Month: August 2018

Main threats

Today: Possible isolated strong storms this afternoon and evening.

Summary

Today is a big day for me! All county officials who were elected in the August 2nd election will be sworn in today at 4:00 at the Old Courthouse. It should be quite the experience!

As for our weather, we’ll see scattered showers and storms again today. I expect it to be very similar to yesterday. Some folks had downpours yesterday, others of us didn’t even get enough to trip the rain gauge. Some of the storms this afternoon/evening could be strong, with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

By this weekend, we slip back into a very summer-like pattern, with only isolated afternoon/evening storms possible. Most of us should stay dry. The humidity will be high, so it will feel a bit hotter than those mid 80s you see on the five-day outlook above.

That summer-like pattern will hold right on through our Labor Day holiday. The last holiday of the summer season will feel a whole like summer!

Discussion

There’s really not a whole lot to add here. The culprit for today’s showers and storms, as well as yesterday’s, is a weak, nearly washed-out frontal boundary that is trying to move through. It will fade out over TN and that will keep our weather unsettled for today.

Tropics

The tropics continue to look like they are waking up. We have a disturbance that we will watch very closely as it enters the Gulf over the next few days. That may even affect our weather at some point next week. Stay tuned.

We also have another disturbance way out in the Atlantic (“six”). It will likely become our next named storm. No worries, though. Models show this system moving north and out to sea over the next several days. What is worrisome is that there are several more disturbances behind this one that will certainly bear watching over the next one to two weeks. I’ll keep you posted! September is the peak of hurricane season.

Records

This is a record I meant to mention a couple of days ago but it is worth mentioning even now. Many of you have probably been enjoying the fair this week. I can tell you that the fair was in town on this date in 1990. Is my memory that awesome, you ask? Nope. It’s because that was the year the fair was in town for one of the worst hailstorms Crossville has ever experienced. Remember it?

By August 31, the fair was moving out. The hailstorm hit on the 29th.  It wasn’t quite time for the fair to leave, but they were so damaged from the hail that they had to close early. Of all weeks to be in Crossville and they had to be here for that hailstorm. Hail broke nearly every light at the fair and shards of glass covered the ground. The hail was as large as softballs, with golfball being the most common size. As if that weren’t bad enough, the hail rode on wind gusts of up to 75 mph. Eleven people were injured.

What was very interesting is that there were numerous reports of hail in the shape of bricks. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such hail reports since that, though there are other odd reports of weird-shaped hail that I’ve seen since.

The hail busted out car windshields and left downtown Crossville a mess. Leaves were stripped off trees and needles were stripped off pines. I remember seeing weeds on the sides of the roads that had been shredded. That was quite the storm for us, folks!

The storm was the southern-most storm to develop in association with a very strong late-August system that was swinging through the Ohio Valley. This same system actually produced a few tornadoes to our north with storms that developed there, but there was never a confirmed tornado with our hailstorm. Does that mean there wasn’t one? Absolutely not. Keep in mind that this was in 1991 and Doppler radar, along with improvements to that system, are much, much more sophisticated today and might have picked up on rotation a bit better that radars of the early 90s.  Never the less, the main story was the hail and very strong straight-line winds.

Thankfully, we don’t have anything like that to worry about with today’s storms. We just don’t have the environment for large hail.

You all have a great day. Be sure and keep all of us elected officials in mind as we take on our various, new responsibilities. May we serve well and successfully. I think we can all say “amen” to that!

No five day to display

Summary

We saw numerous showers and storms across the western end of the state on Wednesday and that activity is expected to shift toward us today. Therefore, look for numerous showers and storms today. Those may continue into our evening hours and again on Friday. Any outdoor activities either one of those days should be reconsidered.

There are no indications of widespread severe weather, so at least we don’t have that to worry about too much. I kept an eye on the radar yesterday and didn’t notice many warnings issued at all. Of course, any storm this time of year could always be strong to briefly severe.

By the weekend we should transition back to a hot and humid summer-like pattern, with only isolated afternoon/evening t-storms possible.

Tropics

Things may be about to get active in the tropics. Yesterday, we saw numerous storms develop across the northern Gulf. Nothing is expected to develop into a storm there in the near future, but seeing so much unsettled weather there tells us the atmosphere is primed for anything that could enter the Gulf. We’re watching such a system right now in the Caribbean that is encountering very harsh conditions right now. However, as this system moves into the Gulf within the next week, we could see it become better organized. Anyone with travel plans to the coast over the Labor Day weekend should stay abreast to any forecast changes.

Models are also indicating that we may have several disturbances to watch next week across the Atlantic. This is historically a very active time for the tropics and we have to keep an eye on anything that develops in the Gulf or Atlantic.

Records

Speaking of this being a historically active week for the tropics….

On this day in 2005 the remnants of Katrina brought 40 mph winds and an inch of rain to Crossville. The storm in previous days had devastated parts of the Gulf Coast, including the catastrophic flooding in the New Orleans area due to levee breaks.

