MM says….It’s a winter-like Friday the 13th on the plateau! Keep your eyes open for the season’s first flurries! Temps slowly warm back up starting Sunday.
Active weather can be found across the western U.S. and the eastern U.S. Very nice, albeit chilly, weather can be found across the central portions of the country. The storm system bringing us the colder air is spinning over the Northeast today, spinning around disturbances that will bring us some light precip chances today. Some of that precip will be wintry. Out west, another storm system gathers strength but it will track too far south to bring us any precip in the coming days.
The percentage of the land area of the contiguous U.S. covered in snow is at 3%. Yesterday it was 2%. Tomorrow’s map will likely show snow on the Smokies!
Why is the precip so afraid of the plateau these days? ha
Drought Conditions
This map updates each Thursday.
Drought improved across the state, but not by a lot. Last week, 98% of the state was in drought. This week that number has fallen to 91%. The best news is that “exceptional drought (D4)” almost went completely away. “Extreme drought (D3)” dropped from a coverage of 29% last week to a coverage of only 9% this week. The “Abnormally Dry” to “Severe Drought” categories barely changed from last week. Drought conditions are forecast to worsen over the next week.
Last week’s map can be seen below, for comparison.
This Week’s Night Sky
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Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
MM says….Much of this system’s rain shrs stayed north and south of the plateau, unfortunately. We could have used some rain, even though amounts always looked very light with this system (something would have been better than nothing). Now, we’re on the cold side of the cold front and different weak disturbances will offer some more light precip chances through Friday evening. With colder temps, some of that precip will be in the form of snow flakes.
A very winter-like storm system is impacting the eastern half of the U.S. with cold temps and even some wintry precip. Winter weather advisories are in effect for many of the higher peaks of the southern Appalachians, including the Smoky Mountains in Tennessee. This storm system isn’t expected to cause big impacts anywhere, but it is a good first taste of many more winter-like systems to come over the next several months.
The percentage of the land area of the contiguous U.S. covered in snow is at 2%. Yesterday it was also 2%. Tomorrow’s map may get to show some snow on top of the Smoky Mountains!
Plenty of showers to our north and plenty of showers to our south. We’re in the middle with just about nothing. Crazy weather. ha
Drought Conditions
This map updates each Thursday.
Drought improved across the state, but not by a lot. Last week, 98% of the state was in drought. This week that number has fallen to 91%. The best news is that “exceptional drought (D4)” almost went completely away. “Extreme drought (D3)” dropped from a coverage of 29% last week to a coverage of only 9% this week. The “Abnormally Dry” to “Severe Drought” categories barely changed from last week. Drought conditions are forecast to worsen over the next week.
Last week’s map can be seen below, for comparison.
This Week’s Night Sky
Thank You, Sponsors!
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
Today’s Did You Know is from Bayne-Jones’s November 11, 1918 letter describing the weather and the moment the fighting stopped. The letter can be found at the U.S. National Library of Medicine.
MM says….A strong cold and rain showers move in Wednesday night, followed by much colder air! Rain amounts look like with this system, with most of us not even seeing 1/4 of an inch. Snow flurries are possible by Thursday night and Friday, a hard freeze is certain. Northwest winds will make it feel even colder. Get ready to bundle up!
A storm system will bring rain showers to parts of the eastern U.S. today and tonight. Those showers you see across the plateau region should hold off until after dark. Snowflakes will be flying in the colder air up around the Great Lakes and New England. Meanwhile, the western half of the U.S. is very quiet.
The best chance for accumulating snow on Friday will be found in the highest elevations of West Virginia. Accumulating snow is also likely all along the spine of the southern Appalachians and on the northwest-facing slopes. It continues to look like 2-4″ snow amounts could be common above 3,000 feet in the mountains on the TN/NC border.
The NWS in Morristown put out this graphic, showing some snowfall impacts on the higher peaks of the mountains from Friday’s snow.
The percentage of the land area of the contiguous U.S. covered in snow is at 2%. Yesterday it was also 2%.
The Crossville Airport is the official reporting station for the plateau.
Email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com
Yesterday’s Storm Reports
There were no storm reports filed for Tuesday for anywhere in the nation.
Past 24-Hours of Radar-Estimated Precip
8:00 a.m. yesterday to 8:00 a.m. CST today.
Drought Conditions
This map updates each Thursday.
