Meteorologist Mark

The big weather headline today is Tropical Story Cindy. The storm now has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is drifting slowly northwest at 7 mph. The storm should make landfall on the Louisiana-Texas border later tonight. The storm will then move northward and get shoved to the northeast by a weak cold front. That will take the center of the storm right over the top of Middle TN on Friday and Friday night. Gusty winds and very heavy rainfall are likely. All areas should see close to 2″ of rain, with isolated areas seeing up to 4″ of rain. With the center of the storm passing so close to us, we can’t rule out an isolated, weak tornado Friday night.

For today, we’ll see increasing clouds from Tropical Storm Cindy. We’ll also see humidity increasing as the storm moves a very tropical airmass into our neck of the woods. I think we’ll stay dry today and tonight, with showers increasing through the day on Thursday. Rain should be light through the day and night Thursday. By Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Cindy gets much closer and winds will increase to around 30 mph. Rainfall will be heavy at times both Friday and Friday night. On Saturday, the system begins pulling to the east of us and we should start to gradually dry out. Sunday looks nice, with lower humidity and highs near 80.  So, if you’re yard needs mowing you better mow it today! It’ll be a while before you get to do that again.

Let me know if you have any questions!

 

We continue to monitor the tropics, with a particular interest in what is happening in the Gulf of Mexico. The system has now made it’s way to the central Gulf and is already producing heavy rain along the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is well away from the center of the storm. The system remained disorganized overnight and has yet to be named. If named, the storm will be Cindy. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a  more organized tropical storm, the system will produce life-threatening floods along coastal areas, as well as wind gusts to 50 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday night somewhere between Houston and New Orleans. The system will then move north and get caught up and steered by a cold front, which will likely shove all that moisture our way. We could get some decent rains from this system, with some models predicting 2-4″ for us. We’ll be working out the specifics of that, though, over the next 24 hours or so.

Meanwhile, today and tomorrow will be beautiful! Highs will be around 80, with light breezes.  You’ll notice some beautiful high, thin clouds moving over. Those are actually from the tropical system in the Gulf! These clouds usually make for some gorgeous sunsets and just beautiful skies all the way around. The humidity picks up in earnest on Wednesday, setting the stage for tropical rain showers and storms to develop on Thursday. Thursday-Saturday look quite wet at this point, with things possibly drying out on Sunday.

Let me know if you have questions! Here is the map of the projected path as of this morning. With this track, we could get some decent rainfall, for sure.

This is the picture I took this morning out the office window, looking south over downtown Crossville. Those beautiful tropical clouds….

We’ve been fortunate to have avoided the heaviest rains here on the plateau over the past 24 hours. Some parts of Middle TN have picked up close to 4 inches of rain. A heavy t-storm in northern Cumberland County dropped up to 1/2 inch of rain on those folks Sunday afternoon. We still have a chance for showers and a storm today, as the cold front slowly makes it way across the region. By evening, we should be left with just a spotty shower. Tonight, we drop into the upper 50s under clearing skies. Those clearing skies could lead to some fog Tuesday morning, so be aware of that. On Tuesday, those clear skies will allow us to warm to near 80 degrees with lower humidity! That nice weather repeats for Wednesday. By Thursday, the humidity begins moving back in, leading to an isolated afternoon/evening t-storm.

Right now, the Thursday night-Saturday time period is especially tricky to predict. We have a tropical system that is developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico today and that will track northward as we go through the week. By the second half of this week, we could be looking at some substantial rainfall if that system tracks over us, as some models are suggesting.  We do have to be mindful of tropical systems, even in June. On this date in 1972, hurricane Agnes made landfall in Florida and eventually swept up the entire eastern seaboard. Total damages were higher from this one storm than from all the storms over the previous six years combined. This included damages from Camille that hit the Mississippi Coast as a cat 5 in 1969! I’ll keep an eye on all of it and you let me know if you have any questions!

**3:00p.m. Update** Flash flood watch in effect for Sunday night through Monday afternoon**

As I said yesterday, when this atmosphere is this hot and humid, it doesn’t take much to set of a shower or t-storm. We’re already seeing some activity trying to develop in Middle TN, even more back in western KY, and still more back over Oklahoma and Arkansas. All activity is slowly moving eastward toward the plateau. I still think MOST of the activity will hold off until tonight, but if you have outdoor plans anytime today, you’ll need to check on that radar from time to time. Also, if you hear thunder you’re close enough to be lightning struck and you should move all activities indoors. The only thing being barbecued had better be what’s on the grill! Any storm that does fire off today, and especially tonight, is capable of becoming severe, with damaging winds the main threat.

We continue to monitor the tropics, as well. The system in the Atlantic is looking a bit less threatening this morning, but still needs to be watched over the coming week. The system that will be entering the southern Gulf continues to look menacing and will certainly be watched very closely over the next couple of days. This system has the potential to make landfall anywhere along the Gulf Coast sometime next week.

The map below shows the flash flood watch for Middle TN (dark green) for Sunday night.