Meteorologist Mark

After a pleasant morning, with lows in the lower 60s, we’re heating up fast out there, folks! Highs today will reach for 90, but will likely fall short by a degree or two. I expect much of the same tomorrow. I think Friday will be our hottest day, with many areas hitting 90-92 degrees.  And we can never completely rule out a rogue t-storm in this heat and humidity. I think you’re going to really notice that humidity kicking in by this afternoon. And it will be even worse tomorrow and Friday. By Saturday, we’ll get a few more clouds around as this high pressure begins to break down. That will lead to a few more storms in the afternoon. We should all see a storm by Monday, as both Sunday and Monday will give us about 50% chances of t-storms. That will be the result of a cold front that will be moving through. That front will bring lower humidity by the middle of next week!

I saw something cool in weather news that some of you may be interested in. The NWS is experimenting with a new product that may give us much more time to prepare for severe weather. The product was tested in Oklahoma this past spring and it was very successful. One town had 90 mins to prepare for a tornado! The way it would work is that it relies on high resolution model data that can tell us where and when storms are going to fire off. We use this model ALL THE TIME storm chasing and it’s very reliable. It only predicts out for several hours at a time, whereas other models will predict out to a week or more. Based on this high resolution model data, a special weather statement would be issued that would tell you that there is a high probability of tornadoes in your neighborhood. For instance, we get our tornadoes from the southwest (usually). If the model predicts supercells in southern Middle TN that will track northeastward, and these supercells are to form at 2:00 p.m., then a special weather statement would be issued for Crossville that would warn of an especially high risk for tornadoes by 5:00 p.m.  They plan to use these first for public events, such as football games, where thousands of people all gather in one spot.

It’ll be interesting to see how this goes! Below is a graphic of what the new warnings would look like.

The heat is on again today, folks! Interestingly, we saw a couple of heavy showers southeast of Ozone Falls this morning. Those have since dissipated. We could see a very isolated storm over the next several days, which is expected when you have this much heat and humidity around. Highs today will climb into the mid 80s, then into the upper 80s/lower 90s for Wednesday and right on through the weekend. Overnight lows will be mild as well, hovering around 70 degrees. Early indications are that we could see another front come in early next week that may bring a relief to the heat and humidity. I’ll keep you posted.

Our temps aren’t the only thing heating up! The tropics are getting active too. Tropical Storm Don developed yesterday evening out in the Atlantic. It’s path takes it along the northern coast of South America, with weakening indicated in about 2 days. Another disturbance behind Don could develop into Tropical Storm Emily within the next couple of days. That storm should stay out to sea and anything that develops should move into a more hostile environment in about three days. The Pacific is really getting fired up too! There’s multiple systems over there, but none appear to be any direct threat to land at this time.

Emily would develop where you see the orange ‘x’.

The National Weather Service Nashville just released the following special weather statement concerning this week’s heat wave. It ends with some good tips for beating the heat.

…The first significant heat wave of the summer arrives late
this week and continues over the weekend…

As an upper level area of high pressure builds over the Mid-State
this week, our temperatures will be on the rise. Not only will
the afternoons become hotter, the nights will become increasingly
warm and muggy too.

From the western edge of the Cumberland Plateau to the Tennessee
River, high temperatures in the mid 90s will become common, and
maximum afternoon heat index values will creep into the 100 to
105 degree range. This will be some of the hottest weather of the
summer so far, and hot weather safety will become increasingly
important.

Even folks along the Cumberland Plateau will see maximum heat
index values in the middle 90s.

Many spots, especially along and west of Interstate 65, will see
nighttime temperatures fall no lower than the middle 70s.

Following are some hot weather safety rules…

Never…ever…leave a child or animal in a hot car…not even
for a minute. Dozens of infants and untold numbers of pets die
every year in hot vehicles.

Check on the elderly and ensure they are coping well with the
heat.

Slow down, and, take a break. Find a place to cool off, in a
shaded spot or in an air conditioned building.

Listen to your body, and know the warning signs of heat stress
and heat stroke.

Wear lightweight, loose fitting, and light colored clothing to
reflect heat.”

The heat is on, folks! Actually, temps are pretty much what we would expect for the second half of July. High temps will be running anywhere from two to five degrees above normal. It could certainly be worse! High temps through Wednesday will be in the 86-88 degree range, climbing closer to 90 by Thursday and on through the weekend. Humidity won’t be too bad today and tomorrow, but it will start returning in earnest by the end of the week.  Overnight lows to start the week will be in the mid 60s, but climbing to the lower 70s by the end of the week, thanks to more humid nights by then. Rain chances each day this week are very low. Of course, you can’t rule out an isolated heat-of-the-day pop up storm, but those will be very isolated at best.  It’s a good week to be on the lake!

I was looking at some of the weather events for our area for this time of year and found some interesting info. On July 16, 1980 Crossville hit 101 degrees, and that was the first time a temp of 100 had ever been officially recorded in Crossville.  That was a hot year! That same heat wave caused Crossville to break records every day of this week! Thank goodness it’s not 1980!

I’ve attached a graphic below to remind you of the heat safety rules. Stay cool out there!