This Week’s Night Sky
Thank You, Sponsors!
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
On this date 24 years ago, one of the most devastating tornadoes in Cumberland County history struck the Crossville and Lake Tansi communities, forever changing the lives of many local families. A deadly tornado also struck Morgan County, claiming seven lives in the Mossy Grove community.
November 10, 2002, was an unusually warm day across Middle Tennessee. Crossville reached a record high of 75 degrees as warm, moist air surged northward ahead of an approaching cold front. The atmosphere became increasingly unstable, setting the stage for a major tornado outbreak. I remember visiting my grandparents the night of the 9th (I was home that weekend from college) and the southerly winds were so gusty outside! Those southerly winds helped push a tremendous amount of warm and moist air into our region.
The initial concern was for a squall line to come through late that Sunday evening. However, conditions became favorable for isolated supercells earlier in the evening, prompting tornado watches to be issued.
And indeed, that Sunday evening brought several powerful supercell thunderstorms to the region. At approximately 9:32 p.m. CST, a violent thunderstorm produced an F-3 tornado southwest of Crossville. Normally, our strongest tornadoes come from isolated supercells. This one, however, was within the squall line. FYI, recent research has brought many more such tornadoes into the spotlight…powerful tornadoes embedded in squall lines.
The tornado traveled northeastward for approximately 16 miles, reaching a maximum width of 1,000 yards — more than half a mile wide!
Some of the worst destruction occurred along Lantana Drive, Dunbar Road, Lone Wolf Circle, and Pigeon Ridge Road. The tornado devastated portions of the Lake Tansi and Lake Mohawk communities before continuing northeastward across Highway 127.
The destruction was tremendous. According to National Weather Service records, 33 homes and mobile homes were destroyed, while another 128 sustained damage. Large hardwood trees were snapped, and entire homes were swept from their foundations.
Tragically, four Cumberland County residents lost their lives and 29 others were injured.
Thankfully, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Cumberland County at 9:31 p.m., specifically indicating that the tornado-producing storm was expected near Crossville around 9:45 p.m. The four fatalities occurred around that time, approximately 14 minutes after the warning was issued.
What I think played a role in the strength of this tornado was the development of a secondary warm front that was draped across Cumberland County when this squall line arrived. This warm front was weak, especially compared to the primary and main warm front that had lifted north earlier in the day, but I think this warm front gave that storm an extra dose of spin that allowed it to become so strong. I’ll never forget watching that squall line bend into an ‘S’ shape around Tansi and thinking, “Oh no. This isn’t good at all.”
The November 10 outbreak was not limited to Cumberland County. Numerous tornadoes swept across Tennessee and surrounding states that day, making it one of the most significant November severe weather events in the region’s history.
In a historical reassessment published in 2024, the National Weather Service determined that the Crossville tornado’s damage path was longer and wider than originally documented. The revised assessment identifies it as the worst tornado in Cumberland County’s recorded history.
In Morgan County, seven lives were lost to storms. The hardest hit area was Mossy Grove. That community had always felt protected by the mountains to their west. This event showed that protection to be a myth. The storm report reads, “A strong F3 tornado (with wind speeds estimated around 175 mph) touched down 4.4 miles south of Wartburg in the Mossy Grove community killing 5 people and injuring 28. This tornado then struck Joyner at 8:40 P.M. killing two more people for a total of 7 dead. The tornado damaged 63 homes while destroying 24 others. In addition, 18 mobile homes were damaged and 12 others were destroyed.”
Twenty-four years later, November 10, 2002, remains a solemn reminder that tornadoes are not just a springtime threat in Tennessee. Our secondary severe weather season can be just as dangerous, especially when powerful storms develop after dark.
Today, we remember the lives lost and the many families whose lives were forever changed on that November night.
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Other tornados struck the area but were much weaker. An F-1 tornado hit the Grimsley area of Fentress County and was on the ground for 4.3 miles. The storm report reads, “Radar data and high resolution satellite imagery clearly indicate this was a supercell tornado in the Grimsley area of Fentress County. The tornado began west of Highway 127 and Thacker Road, then moved east damaging the businesses near the Thacker Road/Highway 127 intersection mentioned in Storm Data. Continuing eastward, the tornado blew down dozens of trees in forests and caused minor damage to homes and outbuildings along Burks Loop, Goney Road, the North Prong Clear Fork Creek, Wayman Beaty Road, Banner Roslin Road, Banner Springs Road, and Joe Rogers Road before lifting near Terry Lane. Total path length was around 4.3 miles with a path width of 200 yards. Newspaper reports mentioned some people were injured by the tornado, but Storm Data does not mention injuries and the exact number, if any, is unknown.”
