We continue to monitor the tropics, with a particular interest in what is happening in the Gulf of Mexico. The system has now made it’s way to the central Gulf and is already producing heavy rain along the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is well away from the center of the storm. The system remained disorganized overnight and has yet to be named. If named, the storm will be Cindy. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a more organized tropical storm, the system will produce life-threatening floods along coastal areas, as well as wind gusts to 50 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday night somewhere between Houston and New Orleans. The system will then move north and get caught up and steered by a cold front, which will likely shove all that moisture our way. We could get some decent rains from this system, with some models predicting 2-4″ for us. We’ll be working out the specifics of that, though, over the next 24 hours or so.
Meanwhile, today and tomorrow will be beautiful! Highs will be around 80, with light breezes. You’ll notice some beautiful high, thin clouds moving over. Those are actually from the tropical system in the Gulf! These clouds usually make for some gorgeous sunsets and just beautiful skies all the way around. The humidity picks up in earnest on Wednesday, setting the stage for tropical rain showers and storms to develop on Thursday. Thursday-Saturday look quite wet at this point, with things possibly drying out on Sunday.
Let me know if you have questions! Here is the map of the projected path as of this morning. With this track, we could get some decent rainfall, for sure.
This is the picture I took this morning out the office window, looking south over downtown Crossville. Those beautiful tropical clouds….
We’ve been fortunate to have avoided the heaviest rains here on the plateau over the past 24 hours. Some parts of Middle TN have picked up close to 4 inches of rain. A heavy t-storm in northern Cumberland County dropped up to 1/2 inch of rain on those folks Sunday afternoon. We still have a chance for showers and a storm today, as the cold front slowly makes it way across the region. By evening, we should be left with just a spotty shower. Tonight, we drop into the upper 50s under clearing skies. Those clearing skies could lead to some fog Tuesday morning, so be aware of that. On Tuesday, those clear skies will allow us to warm to near 80 degrees with lower humidity! That nice weather repeats for Wednesday. By Thursday, the humidity begins moving back in, leading to an isolated afternoon/evening t-storm.
Right now, the Thursday night-Saturday time period is especially tricky to predict. We have a tropical system that is developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico today and that will track northward as we go through the week. By the second half of this week, we could be looking at some substantial rainfall if that system tracks over us, as some models are suggesting. We do have to be mindful of tropical systems, even in June. On this date in 1972, hurricane Agnes made landfall in Florida and eventually swept up the entire eastern seaboard. Total damages were higher from this one storm than from all the storms over the previous six years combined. This included damages from Camille that hit the Mississippi Coast as a cat 5 in 1969! I’ll keep an eye on all of it and you let me know if you have any questions!
**3:00p.m. Update** Flash flood watch in effect for Sunday night through Monday afternoon**
As I said yesterday, when this atmosphere is this hot and humid, it doesn’t take much to set of a shower or t-storm. We’re already seeing some activity trying to develop in Middle TN, even more back in western KY, and still more back over Oklahoma and Arkansas. All activity is slowly moving eastward toward the plateau. I still think MOST of the activity will hold off until tonight, but if you have outdoor plans anytime today, you’ll need to check on that radar from time to time. Also, if you hear thunder you’re close enough to be lightning struck and you should move all activities indoors. The only thing being barbecued had better be what’s on the grill! Any storm that does fire off today, and especially tonight, is capable of becoming severe, with damaging winds the main threat.
We continue to monitor the tropics, as well. The system in the Atlantic is looking a bit less threatening this morning, but still needs to be watched over the coming week. The system that will be entering the southern Gulf continues to look menacing and will certainly be watched very closely over the next couple of days. This system has the potential to make landfall anywhere along the Gulf Coast sometime next week.
The map below shows the flash flood watch for Middle TN (dark green) for Sunday night.
Good Saturday morning! It’s a busy time in the weather world! The heat is going to be cranking today. Highs by this afternoon will easily be in the mid to upper 80s. Cookeville may reach 90. Humidity will be high, as well, and when you have this much heat and humidity, you can bet there will be one or two storms across the plateau. Most of us will stay dry, but you have to look out for those pop-up storms this time of year. Most of the storms will be focused along a front that is well to our northwest today. Tonight, under very muggy conditions, we’ll struggle to drop below 70. On Father’s Day, that front that is to our northwest on Saturday inches closer to us for Sunday. That will dramatically increase the coverage of showers and t-storms for Sundaynight. As of now, it looks like the bulk of the activity will hold off until Sunday night, but I would definitely check back here for an update Sunday morning. When the atmosphere as volatile as it will be Sunday, it doesn’t take much at all to kick off storms. Some of those storms will pack a punch, with damaging winds being the main threat. Again, the biggest threat comes Sunday night. Those showers and storms hang around for Monday before the front finally clears the area. Tuesday looks much drier, with highs near 80 and low humidity.
And there’s the tropics! We should have two named storms, Bret and Cindy, by early next week. The one in the southern Gulf is the primary concern for now. All interests along the Gulf Coast should pay special attention to this system over the coming days.