As always, I’ll have a fresh update in the morning. I’ll also issue special updates, as needed, from now until all threats have passed. To more easily keep up with it all, follow this site and/or download the free Meteorologist Mark app from your app store. Thank you!
MM’s Forecast Summary
I was hoping today’s data would look better for us for Sunday night but that’s just not the case. In fact, I think it’s safe to say all of us in the meteorology field have only become more concerned. Warm, humid air will rush north from the Gulf and collide with a potent cold front moving in from the west Sunday night. Incredibly strong winds aloft will threaten us with damaging wind gusts as a squall line along that cold front pushes through. Heavier showers and storms will be capable of pushing those winds down to the surface, which could reach maximum speeds of 75 mph. In addition, wind fields will support spin-up tornadoes along the line of storms that would further enhance wind damage.
So, what could help us out? Well, a couple of things. First, thank goodness the storms aren’t coming in the heat of the day. That could certainly have made things worse for us. Still, we’re no stranger to bad storms at night, so be prepared, just in case. Second, there continues to be a “cap” showing up in the data at about 5,000 feet above us (a warm, stable layer of air common with severe weather set-ups). IF that cap holds strong, it could prevent heavier downpours, which would prevent stronger wind gusts from being pushed down.
As always, we hope for the best. We’ve gotten very lucky the past two threats and we’ll hope and pray we get lucky with this one, too.
As with any high wind event, make sure you secure loose objects you may have outside and prepare for power outages. Even if we don’t get bad storms, those gusty Sunday winds will wreck havoc with anything that can be blown around (don’t forget those trampolines and outdoor trash cans!).
Sunday’s level of concern is all about those gusty southerly winds. Make sure you have battery backups working to get your severe weather alerts, just in case the power goes off at your house before the storms arrive. There is a decent risk of sporadic power outages just from the gusty southerly winds ahead of this system.
Sunday night our attention will turn to a potent squall line racing across the state. This line carries all the threats with it, including tornadoes. On a positive note, the large hail and flooding risk are super low.
I’ll keep this updated as we get closer to Sunday night. Right now, confidence is high in this hourly forecast.
I have increased the tornado threat and I have increased the straight-line wind threat. Hopefully, overnight data and data during the day Sunday will allow me to lower these threats again. Keep in mind that there is a risk for widespread damaging winds across the plateau as this front blows through. With a worst case scenario (widespread winds over 70 mph) we could be looking at long duration power outages.
The latest short term radar model shows the line right upon us at midnight. In each model run, the line gets a little bit faster. Hopefully, we get this out of here by midnight so our sleep isn’t too terribly disrupted.
The winds tomorrow night will get much stronger just up off the surface, as seen below. Heavier rain and storms can push those stronger winds down to the surface. This is the downdraft part of the storm. Heavier precip means more of those winds can be pushed down. Lighter precip isn’t able to push those stronger winds down. We’ll hope for lighter precip!
Snow will be mainly confined to grass and elevated surfaces.
For those who doubt we can get snow after being so warm, I assure you that we can. In fact, I can’t recall a winter when folks didn’t say the ground was too warm, only to be proven wrong. It’s a story as old as time. lol One dramatic example is from my friend Chris in Salisbury, Maryland. He and I went to grad school together at MSU for meteorology. He’s a meteorologist in Salisbury and had a record-breaking high of 85° on Wednesday. Then, he had this snow on Thursday. Arctic air doesn’t care.
Never fear! Warmer air will here again before you know it! In fact…that will happen by Wednesday!
And be ready for the aches and pains for those of you sensitive to weather changes. I’ll keep this updated, as well.
As always, I’ll continue to keep a very close eye on things. I’ll have a fresh update to ALL of this in the morning. I’ll also issue special updates, as needed, until all threats have passed. Thank you for trusting me with your weather and I hope you all have a wonderful evening. I’ll be watching Twister ….just to get into the spirit of the season, right? ha
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