Baldwin’s Sunday Story Wx Blog for Sept. 20

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Hazardous weather is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today – Wednesday: Sunny and pleasant days.

Thursday – Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy , with a chance for a shower, as “Beta” approaches the area. This is dependent upon Beta’s track.

Today’s Choice of Outdoor Activity

It’s a fine day to be outside. It’s also a find day to chill in the hammock.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

The weather for today through Wednesday looks perfect. After that, it just depends on the track of Beta. Regardless of where the storm tracks, by the time it gets into our neck of the woods it will likely be so washed and weak, that it is highly unlikely that we would see much rainfall. Areas south of I-40 would likely have better rain chances than areas north of the interstate. I’ll keep an eye on all that.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 110° at Brawley, California

Low: 19° at Grayling, Michigan

Tropics

It now looks like Tropical Storm Beta will make landfall on the Texas coast early this week. The storm should then turn northeastward and may end up in our neck of the woods at the end of the week. That could bring us some showers. That track could easily change, so stay tuned.

We now have an area to watch off the Florida east coast, though its chance for development is only at 10%. Farther east, Hurricane Teddy will move toward Bermuda and eventually Nova Scotia. Wilfred is expected to weaken into a depression but that will still need to be monitored closely. Sometimes those systems reorganize as they trek westward. And then the remnants of Paulette (orange X) may redevelop this week. That system would continue to be named Paulette, since it has never lost its circulation.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

It’s a rather quiet day across the country, though some unsettled weather can be found in the Southeast, as Tropical Storm Beta spins in the Gulf.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The threat for heavy rainfall can be found along the Texas coast and western Louisiana coast, as Tropical Storm Beta moves closer to the coastline.

 On This Day

On this day in 1845, a tornado traveled 275 miles across Lake Ontario, New York and Lake Champlain.

Sunday Story

The naming of tropical systems began in 1953. At that time, storms were only given female names. By 1978, the use of alternating male and female names began. 

Naming the storms makes it easier to communicate information about the storm, especially when there are multiple storms threatening at once. Naming also helps when documenting a storm’s effects afterwards. 

While there are 26 letters in the alphabet, only 21 names are derived from those letters. The letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z have no names for them. 

During the historic 2005 outbreak of tropical storms and hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center ran out of names for storms for the first time since naming began. When all 21 names are used, the naming system defaults to the Greek alphabet, beginning with Alpha, then Beta, and so forth. There are 24 Greek letters available. 

The 2020 season will be the second time that we have exhausted our alphabet names and resort to the Greek alphabet. This season is on track to contain the most named storms of any season on record. 

A combination of factors must come together to create a record season. Warm ocean temperatures are needed. Water temperatures of at least 80 degrees are required to sustain a hurricane. That warm water evaporates easily into the air, creating a very humid air mass that fuels storms.

The atmosphere must cooperate, too. Tropical systems need a moist atmosphere, free of any dry air intrusions of any kind. If the winds are too strong in the atmosphere, the storm will tear apart. Winds must be light throughout the atmosphere to sustain the bigger storms. 

Hurricanes are the most powerful storms on earth. Let’s just hope and pray that future storms this season keep that power out at sea.  

You all have a great day!

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Baldwin’s Saturday Wx Blog for Sept. 19

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Hazardous weather is not expected for the next seven days.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Skies becoming partly cloudy. A pleasant day.

Sunday – Wednesday: Mostly sunny and quite nice.

Thursday – Friday: Partly cloudy. It should stay nice but we’ll keep an eye on “Beta” in the Gulf. It could begin bringing a shower or two by Friday. Right now, that looks unlikely. I’ll keep an eye on things.

Today’s Choice of Outdoor Activity

Any outdoor activity will do today, but my choice would be hiking! Get outside and enjoy this beautiful weather . It’ll make ya feel better! I’ll be out running and wrapping up the training for my half marathon next Saturday in Viola, TN.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

While I’ll have to keep an eye on Beta in the Gulf and the possibility (though slim) that it could bring us some showers by the end of the week or weekend, the rest of this forecast is absolutely perfect for outdoor work. And more than likely, Beta will stay away from us for this forecast period.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 112° at both Mecca and Ocotillo Wells, California

Low: 19° at Brimson, Minnesota

Tropics

Beta will take its time along the Gulf Coast, leading to a high risk for flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow. Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the storm all day, giving us better info.

