Baldwins Friday Funny Wx Blog for Sept 18

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Friday Funny

When Leaves Start to Turn

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

A dry and stable air mass has moved in, preventing any storms from developing over the next seven days.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Gradually decreasing clouds. Breezy.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and pleasant.

Sunday – Thursday: Mostly sunny and quite pleasant.

Today’s Choice of Outdoor Activity

Hiking! With some clouds and cooler/drier air moving in, along with a bit of a breeze, it’s the perfect day for a hike or any outdoor activity! The same will be true for tomorrow. Be sure and check out some of the trails of the hiking marathon taking place this month in Cumberland County at https://hikingmarathon.com/!

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

The fall hay weather forecast couldn’t possibly look any better! Be sure and take advantage of this great weather and get that fall hay in!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 116° at Winterhaven, California

Low: 22° at Grand Lake, Colorado

Tropics

The tropics continue to be very active, especially in the eastern Atlantic. The three yellow-shaded regions have low chances for development, but they’ll still be watched closely by the National Hurricane Center. The red-shaded region has a high chance for development and it will likely become a named storm within the next few days. That will more than likely be Alpha, as we’ll begin using the Greek alphabet.

The closest interest to the US is the depression in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. That will more than likely become Tropical Storm Wilfred by the end of the day. The track and intensity forecast for this system are both more uncertain than usual. The good news is that the system is in no hurry to get anywhere, so we have plenty of time to monitor it.

Hurricane Teddy is quite intense this morning, with 130 mph winds. The system is expected to pass extremely close to Bermuda Sunday night, possible bringing some very rough weather to the islands. The storm is then forecast to make an unusual turn westward toward Nova Scotia. While the storm will likely not have tropical characteristics when it hits Nova Scotia, it could still be packing winds of over 70 mph (or more)! This could be a very significant storm for Nova Scotia, with very severe impacts.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Unsettled weather can be found in the Pacific Northwest, where they desperately need some rain to fight wildfires. Unfortunately, that rain doesn’t quite make it into some parts of Nevada today and so the wildfire danger continues for the western and southern portions of that state. You’ll notice a developing tropical storm in the Gulf.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

More rain is expected across portions of the Northwest, which is good news! Tropical Storm Wilfred continues to spin in the Gulf, with little movement expected from that system.

 On This Day

1989 – Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, with northeastern sections of the island being deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a billion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops.

Long Range Outlook 

By the end of next week, some moisture may be increasing along the Gulf Coast. That depends on what Wilfred does in the Gulf. That system could then swing our direction by next weekend, but that forecast is quite tricky. Otherwise, the pattern for the middle to end of next week features lots of dry weather for the country, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, where they desperately need rain to fight wildfires. Unseasonably hot weather is expected across the northern plains, while we stay a bit cool.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

Hurricane Hunter Garrett Black (@BLack22wx) posted last evening that, “Buoys were dropped within the black circle out in front of Hurricane Teddy. Should be interesting to see what data they bring in tomorrow as the storm passes overhead.” The different colors you see represent different winds speeds collected by the hunters. Hurricane Teddy strengthened into a powerful cat 4 hurricane last night, with winds of 140 mph. Look closely and you’ll see the eye of the storm near the middle of the picture. Notice the Hurricane Hunters flew right through it. Teddy remains a powerful cat 4 this morning.

NASA Nerdology

This is the crew of the next manned rocket launch to the International Space Station (ISS) from American soil. Remember Behnken and Hurley were the first two to launch back on May 30. Now, a second manned launch, this time with the four astronauts below, is planned for October 23rd. Astonauts Michael Hopkins, Victor Glover, and Shannon Walker of NASA and Soichi Noguchi of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will launch to the ISS from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

You all have a great day!

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Baldwin’s Thursday Wx Blog for Sept 17

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Hazardous weather is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

After some showers today, a very stable atmosphere will move in, preventing any severe weather for many days.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a chance for a widely scattered shower/sprinkle. Most of us should stay dry.

