Thursday Night Special Update Issued December 7, 2023

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Thursday Night Special Vlog

My YouTube channel can be found at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog You can subscribe to that channel for free. Additional posts will be made during times of active weather.

Multiple Hazards to be Aware of

Strong Winds Friday Night Through Sunday

Strong Storms and Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday Night (Main threat 9:00 pm – 3:00 a.m.)

Light Accumulation of Snowfall Possible Sunday (timing uncertain)

MM’s 5-Day Forecast

A Very Active Weekend of Weather Ahead

Friday continues to look like the calm before the storm. Saturday looks like a windy day with scattered showers, with heavier rain, stronger winds, and thunderstorms moving in during the night. As the colder air rushes in around midday Sunday, the rain could change to some light snow. The new work week looks to start out sunny.

Weekend Jetstream Forecast

Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels (~30,000 feet) of the atmosphere. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Brighter reds/purples/whites indicate faster winds. The map begins this morning at 6:00 and moves in six-hour increments.

A very active jet stream is forecast for the weekend, which will lead a lot of active weather across the U.S.

Drought & Rainfall

Interestingly, some of the heaviest rainfall over the next week will fall on areas where the drought is the harshest.

Forecast rainfall over the next seven days is seen below.

This week’s latest drought update is seen below.

Have a great night and keep lookin’ up!

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android or Apple app!

Proud to be contracted with Crossville City Fire to provide critical weather support for emergency services!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Thursday, December 7, 2023

Radar brought to you by Creative Compassion. Serving low to moderate income households with various housing needs. See https://ccihomes.org/ to learn how we can help and to learn how you can give!

Multiple Hazards to be Aware of

Elevated Fire Danger This Afternoon

Strong Winds Friday Night Through Sunday

Strong Storms and Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday Night (Main threat 9:00 pm – 3:00 a.m.)

Light Accumulation of Snowfall Possible Sunday (timing uncertain)

MM’s 5-Day Forecast

A Very Active Weekend of Weather Ahead

The weather pattern changes quickly today, with southerly breezes ushering in a sunnier and warmer day. That breeze, along with low humidity and drought conditions, will lead to an increased risk for wildfires by this afternoon. Still, this is the calm before the BIG storm system.

Clouds and winds increase on Friday, as our next big storm system cranks up to our west. Rain showers develop as early as Friday night and Saturday, but the bulk of the rain arrives after dark Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and some of those may be strong, with a damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall being the main threats. Southerly winds could gust over 35 mph over the weekend and could lead to sporadic power outages. By Sunday, temps drop and rain changes to snow before moving out. Light accumulation is possible but should stay under one half inch. Total rainfall over the weekend should range from 2-3 inches across the area, with isolated higher amounts. This kind of rainfall could lead to some localized flooding, especially if it falls hard and fast with some of the storms.

Sunny skies return by Monday.

Yesterday’s Weather Statistics

On This Day

1989 – A storm moving out of the Central Rocky Mountain Region spread snow across Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and Tennessee. Snowfall totals ranged up to 7.5 inches at Winfield, Kansas. Freezing rain on trees and power lines cut off electricity to 24,000 homes in northeastern Arkansas, and 40,000 homes in the Nashville, Tennessee, area were without electricity for several hours. 

Current Snowfall Depth

If you look closely, you can see the snow in the Smokies from yesterday.

Five-Day Jetstream Forecast

Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels (~30,000 feet) of the atmosphere. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Brighter reds/purples/whites indicate faster winds. The map begins this morning at 6:00 and moves in six-hour increments.

Drought Monitor

The Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday. The map below was updated on Thursday, December 7. Recent precipitation has helped a bit, but severe to extreme drought continues to plageu much of the state.

YouTube

My YouTube channel can be found at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog You can subscribe to that channel for free. Additional posts will be made during times of active weather.

Have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android or Apple app!

Proud to be contracted with Crossville City Fire to provide critical weather support for emergency services!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Midweek update coming tonight! I’ll discuss the big upcoming weekend storm system.

Radar brought to you by Creative Compassion. Serving low to moderate income households with various housing needs. See https://ccihomes.org/ to learn how we can help and to learn how you can give!