Hurricane Teddy will make a run for Bermuda. Hopefully, it will pass to their east, as forecast. That would keep the worst weather away from the islands. Then, the storm makes a run for Nova Scotia and could be quiet the storm for them!

We still have Wilfred in the eastern Atlantic, but that system may degenerate in the coming days and just dissipate. The orange shaded region is what used to be Paulette. It could redevelop. If it does, it will still be Paulette, since it has never fully lost its surface circulation. Another tropical disturbance coming off the African coast will need to be monitored in the coming days/week but should swing out to sea.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Beta steals the show with this outlook. All eyes will be on what that storm does. Some unsettled weather continues in the Northwest, where they could use the rain for the wildfires.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Again, all eyes will be on Beta. That’s the most interesting weather on Sunday’s map!

 On This Day

On this day in 1947, the eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans. The barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. Two days earlier, the hurricane had produced wind gusts to 155 mph, while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Long Range Outlook 

The extended outlooks are trending warmer for the country. This particular outlook is for the end of next week and the weekend. Notice it keeps the moisture from Tropical Storm/Hurricane Beta along the Gulf Coast at this point. Other models show that moisture streaming more northward by next weekend. I’ll keep an eye on that. Overall, much of the country will stay warm and dry for the next week to ten days.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

I took this screen shot of a very powerful Hurricane Teddy just as darkness was about to catch him yesterday evening. A cool shot, if I do say so myself (ha).

NASA Nerdology

Yesterday was the 43rd anniversary of the first photo capturing the Earth and the Moon in a single frame. The photo was taken by Voyager I, which relayed the image back to Earth from 7.25 million miles away. When I first saw NASA share this on social media I caught myself smiling without even thinking. What an incredible picture this is!

You all have a great day!

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4:15 Friday: Tropical Storm Beta forms in the Gulf

You may be wondering what happened with Alpha? That name went to a storm making landfall in Portugal this afternoon. A bit of an odd twist to an odd season, I suppose.

Tropical Storm Beta is a quirky one. We’re just not exactly sure where that storm will go. Stay tuned.

I just realized that the Greek alphabet letters are not male or female (ha). It’s also interesting to note that a Greek lettered storm can’t be retired, should that be an issue. An interesting season is posing some interesting problems. A storm’s name is retired if it causes incredible destruction.

The good news is that Beta is just slowly meandering around, so we have time to monitor the storm. The National Hurricane Center advises coastal residents of Texas and Louisiana to closely monitor this storm over the coming days.

Pictured below is the 3-day track forecast for Beta. A swing to the north is possible after that last point. Beta is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night. I’ll keep an eye on it! It’s far too early to know if this system will impact our area. If it does, that wouldn’t happen until next weekend or so.

Pictured below is powerful Hurricane Teddy out in the Pacific. I caught this imagery a few moments ago. Notice darkness quickly approaching Teddy. I hope he’s not afraid of the dark! (ha) Seriously, he’s been very impressive on satellite all day.

Tropical Storm Wilfred Forms in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center has determined that the depression in the eastern Atlantic has organized into a Tropical Storm. Many of us thought the depression in the Gulf would be named first, but Ma Nature had other plans (ha).

This means that when the depression in the Gulf gets named, which could be at any moment, it will be named Alpha, the first letter of the Greek alphabet.

We have only used all the names for a season in one other season. That other season was 2005.

Wilfred will stay in the open waters of the Atlantic for quite some time and may even weaken back into a depression by Sunday.

Interestingly, there is no plan in place for an occasion in which we would need to retire a Greek alphabet storm. I’m not saying there will be a need for that, but it is interesting. If, for instance, we retire Alpha how would we name another storm after the first letter of the Greek alphabet? Keep in mind a storm’s name is only retired if they become very damaging storms.

I’ll keep you all posted on the depression in the southwestern Gulf. It looks impressive on satellite at this hour. Incidentally, there are all kinds of issues with the satellite this morning. Those issues started yesterday. This is no time for satellite data to be getting quirky! ha I should remind you that this depression is moving very, very slowly and we have many days to monitor it.

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