Two F-0s struck Cumberland County earlier in the evening (before the F-3 hit). One storm reports states, “It’s unclear if this damage was from straight line winds or a tornado, as no NWS storm survey was conducted and 5 different supercells moved across this area during the evening of November 10, 2002. For now, with no other known damage, the path length and width were adjusted to be a brief touchdown, and the rating was lowered to F0. The time and location were also corrected to be near mile marker 325 on I-40 as indicated in NWS Nashville local storm reports. This supercell continued into Morgan County and produced the devastating F3 tornado in the Petros area.”
The other storm report says, “It’s unclear if a tornado actually occurred in this area of southern Cumberland County due to the lack of damage, but a strongly rotating supercell did move through this area at the reported time.”
As for the Cumberland County F-3, there is a storm report and an edited report. Many storm reports have been edited over the years to add additional data. Sam Shamburger at the NWS Nashville was a stickler for detail and he made sure storm reports stayed as updated and accurate as possible. Here are those reports.
“STORM DATA: An F3 tornado struck the Lake Tansi area and the southern sections of Crossville Sunday night, killing 4 people and injuring 18. Thirty-three homes and mobile were destroyed and 128 homes and mobile homes were damaged. There was damage to one public building. The heaviest damage was along Lantana Drive, Dunbar Road, and Pigeon Ridge Road. 5 homes were damaged on U.S. Highway 127 and just south of Three Creek Road. One well built home lost an entire roof and several walls. The couple, their 3 children, and a guest, huddled under a mattress in the hallway. 50 acres of hardwoods were twisted and tangled. 100-year-old oak trees were snapped like wheat straws. Mobile homes on the Ballyhoo Campground and modular homes in Lake Tansi were destroyed. The four fatalities occurred in mobile homes. A couple was killed at 298 Lantana Drive when their mobile home was lifted off its foundation and placed on another trailer. Edward, 80 and Mary Laffer 75 were killed. Another couple died at 4040 Lone Wolf Circle. Robert, 55 and Sandy Scarbrough, 52, were killed and their bodies were found across Lake Mohawk.
(Edited) SHAMBURGER (2024) – This historic, massive tornado, which is the worst in Cumberland County history, was spawned by one of at least 5 different supercells that moved across the county on this evening. Radar data and high resolution satellite imagery indicate the tornado began west of Stave Mill Road about 10.6 miles southwest of Crossville, then moved northeast across Flynns Cove Road, Lantana Road, Vandever Road, then across Lantana Drive where 2 people were killed. Continuing across the northwest side of Lake Tansi and west side of Lake Mohawk, the tornado crossed Nicholson Drive, Dunbar Road, then Lone Wolf Circle where two more people were killed. Widespread damage continued through the Parkway Estates area on Old Mail Road, Coon Hollow Road, Pigeon Ridge Road, and Davidson Road. The tornado began to weaken as it crossed Highway 127 into the Highland View area, crossing Highland Lane, Highway 70, and I-40 before lifting near McGinnis Road after approximately 16 miles on the ground. The path length and path width of this tornado were both increased based on high resolution satellite imagery. Newspapers also report at least 29 injured, while Storm Data lists 18 injured, so 29 is used here.
Thankfully, the Storm Prediction Center did a fantastic job warning everyone ahead of time. This was the thunderstorm outlook issued that day. They had been warning of this outbreak for days.
This was a picture taken of one of the tornadoes that struck Ohio from this outbreak. It’s one of the clearest tornado pictures taken that day.
This was a 3-D radar image of one of the tornadoes from this outbreak. That technology has increased by leaps and bounds since then! You all have seen me use WeatherTAP’s 3-D radar from time to time and you’ll see me use it much more often going forward, especially when I go live for severe weather coverage.
On a side note, I’ve been working with a company to provide warnings to you all through my site and app. Stay tuned for more info on that to come very soon.
Meanwhile, let’s be thankful for the quiet weather and remember all those who have been impacted by rough storms over the years in our area.
You all take care. And you know I’ll always do my best to keep you all informed on whatever may be coming our way.