Friday: Decreasing clouds. Becoming nice.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Pleasant.

Sunday – Wednesday: Mostly sunny, fall-like, and pleasant. Enjoy!

Today’s Choice of Outdoor Activity (New section!)

YARD WORK!

With cool and cloudy conditions expected today, it’s a good time to work in the yard/garden. Just be ready to dodge a light shower or sprinkle….perhaps.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

After we get past a slight chance for showers/sprinkles today, we are all set for a really nice stretch of good weather! This nice weather could last through all of next week, too!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 114° at both Ocotillo Wells & Mecca, California

Low: 21° at Walden, Colorado

Tropics

The area of red-shading in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is our most immediate concern to the US. It had looked like that would either dissipate or move into Mexico. Now, neither one of those options look likely. In fact, guidance is trending toward that system becoming a tropical storm and impacting the northern Gulf Coast at some point. Hurricane Hunters are investigating that system today and I’ll let you know what they find out.

Farther east, Hurricane Teddy has strengthened again this morning into a cat 2. It looks like he will brush Bermuda in the coming days and then try to possibly swing westward toward Maine at some point. That’s an odd track that will likely not verify, but we’ll watch it.

Vicky continues to weaken, so that’s good news. The orange-shaded region in the southern Atlantic could become a named storm over the next week. If so, that would be Alpha, because if Wilfred develops in the Gulf we’ll be out of names. We have never had to use the Greek alphabet this early. In fact, we’ve only used it in one other season (2005) and we didn’t need the Greek alphabet then until October 22nd of that year!

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The remnants of Sally will bring flooding rainfall and severe weather from Georgia to Virginia today. A rough day for those folks. Meanwhile, a system moving onto the Pacific Northwest coastline could bring some severe storms. They need rain, but not severe weather.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Things quieten down. There will be a wildfire danger across parts of southern Nevada and western Utah, though. Plus, all eyes will be watching that area of low pressure in the Gulf.

 On This Day

1989 – Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix, causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet also occurred there. The only rain gauge left operating, located at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches of rain fell in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars in damage. Nightcap, a ship located in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph! I’ll have more on Hugo in the coming days.

Long Range Outlook 

Outlooks continue to show cool and dry conditions for our area, even into the middle and end of next week. It does look like some moisture will be increasing for parts of the western US. Let’s hope that stays true for the folks dealing with wildfires!

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

I am a sucker for maps and this one is so very interesting! This map shows the number of flash flood warnings issued by county across the country from 2007 to 2019. I could analyze this all day!

I’ll point out a couple of things. First of all, notice the influence of the monsoon season across the Southwest US. When it rains it pours, right? Also notice that incredible concentration of warnings for the Lower Mississippi River Valley. That is fascinating. It is likely the result of tropical systems, as well as the meeting of cold fronts with Gulf moisture. I could analyze this all day…..

NASA Nerdology

Scientists just announced the sun is in a new cycle — meaning that we can expect to see solar activity start to ramp up over the next several years. Find out how these cycles are tracked and how they can affect life on Earth at https://go.nasa.gov/3hzt7G7. In the video below, imagine the scale of that solar “burst” of energy. It likely spans billions of miles. The size of space is overwhelming to our minds.

You all have a great day!

Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!

Baldwin’s Wednesday Wx Blog for Sept 16

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Hazardous weather is not expected over the next seven days. Sally’s southward track will rob our atmosphere of any energy the cold front could have worked with on Thursday. We will likely not even hear so much as a rumble of thunder over the next seven days!

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Just a slight chance for a shower/sprinkles.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance for showers. Many of us may stay dry. Sally will pull moisture from our atmosphere, stealing that moisture from our cold front.

Friday: Becoming partly cloudy. A nice day.

Saturday – Tuesday: Absolutely beautiful! Be sure and plan on getting outside!

