Earlier today, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded parts of West Tn to the marginal risk for severe storms. The marginal threat is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories. This evening, the SPC issued what’s called a mesoscale discussion (small-scale discussion) for an area larger than the marginal risk area and coming within 50 miles of parts of the plateau. They state that a “watch” isn’t necessary but that an isolated severe storm couldn’t be ruled out. While this area is still to our west, it is closer than it was earlier.
Any storm we get late tonight or early in the morning could produce gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rainfall. The airmass tonight is very warm and humid. In fact, our overnight low is going to be nearly 30 degrees above normal!
Just keep in mind that we could have thunderstorms late tonight and one or two of them could be strong. Severe weather is still not expected in our area. If you see any severe storm warnings issued west of Nashville tonight just know that activity is expected to stay out in that part of the state.
The red-circled area on the radar below is the area the SPC is monitoring. That threat is greatest from 8:00-10:00 tonight. After that, the atmosphere across the western end of the state is expected to stabilize enought to keep storms from being severe. The same is true for our area.
Friday: Rain likely in the morning, tapering off by afternoon.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a slight chance for showers.
Forecast Discussion & Concerns
Elevated rain chances continue but widespread flooding issues are not expected this week. Neither severe nor wintry weather issues are expected at this time.
A decent 2-3 inches of rain is expected areawide by the end of the week. Some locations may receive locally higher amounts that are closer to 4 inches.
By next week, a strong cold front will blow through Tuesday-Wednesday. That will usher in colder and drier air, as it looks right now. There does appear to be at least a low risk of severe storms with that frontal passage. I’ll monitor that closely in the coming days.
The Storm Prediction Center outlook for severe weather shows severe storms possible on Monday (Day 7) across Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. I’ll be tracking that threat eastward.
HRRR Radar Model
This model begins at 9:00 a.m. and ends at midnight, in one-hour increments. Scattered activity is expected throughout the day, with much of the heavier downpours falling north of Interstate 40.
1937- A chilly day brings record cold to the mid state. Nashville’s low temperature is 11, with the high reaching just 17 degrees.
1886 – A great snowstorm hit the southern Appalachain Mountains. The three day storm produced 25 inches at Rome Georgia, 33 inches at Asheville, North Carolina, and 42 inches in the mountains. Montgomery, Alabama received a record eleven inches of snow. Columbia, South Carolina received one to two inches of sleet.
1970 – A windstorm toppled the National Christmas Tree at the White House.
Last week, I met with City Fire and the County EMA. They had expressed interest in working with me for weather data during times of inclement weather or if an emergency response required weather data. I am very excited to announce that I agreed to be contracted with them and we are working on phasing me into that new role. I am also thankful for my job at Creative Compassion, that allows me the flexibility to take on such projects. My call sign for those listening on emergency radios will be Weather1.
In addition. due to the outpouring of requests (thank you!), along with this new role of mine, the blog will go back to being updated daily and as needed.
REGIONALLY
Past 24-Hour Precip Totals
Drought Outlook
The drought map updates each Thursday, so this is the latest map! This map was based on data that precedes the latest rainfall. Next week’s update will take that rainfall into consideration and that will make a big difference in these maps. For more drought info, please visit https://meteorologistmark.com/drought-info/
Estimated population in drought Areas in TN last week = 4,857,327
Estimated population in drought Areas in TN this week = 5,362,178
NATIONALLY
National Weather Map for Today
Past 24-Hour Temperature Changes
Bluer colors represent colder temps from 24 hours ago this morning, while redder colors indicate warmer temps from 24 hours ago.
Today’s High Temps & Departure from Average
Today’s high temps are shown below. The coloration indicates departure from average, with redder colors indicating above-average high temps and bluer colors indicating below-average high temps. White coloration indicates average temps.
Coolest high temp expected today: -1 degrees (blue star)
Tomorrow Morning’s Low Temps & Departure from Average
Tomorrow morning’s low temps are shown below. The coloration indicates departure from average, with redder colors indicating above-average low temps and bluer colors indicating below-average temps. White coloration indicates average temps expected.
A very mild night is in store for our region tonight!
MM NEWS
MM Classes for Kids
The next MM kid’s classes will take place in January and February of 2023. The next Crossville class will take place on Wednesday, January 18 at 4:30 pm. The Clarkrange class will take place Thursday, February 2 at 5:00 pm. Registration is required. The class topic will be hail! Registration can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/mm-kids/
MeteorologistMarkPro
December’s newsletter is out! Learn all about what we discussed in the kids class in November, the weather of Novembers in the past on the plateau, and how lake-effect snow occurs! These topics and more are in this month’s letter! Subscriptions for the newsletter pay for materials used in the MM kids classes each month. To subscribe or try a free sample, go to https://meteorologistmarkpro.com/
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, forecast discussion, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!
Make sure you “Follow” this blog to get updates in your email inbox
Last week, I met with City Fire and the County EMA. They had expressed interest in working with me for weather data during times of inclement weather or if an emergency response required weather data. I am very excited to announce that I agreed to be contracted with them and we are working on phasing me into that new role. I am also thankful for my job at Creative Compassion, that allows me the flexibility to take on such projects. My call sign for those listening on emergency radios will be Weather1.
In addition. due to the outpouring of requests (thank you!), along with this new role of mine, the blog will go back to being updated daily and as needed.
Monday: Rain developing areawide by afternoon. Increasing in coverage and intensity overnight.
Tuesday: Rain likely. Thunder possible.
Wednesday: Rain likely. Thunder possible.
Thursday: Rain and thunderstorms likely.
