Meteorologist Mark

As we inch closer and closer to Monday, the weather is looking better with each new model run. We still can’t quit hoping and praying for a clear view, but it looks a heck of a lot more promising today than it did a week ago. Highs Monday should be in the mid 80s and we should be partly cloudy. In other words, it should be  a typical summer day. That’s how it looks right now, and I honestly don’t foresee any major changes with that forecast. I will continue to update you all right up until the eclipse. We’ll definitely have to check the satellite Monday morning. I’ll keep you posted!

For today, we can expect more scattered showers and storms. The bulk of the activity should hold off until this afternoon and evening, but anything can happen at any time with this air mass in place. We have a front coming through later this evening and tonight that will increase the chance of rain. That front will also bring lower rain chances for Friday. Saturday and Sunday look hot but dry. I haven’t been able to forecast that kind of weather in a while!

Today is a somber day for many who live along the Mississippi coastline. On the evening of August 17, 1969 one of the most powerful hurricanes in history came on shore the Mississippi Coast. That coast would never be the same again. Wind gusts to 190 mph were recorded at Bay Saint Louis, MS. Many wind gauges (anemometers) broke after maxing out at 200 mph winds.  We’ll never know what the actual maximum sustained winds were because all wind gauges were destroyed at and near the landfall area.  For perspective, an EF-5 tornado has winds in access of 200 mph. Hurricane Camille claimed 256 lives and 1.3 billions dollars in damage. Ships were carried up to seven miles inland, riding on a 25-foot storm surge. The Mississippi coast was completely destroyed. It would take Biloxi 25 years to recover.  This hurricane would have ended New Orleans had it struck them like it did Biloxi. Camille is one of only three cat 5 hurricanes to ever make landfall in the US (South Florida’s Andrew in 1992 and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys are the other two).  Farther inland, the pecan orchards of southern Mississippi were completely destroyed. Approximately 20,000 acres of corn were flattened. Agricultural damages to Mississippi, a very agricultural state, were phenomenal.

The area of Bay Saint Louis, where the hurricane made landfall, was once a beautiful, wealthy community along the coast, with gorgeous southern mansions facing an even more beautiful Gulf Coast. Some considered it the “Paris of the South” and folks from as far away as London would visit. Forty-eight years ago this evening, one storm took it all away. One survivor recalls her mother standing at the door and watching the waves of the Gulf get higher and closer.  They had never seen a storm like this one.  Their mother turned to the kids and said, “The world is ending.”

Once the hurricane moved inland, it weakened significantly, as tropical systems do.  The storm had already passed through Mississippi and west TN before moving east across Kentucky. Few paid much attention to what was left of the storm as it traversed across Kentucky. As the remnants of the storm were forced to rise over the mountains of West Virginia, they were met by a weak cold front. The combination of the two led to devastating flash floods in the mountains. Whole communities vanished under mudslides. At least 153 lost their lives, with 123 in one county alone! To this day, it is the worst natural disaster to have ever occurred in the state.  One location recorded 5 inches of rain in 30 minutes!

As we keep our eyes on the tropics every year, many of us are reminded of how big of a deal these tropical forecasts are to folks. Today, we have incredible satellites and technology we couldn’t have dreamed of having in 1969. Still, we know all these things only tell us what’s coming. How people prepare and react is something not even the best technology can predict. We found that out with Katrina. The anniversary of that historic storm is coming in only ten days.

I’m watching several disturbances now in the southern Atlantic. All of them need to be watched. I’ll keep you posted! None of them appear to be a threat for at least another week.

And I’ll keep an eye on that eclipse forecast, too!

Some of you probably looked out your windows a while ago and thought the apocalypse had arrived! But, alas, I can assure you it was nothing to worry about. We’re seeing heavy showers develop along an old boundary this morning that stretches right along Interstate 40. These showers are developing in this very humid, unstable air mass that we’ve had in place for two weeks now. Those clouds you saw out your window were what we call “shelf clouds”. They literally look like a big shelf of clouds moving at you. So, thunderstorms have updrafts (that’s what builds the clouds…rising air) and downdrafts (sinking air). The downdrafts are where you get the rain. That’s the falling, cooler air. Sometimes these downdrafts drop to the ground and are forceful enough to then spread out along the ground. That’s what happened to us this morning.  A very heavy shower was over the interstate and the downdraft hit the ground and spread this way. We call the boundary along that downdraft an “outflow boundary.” These outflow boundaries act as little cold fronts and often times they kick up new showers and storms. Our’s is doing just that. I circled TAP on the radar image below and the outflow boundary is what looks like a cold front. Notice the new showers developing along that boundary. Pretty neat, huh?

