We’ve been fortunate to have avoided the heaviest rains here on the plateau over the past 24 hours. Some parts of Middle TN have picked up close to 4 inches of rain. A heavy t-storm in northern Cumberland County dropped up to 1/2 inch of rain on those folks Sunday afternoon. We still have a chance for showers and a storm today, as the cold front slowly makes it way across the region. By evening, we should be left with just a spotty shower. Tonight, we drop into the upper 50s under clearing skies. Those clearing skies could lead to some fog Tuesday morning, so be aware of that. On Tuesday, those clear skies will allow us to warm to near 80 degrees with lower humidity! That nice weather repeats for Wednesday. By Thursday, the humidity begins moving back in, leading to an isolated afternoon/evening t-storm.
Right now, the Thursday night-Saturday time period is especially tricky to predict. We have a tropical system that is developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico today and that will track northward as we go through the week. By the second half of this week, we could be looking at some substantial rainfall if that system tracks over us, as some models are suggesting. We do have to be mindful of tropical systems, even in June. On this date in 1972, hurricane Agnes made landfall in Florida and eventually swept up the entire eastern seaboard. Total damages were higher from this one storm than from all the storms over the previous six years combined. This included damages from Camille that hit the Mississippi Coast as a cat 5 in 1969! I’ll keep an eye on all of it and you let me know if you have any questions!
**3:00p.m. Update** Flash flood watch in effect for Sunday night through Monday afternoon**
As I said yesterday, when this atmosphere is this hot and humid, it doesn’t take much to set of a shower or t-storm. We’re already seeing some activity trying to develop in Middle TN, even more back in western KY, and still more back over Oklahoma and Arkansas. All activity is slowly moving eastward toward the plateau. I still think MOST of the activity will hold off until tonight, but if you have outdoor plans anytime today, you’ll need to check on that radar from time to time. Also, if you hear thunder you’re close enough to be lightning struck and you should move all activities indoors. The only thing being barbecued had better be what’s on the grill! Any storm that does fire off today, and especially tonight, is capable of becoming severe, with damaging winds the main threat.
We continue to monitor the tropics, as well. The system in the Atlantic is looking a bit less threatening this morning, but still needs to be watched over the coming week. The system that will be entering the southern Gulf continues to look menacing and will certainly be watched very closely over the next couple of days. This system has the potential to make landfall anywhere along the Gulf Coast sometime next week.
The map below shows the flash flood watch for Middle TN (dark green) for Sunday night.
Good Saturday morning! It’s a busy time in the weather world! The heat is going to be cranking today. Highs by this afternoon will easily be in the mid to upper 80s. Cookeville may reach 90. Humidity will be high, as well, and when you have this much heat and humidity, you can bet there will be one or two storms across the plateau. Most of us will stay dry, but you have to look out for those pop-up storms this time of year. Most of the storms will be focused along a front that is well to our northwest today. Tonight, under very muggy conditions, we’ll struggle to drop below 70. On Father’s Day, that front that is to our northwest on Saturday inches closer to us for Sunday. That will dramatically increase the coverage of showers and t-storms for Sundaynight. As of now, it looks like the bulk of the activity will hold off until Sunday night, but I would definitely check back here for an update Sunday morning. When the atmosphere as volatile as it will be Sunday, it doesn’t take much at all to kick off storms. Some of those storms will pack a punch, with damaging winds being the main threat. Again, the biggest threat comes Sunday night. Those showers and storms hang around for Monday before the front finally clears the area. Tuesday looks much drier, with highs near 80 and low humidity.
And there’s the tropics! We should have two named storms, Bret and Cindy, by early next week. The one in the southern Gulf is the primary concern for now. All interests along the Gulf Coast should pay special attention to this system over the coming days.
The hot and humid weather will continue today and right on through the weekend. Expect only isolated afternoon and evening storms today. Most of us will stay dry. High temps will top out in the lower 80s. Tonight, we’ll drop to the mid 60s with muggy conditions. Those muggies hang around for Saturday, and with highs approaching 85, it will feel quite oppressive. The chances for t-storms is a bit higher on Saturday, but most of us should stay dry again. On Sunday, a front inches closer and our rain chances go up to about 70% by Sunday evening. Showers and t-storms continue for Monday, with highs near 80. We do have to be watchful of the storms on Sunday, as some of those could pack a punch. By Tuesday, the front will have made it through and we’ll enjoy lower humidity and highs in the upper 70s. Enjoy it, because the heat and humidity will try to return quickly (it is the end of June, you know? ).
We’re still watching the tropics! It now looks like we will have two tropical storms developing over the weekend and into next week. One will be in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the other will be out in the Atlantic. The one in the Gulf may threaten the Gulf Coast states by early next week. If you have plans to travel to the coast, pay attention to the forecast.
You all have a great weekend! If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to ask!