Overnight Storm Potential (Mon Night)

WHAT: A strong/severe storm or two, with gusty winds being the main threat. A damaging wind gust is possible with any storm.

WHEN: Midnight to 4:00 am timeframe (a few storms could develop well ahead of these)

I just wanted to give everyone a heads up on some storms headed our way for the overnight hours. This is not a widespread severe weather event, but one or two storms could certainly be on the stronger side. The NWS Nashville just sent out a special briefing on this situation, and I agree with their assessment that storms should be much worse in an around Nashville from this, since they did not experience the storms and rain that we did today. Their atmosphere is, therefore, much more unstable.

A severe t-storm watch may be issued in the coming hour for parts of Middle TN. I’m not sure that will include the plateau. I’ll keep you posted.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of Middle TN to the slight risk for severe weather. Here on the plateau, we remain in the marginal risk. A description of what that means is provided below. Storms are expected to weaken as they encounter our more rain-cooled, stable airmass form storms earlier today.

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All day, many of us have tracked a complex of very severe storms across the Midwest. These complexes are called derechos, which is a Spanish word for “straight ahead”. That comes from the fact that much of the wind with these complexes produce is straight-line winds. These complexes can go for hundreds of miles, just as today’s did.

We’re not going to be directly impacted by today’s derecho, but the atmosphere behaves like a fluid and all those storms with this massive complex have sent “ripples” through the atmosphere. Those ripples can travel far and wide, like the ripples on a pond after a stone is tossed into the water. Whenever we’re as warm and humid as we are tonight, it doesn’t take much to trip off a storm.

The radar imagery below shows what’s left of the southern flank of the derecho now. It’s losing steam, for sure, but I circled examples of the “ripples” I’m talking about. Those are outflow boundaries and new storms fire on these “baby cold” fronts that shoot ahead of the line with rain-cooled air behind them. I have little doubt that process will continue generating storms right onto the plateau later tonight. A few of those storms could be strong, with gusty winds and frequent lightning.

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I’ll keep an eye on things. Again, this is not a widespread severe weather event and it is encouraging that storms have, overall, showed a gradual weakening trend over the past hour or so.

My severe weather concern is on the medium side of things, mainly owing to this being such a late night event. The main threat is a damaging wind gust.

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Baldwin’s Monday Wx Blog for August 10

A head full of fears has no space for dreams

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

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Threats

Storms this week will be capable of producing gusty winds (perhaps a damaging gust), deadly cloud-to-ground lightning, and torrential rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but individual storms could become locally severe.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today – Saturday: Scattered showers and storms. Some storms could become locally severe. Heavy rainfall is also possible. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy, hot and humid.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a chance for some afternoon/evening showers or storms.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

This is not the week, folks. Another wet pattern has evolved and it’s here to stay for several days. Hopefully, Sunday will begin a drier time. I’ll keep an eye on all of this and let you know as soon as anything changes!

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Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 117 at Death Valley, California

Low: 26 at both Peter Sinks, Utah and Grand Lake, Colorado

Tropics

The disturbance in the southern Atlantic now has a 60% chance of becoming our next named storm. That storm would be Josephine. I’ll be tracking this system in the coming days, as it makes it’s way across the Atlantic. Hopefully, it will curve out to sea.

MondayTropics

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy rainfall and severe storms threaten folks from Kansas to Kentucky. Some of that heavy rainfall may clip down into our neck of the woods this evening/tonight.

MondayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

You’ll notice a hurricane in the Pacific. That storm will track away from the US. Otherwise, unsettled in the eastern US.

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Wednesday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

More unsettled weather in the eastern US, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.

MondayThreat3

Records

On this day in 1980 Crossville had its fifth consecutive day with record highs. The high this day was 95 degrees.

Long Range Outlook 

Above normal rainfall will keep temperatures in check, especially for what they could be this time of year! This is for the weekend and into early next week (15th – 19th).

Temperature

MondayTemp

Precipitation 

MondayRain

Weather Shot

This is satellite video of Pyrocumulonimbus clouds on the Florida Panhandle from last week. These are clouds that result from heat rising up from the earth’s surface, often from fires. In this case, they are from a prescribed burn. Warm air rises to create clouds in our colder atmosphere. In the case of fires, a LOT of hot air rises and, under the right conditions, can create clouds and even precipitation. In this case, the clouds even produced a lightning strike! If you look closely there was one lone strike near this plume, picked up by satellite. Look just to the right of the orange glow of fire in the satellite imagery. (Imagery from Colorado State University (@CIRA_CSU)).

NASA Nerdology

“The barred spiral galaxy known as NGC 4907 shows its starry face from 270 million light-years away to anyone who can see it from the Northern Hemisphere. This is a new image from the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope of the face-on galaxy, displaying its beautiful spiral arms, wound loosely around its central bright bar of stars.

Shining brightly below the galaxy is a star that is actually within our own Milky Way galaxy. This star appears much brighter than the billions of stars in NGC 4907 as it is 100,000 times closer, residing only 2,500 light-years away.

NGC 4907 is also part of the Coma Cluster, a group of over 1,000 galaxies, some of which can be seen around NGC 4907 in this image. This massive cluster of galaxies lies within the constellation of Coma Berenices, which is named for the locks of Queen Berenice II of Egypt: the only constellation named after a historical person” NASA.

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You all have a great day!

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Baldwin’s Sunday Story Wx Blog for August 9

Your talent is God’s gift to you. What you do with it is your gift back to God.