Here’s a pic I took of the shelf cloud and its associated outflow boundary moving toward TAP.  Sorry for the glare of our windows.

Expect more showers and storms as we go through the day, though they should become more isolated. Tomorrow should be much of the same. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look drier now, before more showers and storms move in for eclipse day. The forecast for Monday will feature isolated to scattered showers and storms. Hopefully this forecast will change, but the way this summer is going, I wouldn’t count on it. Too bad the ellipse couldn’t have happened this time last year, when we were in that drought (ha).

I did want to mention that the tropics are about to get crazy! If you have plans that take you toward the coasts in about a week, check with me first! We’re about to enter a very active pattern and I would be really surprised if the US escapes a land-falling storm over the next two weeks. Check out this map! Three disturbances are now in the southern Atlantic with moderate chances of becoming tropical storms. The next one will be Harvey.  Hurricane Gert is moving out to sea and is no threat to anyone.

You all have a fantastic day and let me know if you have any weather questions at all!

 

 

Are you starting to wonder when we’ll ever have a two or three-day streak of dry days? Me too. It sure isn’t going to happen this week. Rain and storm chances will be with us through Friday. Highs each day will be in the lower 80s. Humidity will be high, too, so keep that in mind if you’re outside working or exercising. I’m keeping my eye on a big complex of showers and storms in Arkansas this morning. Guess where it’s heading? If it holds together it should be arriving this evening sometime.  Even if it doesn’t hold together, remnants from it will likely generate new showers/storms.

The tropics continue to show signs of increasing activity. We have a hurricane and three disturbances to watch! I’ll keep an eye on all of them and let you know as soon as any look to be a threat to the US.  Look how active that map is getting! Notice that they’re all pointing in the direction of the US. Hopefully, that will change as we go through time. It’s been 12 years since the US had a major hurricane make landfall.

I have some very exciting news to share this morning.  I’ve been invited by the Fentress Courier to write a weekly article for them about the weather! It’s a small paper, but I’m anxious to see where this goes. I appreciate all of you who have suggested I write more and for complimenting me on my weather tid-bits that I get to share with you here.  I’m looking forward to seeing how the readers of the Courier like my weather stories. My first article publishes on Aug 23. I’ll let you know how it goes!

By the way, the models are looking better for the eclipse. It still looks trivial, with a slight chance of storms and partly cloudy skies, but it looks a bit better to me this morning. I’ll keep you posted!

For the third week in a row, we remain locked into a very unsettled weather pattern. We’re already seeing numerous showers and storms to our southwest that will be moving in within the next couple of hours. If you plan on going out for lunch, you better prepare for rain.

Showers and storms will continue off-and-on tomorrow, though they should be less widespread than today. Wednesday looks to be the driest day of the week , but we still can’t rule out a stray shower or storm. Rain chances tick back up for Thursday and those chances will remain with us, at about 50% coverage, through Friday. Right now, the weekend looks a bit drier but it’s a bit too far out to know anything for sure.

We’re now a week away from the eclipse! Models are looking a bit better for that day now. It looks like we may get a break just in time to see the eclipse. I’ll keep you posted as we go through the week. Fingers crossed!

Yesterday, Tropical Storm Gert formed in the Atlantic. The storm is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, though it will stay out to sea and not affect the US. We will soon have yet another tropical storm (it’s that time of year!) and it will need to be watched. Currently, it’s just a disturbance off the coast of Africa but all models steer it into the Caribbean by next weekend. I’ll keep an eye on it!

We’re coming up on some significant hurricane anniversaries. The last two weeks of August and the first two weeks of September are notorious for historical landfalls. I’ll share those as we come to them. There are some incredible stories from these storms, and you’ll wonder why anyone would ever live on the coast.

You all have a great day and try to stay dry!