The less publicized disaster from Katrina was her impact to the Mississippi Gulf Coast, where the storm made landfall. Fortunately, the worst part of Katrina missed New Orleans. However, because of levee breaks all the media’s attention was drawn to that city. Meanwhile, the Mississippi Gulf Coast lost nearly 300 citizens and was absolutely devastated by a 30-foot storm surge.

Another reason for the lack of media attention to the Mississippi Gulf Coast was because their state’s emergency management agency is one of the best in the nation. Louisiana’s was the worst. Due to an impeccable disaster response plan, the media had little to say about the Mississippi response. Louisiana’s complete failure at the emergency management level led to a wealth of media stories.

When I worked for TEMA, we had to help Louisiana and FEMA with the evacuation of New Orleans for Hurricane Gustav in 2008, a storm that was feared to be as bad as Katrina. Sadly we learned (the hard way!) that little had changed with emergency management plans for Louisiana storms. Thankfully, Gustav was not as bad as Katrina and the city of New Orleans was spared.

On this day in 1839 a hurricane made landfall on the North Carolina coast. That, in itself, is not that unusual. What was very, very unusual was that as the storm moved northward it encountered a very strong late-August cold front. As the weakening hurricane reached New England, the precipitation on the back side of the storm turned to snow, whitening the Catskill Mountains!

Some of you may remember when Hurricane Sandy met up with a cold front, as well. That was the end of October of 2012. I will never forget models (several days out) showing that storm throwing snow all the way west to Crossville.  That obviously didn’t happen but it did snow in the higher elevations of the Smokies with that storm. That’s probably the closest we have ever come to a big October snow event.

Special note: Thank you for your patience in waiting on the blog to resume. I also ask that you continue to remember my family as we deal with my grandmother’s recovery from her nearly life-ending illness. Pictured below is my grandmother on the night of my election, August 2. She suddenly fell ill from hypoxia on August 17th and entered ICU at Crossville. On August 22 we were released from ICU and moved to Cookeville, where better respiratory resources are located. On the night of the 23rd we nearly lost her when something occurred that no one has yet to be able to explain. The episode mimicked a stroke, though there are no signs a stroke occurred. We remain at Cookeville. We stay by her side 24-hours a day, with me staying the nights and other family helping during the day. She is slowly on the mend and we hope and pray we are finished with devastating setbacks.

You all be sure and have a great day.

 

Blogs will resume soon. Thank you so much for your patience and understanding during this very difficult time for my family. My grandmother has been very ill and I have been helping out, often staying nights with her at the hospital. Thankfully, she is doing much better tonight. Please join me in praying that this good trend continues.

If all continues to go well, blogs could resume as soon as Thursday.

No five day to display

Summary

You just can’t order better weather for the end of August, folks. We are definitely getting that taste of fall that models have advertised for over a week. Get out and enjoy it!

This fall-like weather will continue on through tomorrow. By Saturday, temps and humidity will begin creeping up. That rise in heat and humidity will really be felt on Sunday. As that hot/humid airmass moves back in, we could see an isolated shower/storm on Saturday.

Sunday looks mostly dry at this point but hot, with humid highs in the 80s. We start bringing back afternoon/evening t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday.

The bottom line is that fall is here today and tomorrow, followed by a transition back to summer that will be followed by several days of hot/humid summer-like conditions.

Tropics

We’ve got a little something to watch in the Atlantic again. It’s not even off the coast of Africa yet, but there are strong indications that this disturbance may develop into a storm in the Atlantic within the next 5 days.

Records

As meteorologists, we always look at the atmosphere in layers. The surface is one of those layers. Sometimes, conditions are favorable for thunderstorms in the layers up off the surface, while the air here at the surface the air is too dry to support rainfall. The rain falls from clouds and evaporates before it hits the ground. This is called virga.

We don’t see that too much around here because we’re usually humid enough to allow rain to make it to the ground. In desert environments they see virga quite often.

Washington State is like us in that they are usually humid enough for rain to make it to the surface. However, on this day in 1970 their surface air was too dry for rain but conditions in the other layers of the atmosphere were favorable for storms. This resulted in thunderstorms that were producing lightning but no rainfall at the surface. The lightning doesn’t care how dry the air is at the surface.

This scenario led to an outbreak of wildfires across Washington state. By the time all was said and done, 100,000 acres had been torched.

This scenario sets wildfires across the Rocky Mountains quite often in the summer and fall months. The atmosphere supports storms, but dry air at the surface won’t allow the rain from the storms to make it to the surface. That means you get lots of lightning but no rainfall, which leads to wildfires.

News

Hurricane Lane will just miss most of the Hawaii islands, however, there will be significant impacts to many of the islands because of the storm’s close proximity to the islands. A storm need not make landfall to cause major problems. This is the worst storm to threaten them since 1992. You may follow live-streaming coverage from a tv station in Hawaii at https://www.facebook.com/khon2news/videos/332077104033068/

You all have a great day.