Hazards

Elevated Fire Danger Thursday Afternoon

MM’s 5-Day Forecast

A Roller Coaster Forecast

A few morning flurries/sleet pellets will give way to mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions for our Wednesday. Those northerly breezes will make it feel much cooler. The pattern changes quickly by tomorrow, with sunnier, warmer, and calmer weather expected. A southerly breeze, low humidity and drought conditions will lead to an increased risk for wildfires by Thursday afternoon. Clouds increase on Friday as our next big storm system gets ready to move in over the weekend. Winds will begin picking up by evening. Rain showers develop as early as Friday night and Saturday, but the bulk of the rain arrives after dark Saturday. A few thunderstorms are even possible and there may even be a risk for strong storms (I’m keeping a close eye on that). Winds will pick up Friday night and be downright gusty by Saturday morning. Winds could gust over 35 mph over the weekend. A very windy weekend is in store for us! By Sunday afternoon, temps drop and rain tries to move out. Any leftover moisture will fall as snow flurries Sunday night (I’ll monitor that wintry precip closely). Total rainfall over the weekend should range from 1-2 inches across the area.

Yesterday’s Weather Statistics

On This Day

1937- A chilly day brings record cold to the mid state. Nashville’s low temperature is 11, with the high reaching just 17 degrees.

1886 – A great snowstorm hit the southern Appalachain Mountains. The three day storm produced 25 inches at Rome Georgia, 33 inches at Asheville, North Carolina, and 42 inches in the mountains. Montgomery, Alabama, received a record eleven inches of snow. Columbia, South Carolina, received one to two inches of sleet.

Drought Monitor

The Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday. The map below was updated on Thursday, November 30. This week’s rain helped, but we will likely remain in drought conditions for many weeks to come.

Current Snowfall Depth

Five-Day Jetstream Forecast

Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels (~30,000 feet) of the atmosphere. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Brighter reds/purples/whites indicate faster winds. The map begins this morning at 6:00 and moves in six-hour increments.

YouTube

My YouTube channel can be found at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog You can subscribe to that channel for free. Additional posts will be made during times of active weather.

Midweek update coming tonight!

Have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android or Apple app!

Proud to be contracted with Crossville City Fire to provide critical weather support for emergency services!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Some of you have sent me some very ominous cloud pictures from this evening, and others have sent me pictures of “snow balls.” You all asked for explanation and here it goes! ha

The imagery below is called a vorticity map. It’s the amount of “spin” in the air. Having rising air is how we get clouds but if that air can spin efficiently as it rises, we can get VERY tall clouds. On the map below, the air rises with a lot of spin where you see the darker colors. Notice the front that came through this evening showing up VERY nicely on the vorticity map. That’s one of the best examples of a front coming through that I have ever seen on this map.

So, we had a lot of rising air along that boundary and that lead to some tall, dark clouds. The bitter cold air up high also made the neighboring blue sky look very dark blue. It was a cool contrast! Some of those black clouds dropped graupel, which kinda looks like little snow balls. Graupel is kinda like sleet and hail’s little cousin. Graupel is bigger than sleet and smaller and softer than most hail. It tends to occur when temps are cooler, like this evening, and is usually not associated with severe weather like hail is. I did, however, notice a couple of lightning strikes between Jamestown and Livingston on the radar this evening, indicative of even taller clouds up that way. (Fyi, if we had been about 20 degrees warmer this evening we would have had a good chance for severe thunderstorms and maybe even tornadoes).

This front is from Canada and is carrying some VERY cold air up in the atmosphere with it. That’s the blue coloration you see on the map below. This map is at 18,000 feet above. Since it is so, so cold up high that means that temperatures decreased very rapidly with height this evening. So, while it was cool down here at the surface, it was so cold up high that it seemed warm down here….almost a thunderstorm day…even though we were chilly.

Notice the lines streaming straight from Canada on the map below. Cold air is moving in but it won’t last for long, as you can see warmer air building in from the west on the map below. That warm air will be here by Thursday.

This system coming through this evening is called an Alberta Clipper (it was born in the province of Alberta, Canada). The systems travel fast in the jet stream winds up high and can bring quick bursts of snow in the colder months. So, we weren’t warm enough for severe weather and we weren’t cold enough for snow…so we got an interesting mix of ominous clouds and graupel (which is sorta kinda hail/sleet).

We may still some flurries later tonight and in the early morning hours. Fingers crossed for us snow lovers! 🙂

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android or Apple app!

Proud to be contracted with Crossville City Fire to provide critical weather support for emergency services!