Meteorologist Mark

First of all, I hope you’re having a wonderful 4th of July week! If you have outdoor plans, please keep an eye on the radar and the sky. We will be dodging scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong, maybe even briefly severe, both this afternoon/evening and Tuesday afternoon/evening. I’m already seeing a complex of showers and t-storms moving into west TN. Those storms are showing more organization and I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to thrive in this hot and humid environment. Those would be getting to the plateau later this afternoon, probably around 3:00 or so. So, again, this isn’t going to be a total washout either today or tomorrow, but you definitely need to be mindful of these scattered storms. Hopefully, the 4th of July fireworks won’t be affected too much. Below is the radar at about 9:00a.m.  Notice those storms near Memphis, moving east.

Looking ahead to Wednesday through Friday, we’ll still be dealing with scattered afternoon/evening storms, with the greatest chance being Thursday, the least chance being Friday. We’re also watching the tropics. There’s a system waaayyyy out there, so we’ve got a week to watch it. It will likely become our next named storm. It bears watching.

 

We continue to have a chance for showers and storms for your Saturday. The best chances of storms comes this afternoon and evening. Some of those storms could be rather intense, so be aware of that. Of course, all storms pose a lightning risk and that is always something to look out for. Sunday looks much drier and many of us won’t see any rain on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday is back to typical isolated to scattered showers and storms. These heat-of-the-day storms usually die off at sunset, so hopefully that will be the case on the 4th of July of fireworks festivities.

At 11:05 a.m we’re seeing some storms developing south of Nashville that will be moving toward the plateau over the next few hours. Just keep an eye to the sky and if you hear thunder, go indoors.

 

We certainly were lucky at the picnic yesterday! Thankfully, we only had to deal with one good shower and then it was an absolutely beautiful evening for a picnic! Today, there’ll be many more showers and storms around. I’m also keeping an eye on a system west of us that may bring some storms late this evening.  If this holds together, we could be dealing with some strong storms tonight.

Radar at 8:45 a.m.

That’s pretty much the way tomorrow is going to be too. We just have to be mindful of showers and storms. They won’t last all day and not everyone will get them. Unlike yesterday, today and tomorrow’s storms will have a lightning threat, so always be on the lookout for that. Nailing down particular timing of storms on Saturday is difficult, at best, but later in the afternoon and evening will be the best chance of seeing those.

On Sunday, things look drier, though we still can’t rule out an afternoon/evening shower or storm with the heat and humidity that will be around. Highs today and through the 4th will be in the low 80s but the humidity will be really high. At this time, it looks like the forecast for both Monday and Tuesday will feature hot and humid weather, with isolated afternoon/evening storms. That means that fireworks celebrations should be ok, as t-storm activity usually dies down significantly at sunset. I’ll keep an eye on it, though!

Don’t forget to check https://meteorologistmark.com/ for weekend updates on the weather! I basically post my weather blog posts that you see here to that site through the week, so that others outside of TAP can see it, but you can’t get weekend updates here, so I post them on my personal blog. You can also follow me on Facebook!

Below is a pic I took over Lake Tansi during our picnic. We couldn’t have asked for better weather! You all have a great weekend!

 

 

Will it rain today? Yes. Will it rain on our Trade-A-Plane picnic? Probably not. I wish I could be more specific but it’s impossible with this scenario. I just looked at this morning’s model runs and they suggest about a 40% coverage of t-storms this afternoon. The interesting part is that the more reliable model moves nearly all the activity out of here by 5:00 p.m., which would be perfect!

I do think that we’ll see a lot of these clouds sticking around, but I’d much rather have the shade of cloud cover than that hot June sun beating down on us all evening. We’ll just have to keep an eye on things.

Tonight, showers and storms may sneak up here from the south. We’re actually sandwiched in between a very active pattern for the Gulf Coast, and a very active pattern stretching form Oklahoma to Chicago.  Friday and Saturday both will feature showers and t-storms, but they won’t hit everyone and they’ll be mostly in the afternoon and evenings. On Saturday, the ingredients for strong storms are a bit more present, so we’ll have to watch those storms. If I had outdoor plans this weekend I’d either plan them for Sunday, when storms are more isolated, or I’d plan things in the morning. Otherwise, you better have a back-up plan for rain, just in case!

For Monday and Tuesday it looks like more isolated showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, and very typical of summertime weather. But, I’ll keep you posted and let you know if anything changes with that.

Check out this tornado yesterday evening in Iowa! Now that’s a picture, folks! More severe wx is expected today for Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois.