Meteorologist Mark

First of all, the main threat has passed. Those of you in the southern half of Cumberland are perfectly fine, including Crossville. The rest of us are looking much better!

A long-track supercell developed over near Nashville, in a very unstable atmosphere. That storm tracked all the way to the plateau, prompting tornado warnings for Rinnie and Clarkrange. Some others of you had hail.

That storm is now over in Morgan County. Now, just general t-storms dot the radar for Middle TN.

What an unusual situation! Storms don’t normally track this far, especially in this environment. Again, just general t-storms remain on radar at this time.

WHAT: A strong storm or two

WHEN: After midnight

WHERE: The entire plateau

MAIN THREAT: Small hail and gusty winds

I thought I would give a quick update on storms we may see overnight. The 7:00 pm update from the Storm Prediction Center keeps the Cumberland Plateau in the marginal risk for severe storms tonight. That is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories. It implies that a storm or two could be on the stronger side.

Currently, tornado watches are in effect for portions of western Kentucky and West Tennessee (yellow-shaded counties). We are NOT expecting storms to be that severe here tonight. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has a zero chance for tornadoes here, as they should. Things are much warmer and more unstable within and around the tornado watch than they are here. For instance, Memphis is 67 degrees at this hour, while Crossville is 49 degrees.

The main threat we would face is gusty winds and some small hail. In other words, perhaps a storm or two could still be on the strong side when it gets here. Temps decrease rapidly with height right now and that could lead to some small hail in the stronger storms.

Our temps will stay around 50 overnight. That warm front you see draped across the state on the radar above will keep us on the warmer side of things and keep temps from dropping too much.

 

We are in a bit of a break from the heaviest rainfall. All we see across Middle TN are some scattered light showers. This should be the case through the afternoon for our region.

Later this evening, storms will erupt across parts of eastern Arkansas. Those will charge eastward. In anticipation of this activity, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe storms for that area.

In the latest update, they have extended that threat eastward. The slight risk now reaches western Putnam County. We are now in the marginal risk for severe storms across the plateau. The marginal risk is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories.

I still don’t think we have much to worry about. Certainly, the marginal risk is the lowest of the risk categories. If, however, you have plans that take you or someone you know toward Nashville this evening, please pay attention to the forecast. Some of the storms back over in that area could produce a brief tornado. Large hail is an even greater threat from Nashville westward.

As for us here on the plateau, I think general thunderstorms will be the rule for our night. I can’t rule out a strong storm or two but our overall threat is quite low. That is good news! Our tornado threat is practically zero.

I’ll be keeping an eye on it and I’ll let you know if anything changes.

You all take care!

A changeable forecast for a changeable month

Weather Headlines

Rain, possibly heavy at times, is likely through Tuesday.

Rain may return with a new system on Thursday

The weekend is looking nice (so far)

Main threats

Just be careful with any ponding of water on roadways in heavier downpours. Rainfall amount with this week’s systems continues to trend downward! That is very good news. Now, 2-3 inches of rain is expected. That’s still a lot of rain, but it sure beats 4-6 inches!

The rain will be spread out over a long enough period of time to avoid major, widespread flooding issues. That’s also very good news!

Summary

The forecast is a changeable one! Last week, it looked like we would be treading water this week….lots and lots of water. At one point, guidance even suggested 6-8 inches of rain. I always called for 4-6 inches. Now, it’s looking more and more like we’ll be looking at 2-3 inches of rain this week. That’s a break we’ll take!

The other good news for us is the the stronger storms should stay well to our west. If you have travel plans today that take you to Nashville or West TN, be advised that strong to severe storms are possible there today. That activity should stay well to our west.

As for us, rain will be off and on through tomorrow. Again, some of that rain could be a bit heavy, but widespread flooding issues are not anticipated.

We may get a break on Wednesday, before another storm system moves in with light rain on Thursday. That’s an iffy forecast, so stay tuned. I could see that system missing us, but we’ll wait for more info before we nail down that forecast.

Keep your fingers crossed, because right now the weekend is looking good. Let’s hope the changeable March forecast keeps that true!

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Most of the advisories you see on the map below are for wind, whether it be a wind advisory (blue) or a high wind warning (a level above advisory that you see in red). The only exceptions are for winter weather advisories in the mountains of southern California, and all the river flooding warnings in the Southeast.

Records

A tremendous snow storm buried the state of North Carolina under more than a foot of snow on this day in 1927. In fact, the average snow depth across the state was 14 inches of snow. Raleigh had 17.8 inches of snow, officially. That set a new 24-hour snow record for that city. Some locations in the state had nearly three feet of snow!

Monday Sun Day

How much energy is produced by the sun? Well, you would have to detonate 100,000,000,000 tons of dynamite every second to match the equivalent energy produced by the sun. That’s a lot of zeroes!

NASA News

It has now been two years since I experienced by first rocket launch! That was the launch of the GOES-17 satellite that provides incredible satellite imagery for the western US and the Pacific. I even had exclusive access to the roof of the Vehicle Assembly Building (pictured below) on NASA’s campus to watch the launch from!

In the previous January, I had the opportunity to see the satellite in its holding facility on NASA’s campus. What an experience that was! I knew that would have to be my first rocket launch and indeed it was! The satellite is the big black square thing you see behind me.

My life has been changed ever since this day. I watched this launch with a press pass but it sparked my interest in NASA Socials. I’ve since been on several of those trips and have met people that have changed my life. I am forever grateful for all these experiences and I absolutely cannot wait to see what’s next!

News

The next MASTER science class for kids will be Monday, March 23rd at 4:30 pm at Roane State Community College in Crossville. The topic is yet to be determined but I will let you know as soon I get that nailed down. I’m thinking it will have a LOT to do with the NASA Social that I plan to attend this week in Sandusky, Ohio! Stay tuned!

I’ll announce when registration is open. That will open up one week prior to class. Remember, you must register for the FREE course. Class is about an hour long.

You all have a great day!