Friday: Rain likely in the morning, tapering off by afternoon.
Forecast Discussion & Concerns
Rainfall could be heavy at times this week, which could lead to some localized flooding, especially in poorly-drained and/or low-lying areas. Widespread flooding issues are not expected. Neither severe nor wintry weather issues are expected at this time.
A decent 2-3 inches of rain is expected areawide by the end of the week. Some locations may receive locally higher amounts that are closer to 4 inches.
HRRR Radar Model
This model begins at 9:00 a.m. and ends at 11:00 pm tonight, in one-hour increments. Nothing heavy is expected today but rainfall could be heavier overnight.
1977- Baseball-size hail is reported in Putnam County.
1886 – A big snowstorm in the southeastern U.S. produced 11 inches at Montgomery Alabama, 18.5 inches at Rome, Georgia, and 22.5 inches at Knoxville, Tennessee.
The drought map updates each Thursday, so this is the latest map! This map was based on data that precedes the latest rainfall. Next week’s update will take that rainfall into consideration and that will make a big difference in these maps. For more drought info, please visit https://meteorologistmark.com/drought-info/
Estimated population in drought Areas in TN last week = 4,857,327
Estimated population in drought Areas in TN this week = 5,362,178
NATIONALLY
National Weather Map for Today
Past 24-Hour Temperature Changes
Bluer colors represent colder temps from 24 hours ago this morning, while redder colors indicate warmer temps from 24 hours ago.
Today’s High Temps & Departure from Average
Today’s high temps are shown below. The coloration indicates departure from average, with redder colors indicating above-average high temps and bluer colors indicating below-average high temps. White coloration indicates average temps.
Coolest high temp expected today: 5 degrees (blue star)
Tomorrow Morning’s Low Temps & Departure from Average
Tomorrow morning’s low temps are shown below. The coloration indicates departure from average, with redder colors indicating above-average low temps and bluer colors indicating below-average temps. White coloration indicates average temps expected.
The next MM kid’s classes will take place in January and February of 2023. The next Crossville class will take place on Wednesday, January 18 at 4:30 pm. The Clarkrange class will take place Thursday, February 2 at 5:00 pm. Registration is required. The class topic will be hail! Registration can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/mm-kids/
MeteorologistMarkPro
December’s newsletter is out! Learn all about what we discussed in the kids class in November, the weather of Novembers in the past on the plateau, and how lake-effect snow occurs! These topics and more are in this month’s letter! Subscriptions for the newsletter pay for materials used in the MM kids classes each month. To subscribe or try a free sample, go to https://meteorologistmarkpro.com/
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, forecast discussion, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!
Make sure you “Follow” this blog to get updates in your email inbox
Thank you to Crystal Smith for sending this to me! Many of you may know Crystal’s dad, Sam Raper, from your days at CCHS. Sam was responsible for contacting WATE Channel 6 in Knoxville when I was in high school. He let them know how interested I was in weather and Matt Hinkin called me! Matt made me a Channel 6 weather watcher and it was one of the greatest days of my life! For years, I would call and give my weather reports straight to either Matt Hinkin or Ken Weathers. I still stay in touch with them all these years later.
Friday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Windy. Slight chance for a shower by afternoon and evening. Rain becomes likely overnight.
Saturday: Rain, especially the first half of the day. Turning colder.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy.
Monday: Showers developing by afternoon. Rain becomes heavier and more widespread overnight.
Tuesday: Rain, possibly heavy at times.
Forecast Discussion & Concerns
We’re entering into yet another very wet period. This rainfall will end the drought for this year. Tonight and Saturday’s rainfall will amount to about a quarter of an inch. The more substantial rainfall arrives early next week, when several inches of rain may fall across the plateau. I’ll keep an eye on any flooding issues that may arise. At this time, neither severe storms nor wintry weather issues are expected.
HRRR Radar Model
This short-term model run begins at noon today and ends at midnight tonight. Notice the isolated nature of showers expected. Rain coverage will likely increase after midnight.
1991- Nashville measures 3.07″ of rainfall, for a 3-day total of 5.96″. Crossville receives 3.57″ for a remarkable 3-day total of 8.16″.
1970 – A tornado, 400 yards in width, touched down about one mile below the summit of Timpanogos Divide. Trees up to 18 inches in diameter were snapped, and some of the 38-inch snow cover was carried 1000 feet above the ground as the tornado traveled one mile.
1982 – A tornado destroyed a home four miles south of Eastwood, Missouri. The owners were not injured in that tornado, but ironically one was killed Christmas Eve when another tornado hit the replacement mobile home on the same site.
The drought map updates each Thursday, so this is the latest map! This map was based on data that precedes the latest rainfall. Next week’s update will take that rainfall into consideration and that will make a big difference in these maps. For more drought info, please visit https://meteorologistmark.com/drought-info/
Estimated population in drought Areas in TN last week = 4,857,327
Estimated population in drought Areas in TN this week = 5,362,178
NATIONALLY
Five-Day Rainfall Forecast
Current Snow Cover Map
Extended Temperature Outlook (Dec 7-11)
Extended Precipitation Outlook (Dec 7-11)
MM NEWS
MM Classes for Kids
The next MM kid’s classes will take place in January and February of 2023. The next Crossville class will take place on Wednesday, January 18 at 4:30 pm. The Clarkrange class will take place Thursday, February 2 at 5:00 pm. Registration is required. The class topic will be hail! Registration can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/mm-kids/
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, forecast discussion, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!
Make sure you “Follow” this blog to get updates in your email inbox