Abbreviated Weekend Edition

48-Hour Weather

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Threats

A few storms in the coming week could become strong, with cloud-to-ground lighting, heavy downpours, and a damaging winds gust possible.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

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An increase in storms this week leads to a higher chance for a few of them being strong to severe, with a damaging wind gust being the main threat. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today: Partly Cloudy, hot and humid. Some showers/storms possible overnight.

Monday – Saturday: Hot and humid, with scattered showers and storms. A few storms could be strong.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Our forecast continues to trend wetter. After today, a good hay weather day is hard to find. Each day this week will feature showers and storms, most likely in the afternoons and evenings, but possible to some degree throughout the day.

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Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 114 at Death Valley, California

Low: 26 at Copper Basin, Idaho

Tropics

We have an area to monitor now that bears watching. I’ll be tracking this one across the Atlantic this week!

SundayTropics

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Widespread severe weather is likely today across much of the Upper Midwest. All modes of severe weather are possible. Flooring rainfall is also likely. It’s going to be a rough Sunday for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin (and bordering areas). Another area of heavy rainfall is possible across southern Illinois.

SundayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

More heavy rainfall is likely for eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

SundayThreat2

Tuesday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

A quiet day, perhaps.

SundayThreat3

Sunday Story

(The Sunday Story is a reprint of the weekly weather articles I write for the Fentress Courier and Livingston Enterprise)

A historic rocket launch occurred on July 30 at Cape Canaveral, Florida, when the newest Mars rover, Perseverance, was launched. It is scheduled to arrive on the Red Planet in February.

Of the four rovers that are already on Mars, this one is the most unique. One of the objectives is to answer questions about life on Mars. We know water once flowed on the Martian surface but we don’t know where it went. We know the building blocks of life are there, but we don’t know if they ever built life. Perseverance will work like no other rover to answer these questions.

Perseverance will provide a “Wright Brothers” moment when it releases its helicopter. This will lead to the first powered flight of a manned vehicle on any planetary body besides Earth. The atmosphere is so different on Mars that it took some unique engineering to develop a helicopter that can fly there.

A weather station on board the rover will collect better weather data than any of the previous rovers. It will behave similarly to a weather station on earth, but the data collected will be quite different.

One of the weather measurements that will be most different is carbon dioxide (CO2). That gas is abundant on Mars and is one of the factors that has led to a very warm and desolate planet. We worry about CO2 levels here on earth because we fear the same could happen to us if CO2 levels get too high.

Exploration has always been in our human DNA. That exploration may lead to finding things on other worlds that help us here on earth. Our place is unique in the universe and we should aim to do our best to keep it as beautiful and flourishing as we possibly can.

1_perseveracne

You all have a great day!

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Baldwin’s Sunny Saturday Wx Blog for August 8th

If it’s a good idea, go ahead and do it. It’s much easier to apologize than it is to get permission. 

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

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Threats

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected.  Just be safe in the heat and humidity of the coming days.

As storm chances increase next week, the risk for a strong/severe storm or two will also increase. Still, widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

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The concern increases a bit, owing to the increase in storm coverage.

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Weekend: Partly cloudy and hot.

Monday: Hot and humid, with a chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms.

Tuesday – Friday: Showers and storms likely, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Data is trending wetter and wetter for next week. For that reason, I have gone ahead and X’ed out Tuesday through Friday, owing to the increased risk for widespread shower and storm activity. That wet pattern looks to hold beyond this 7-day outlook. I’ll keep you posted.

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Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 110 at both Winterhaven (ironic, right?) and Death Valley, California

Low: 25 at Grand Lake, Colorado

Tropics

We just have one area to watch at this time, and it is not expected to develop into much of anything. I’ll keep you posted.

SatrudayTropics

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Severe storms threaten an area stretching across Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. All modes of severe are possible, including isolated tornadoes.

SaturdayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

More severe weather threatens an area from Minnesota to Wisconsin. Once again, all modes of severe weather are possible.

SaturdayThreat2

Monday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The only threat thus far for Monday is an area of heavy rainfall that is possible across northern Missouri.

SaturdayThreat3

Records

On this day in 1882 an August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks, covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day.

Long Range Outlook 

The main headline for the period of August 13 – 17 is the above average rainfall expected for our area. Long-range outlooks have pointed to this for some time now.

Temperature

SaurdayTemp

Precipitation 

SaurdayRain

Weather Shot

This gorgeous photo of a waterspout was taken Wednesday morning over Lake Erie. The sunrise definitely gave this one an eerie glow on Lake Erie! (ha) (Photo by Jeff Paul)

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NASA Nerdology

NASA’s Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team, in collaboration with the Earth Observatory of Singapore, used satellite-derived synthetic aperture radar data to map the likely extent of damage from a massive Aug. 4 explosion in Beirut. Synthetic aperture radar data from space shows ground surface changes from before and after a major event like an earthquake. In this case, it is being used to show the devastating result of an explosion.

On the map, dark red pixels – like those present at and around the Port of Beirut – represent the most severe damage. Areas in orange are moderately damaged and areas in yellow are likely to have sustained somewhat less damage. Each colored pixel represents an area of 30 meters (33 yards).

Maps like this one can help identify badly damaged areas where people may need assistance. The explosion occurred near the city’s port. It claimed more than 150 lives and is estimated to have caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage.

pia23692-1041

You all have a great day!

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Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!