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

With the southward track of Sally, our rain chances continue to drop. Some of us will stay dry through this forecast period. But, with the chance for a shower being with us all day tomorrow, any outdoor plan will be a bit compromised. Sally will even rob our atmosphere of any moisture our cold front could have worked with, so rain chances may drop even more for tomorrow. After that front clears our area, we are in for a string of nice days that may carry us through all of next week!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 112° at Brawley, California

Low: 22° at Peter Sinks, Utah

Tropics

The rainfall forecast tells you all you need to know about the track of Sally. Notice it all stays south of our area. Some portions of the southeast are going to pick up phenomenal amounts of rainfall today and tomorrow. This rainfall forecast is in addition to the 1-2 feet some areas near the coast have already measured!

The tropics are still extremely active. That disturbance in the Gulf (orange X) is now free to strengthen, now that Sally is moving away. It should stay closer to Mexico but we’ll have to keep a bit of an eye on it in the coming days. Paulette continues to move out to sea. Teddy is expected to become a major hurricane (more on him below this graphic). Vicky is dissipating and the orange X below her is expected to become a named storm and will need to be watched closely. We have one name left before we start using the Greek alphabet.

The folks in Bermuda have got to look at this forecast and say, “Come on, now!” I’ve said it so many times….why does that little group of islands end up in the path of so many storms? It’s so weird.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

All eyes are on the landfall of Hurricane Sally along the northern Gulf Coast. That storm will bring severe weather and flooding rainfall to that area. Some of the flooding will be catastrophic.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Sally continues to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Southeast, as she gradually weakens to a depression.

 On This Day

1928 – Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake!

Long Range Outlook 

Next week continues to look hot out west and cool in the east. Much of the country is looking very dry.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

When Sally makes landfall, it will be 8th continental US (CONUS) named storm to make landfall this year. This will be the most CONUS named storm landfalls on record through September 16 The prior record was 7 named storm landfalls set in 1916. (Philip Klotzback @philklotzbach).

Pictured below is a radar image of Sally at 9:20 am. I circled Mobile, Alabama for reference. The storm is currently making landfall just southeast of Mobile.

NASA Nerdology

A NASA Armstrong research aircraft is flying a science campaign over burn areas from the California wildfires. Aboard is a NASA Joint Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)-developed radar instrument, which helps identify areas most affected & those at risk of landslides and debris flows. For more info, please see https://go.nasa.gov/2FvJA12

You all have a great day!

Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!

Sally inching toward shore

Hurricane Sally is expected to make landfall sometime late tonight or early in the morning near Mobile, Alabama. The storm is crawling at 2 mph and has done this much of the day.

The storm is a cat 1 hurricane but the flooding will be horrific. Some locations will likely see more than three feet of rain. The current forecast calls for amounts of up to 30 inches but under-forecasting rainfall in these systems is an unfortunate problem in scenarios like this. Houston can tell you all about that after they had Harvey.

Slow-moving systems, even tropical storms, can bring an entire region to its knees. With tropical systems, it’s always the water. I always worry we’re getting people killed by rating these storms on wind. People hear that “it’s just a tropical storm” or “it’s just a cat 1 hurricane” and they automatically think they shouldn’t take it as seriously. BUT, it’s always the water that kills the most people and does the most damage. We need a flood scale a LOT worse than we ever needed a wind scale. Plus, the winds die down significantly after landfall.

Consider this, water broke the levees in New Orleans during Katrina, not the wind. A tropical storm could have done the same thing. In fact, they don’t evacuate that city unless a serious hurricane is coming, even though a tropical storm could flood that city worse than some major hurricanes. It’s a mess. Thankfully, Sally missed New Orleans, sparing them an absolutely devastating flood that would have likely, in my opinion, rivaled Katrina.

Keep the folks in the path of this storm close to your hearts. The flooding is going to be historic and catastrophic for many areas.

Sally looks threatening on satellite this evening. That’s a lot of water to move inland tonight and tomorrow.

The northern edge of the storm is already reaching into TN and the Cumberland Plateau.

You all have a good evening and be sure and be thankful for the weather we have. There are a lot of people who would like to trade places with us tonight.