morning. At this time, no significant impacts are expected. If the track of the low changes, however, we could have some light snow with light accumulation. The chances of accumulation are about 20%, as it looks right now. Monitoring.

Summary

The snow flurries that have been flying around the past 24 hours will come to an end this morning. As these clouds break up, we should see some peaks of sun as we go through the day. Clearer skies will set the stage for a very cold night.

Clouds will be on the increase yet again by Thursday, ahead of our next rain-maker. That system will keep us very wet for our Friday. As the system pulls away and colder air moves back in, the precip could end as some snow flurries or light snow. Impacts are expected to be minimal but the track of the low will determine that for sure. It’s too soon to have high confidence in that track, though models have been trending northward with that low the past few model runs. That would lessen our snow chances. I’ll keep an eye on it.

Skies stay on the cloudy side throughout the weekend. Another disturbance could swing through or nearby on Sunday night. I may have to add some flurries for that in later outlooks, depending on the exact track of that disturbance.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

On this day in 1935 Nashville reports an early morning high temperature of 69 degrees. Then, a very strong cold front passed through the area, dropping the temperature to 36 degrees by 7:00 a.m., 24 degrees by noon, and 14 degrees by 7:00 p.m.! The temperature drops another 2 degrees during the evening, for a low of 12, and a daily range of 57 degrees. Three inches of snow fall by evening.

Tuesday Clues Day

“Mare’s tails and mackerel scales make tall ships carry low sails.”

This is one weather folklore with a lot of truth behind it! If you see those high, thin clouds we call cirrus clouds, you can almost always bet that there’s a storm system on the way. Upper-level moisture increases ahead of storm systems and that means you’ll see cirrus clouds beforehand. These clouds can also make for some brilliant sunrises and/or sunsets!

Sometimes my favorite part of an incoming storm system are the clouds like these that precede it. I love those pre-stormy skies!

NASA Knowledge

This past weekend SpaceX performed another test of the abort system for the Crew Dragon missions to come. The successful launch was followed by a planned rocket explosion, at which point the escape capsule was then blasted away from the explosion. Had an actual crew have been inside, they would have been perfectly safe. A successful test, to say the least.

Manned missions are set to begin as early as April. We haven’t sent astronauts to space from American soil since 2011. It’s time that changed.

The picture below is a series of images, beginning with the initial explosion the far left and progressing as you go right. The images are from my NASA Social friend Stephen Marr.

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

News

The next MASTER Class is this Thursday at 4:30 at Roane State! Remember, you must be registered to attend. The class is full but you can email me to get on the waiting list (mark@weathertap.com). The class topic is the IMPACTS mission that I just returned from a NASA Social for. It should be a very fun/informative class!

You all have a great day!

I knew it was going to snow this morning. I knew it the moment I saw that first snowflake (ha). Seriously, no matter how much forecasting improves, there will always be some surprises. At least I’m in good company. This even caught the National Weather Services in Nashville and Morristown by surprise.

If you remember, there was a time last week when I mentioned the possibility of snow flurries for Monday night. There was never any indication that anything would happen Monday morning.

In fact, ALL guidance said there was nothing to even worry about tonight. Obviously, faith in that guidance is a bit weak now.

Even today, the models say we’ll be partly cloudy and dry as a bone today. Obviously, we’re not.

Last night, this system, a typical and quirky upper-level low, dived south. I’m talking a total, both feet in, dive-as-hard-as-you-can southward to TN. There was no good reason too, but do you really need a good reason to visit our beautiful state? As the moisture from the system interacted with the plateau, flurries fell….at times they fell hard!

Remember how clear the skies were last night for the ISS flyover? How quickly things change!

You’ve heard the saying that one inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow, right? Well, when snow is super “dry”, like today’s, one inch of rain can equal 20 or more inches of snow. When the airmass is this cold and dry, it only takes a very, very little bit of moisture to make some snow.

To make matters worse, we can’t even track today’s snow because it’s coming from such low-level clouds that the radar can’t see it! It’s quite the conundrum, I tell ya.

This just emphasizes the point of the IMPACTS mission that I just returned from Wallops to learn all about. We desperately need improvements in snow forecasting. That mission intends to do just that!

This whole situation ties in perfectly to the MASTER Class for kids this week! What an excellent way to emphasize the importance of snow research! So, for that, I thank Ma Nature for the surprise. ha

We’ll likely do it all over again tonight and tomorrow morning. The core of this system should swing through tonight. I don’t expect anything more than a dusting, but some places could see a really good coating. No advisories have been issued and I’m not sure any will. At most, a winter weather advisory would be needed….at most.

These dry snows usually just blow off the roads, but be careful if you drive on any of this. Dry snows have a tendency to be super slick if enough of it collects on anything.

So, I hope you enjoyed your surprise snow today. Thankfully, as is typical with these events, the impacts have been quite small. It has been kinda nice seeing some of those pretty flakes fall, though.

Below is a current view of radars. Notice nothing is showing on the plateau. Also notice all the “blotches’ that appear around Nashville and around Morristown (east of Knoxville). Those blotches are the only places the snow shows up because that’s where radar sites are. These snow flurries are falling from such low-level clouds that by the time the radar gets away from the site, the beam is too high up to “see” the snow. Radar beams increase in altitude with increasing distance from the radar site.

The weather calms back down after tomorrow, with our next system waiting in the wings for Thursday night. That system will be a wet one, though we may see some of that end as some wintry precip on Saturday, per the latest data. I’ll keep an eye on it!

Weather Headlines

–Chances of snow flurries today through Tuesday morning. No widespread impacts are anticipated.

–New rain system arrives Friday

Main threats

-Bundle up and be ready for more cold temps!

-Snow flurries will amount to a dusting (at best). Still, be careful on any roads that may become white with snow.

Summary

A system has dropped in from the north, producing snow flurries. These events rarely add up to more than a dusting of accumulation. The precip is so light it’s hard to even see on radar (if at all). Another piece of energy will drop in tonight and tomorrow morning, producing more chances for flurries. Whenever the air is this cold it can only hold a very little bit of moisture. Therefore, if any moisture is added it tends to fall out of the air in the form of snow flurries.

The next system of significance will move in Thursday night and Friday. This system should be an all-rain event. It’s too early to know what kind of a weekend we will have just yet.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

On this day in 1918 McMinnville set their all-time record snowfall for one day, when 10″ of snow fell.

And, on this day in 1985, the Cumberland Plateau experienced its coldest temperatures on record. The city of Crossville recorded a low of -21, while the Crossville Experiment Station recorded a low of -25. Brrrrrrr.

Monday Sun Day

A scientist and philosopher from modern-day Turkey by the name of Anaxagoras was the first to suggest the sun is a star. It is estimated that this happened at around 450 BC. I’m glad he didn’t name it after himself! How would we pronounce that? ha

NASA Knowledge

Astronauts Koch and Meir are performing their third spacewalk to replace space station batteries. NASA has been airing it live this morning. We wish them a successful mission! Watch live at the link below.

https://ustream.tv/channel/6540154

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

You all have a great day!