Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Tues., Jan 26

Headlines 

Beautiful today!

Rain & snow for Wednesday

Another big storm system arrives Saturday

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly sunny skies and mild. A good day to get outside and enjoy some fresh air!

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, with showers in the afternoon. Showers transition to snow in the evening and overnight, as temperatures tumble. Light accumulation possible (<1″).

Thursday: Mostly sunny and colder.

Friday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer.

Saturday: Clouds increase, with showers likely by evening. Becoming more widespread overnight. A rumble of thunder is possible.

Sunday: A chance for showers. Possibly mixing with snow overnight (if there’s any moisture left).

Monday: Colder. A chance for snow flurries.

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

Most of the guidance is suggesting that the majority of the precipitation will be gone before colder air arrives. However, there is enough confidence that we will see some snow for it to warrant mentioning. Accumulations, at best, could reach one inch. The vast majority of us should see a dusting to one half inch. I’ll let you know if anything changes!

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

Those storms last night were rowdy! Thank goodness we didn’t get any warmer than what we did before those arrived. I just hope that isn’t a sign of stormier days to come, as we move closer to spring. The first thunder of the new year was certainly noticeable!

Another system moves in tomorrow and it’s another game of cat-n-mouse with the cold air and moisture. Cold air will rush in but will there be moisture left over for snow? I think there will be. I’m just not sure how much will accumulate. With the ground being wet and warmer it could take too long for the snow to stick. When I forecast “one inch or less”, I really mean “or less” this time.

Yet another system arrives for the weekend. This one is a bit more interesting. Some guidance is suggesting we could have more thunderstorms but I’m just not quite sure of that just yet. This precip could also end as snow flurries by Sunday night but it’s far too early to make any speculations. I’ll definitely be monitoring this system over the coming days.

On This Day in Wx History

1832- The Sparta Recorder and Law Journal reports that a cold snap drops temperatures to -18 degrees at Sparta, -26 degrees at McMinnville, and -18 degrees at Nashville. (The official all-time record low at Nashville is -17.)

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 90° at Harlingen, Texas 

Low: -27° at Cotton, Minnesota

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Wintry weather can be found in a swath from the Southwest to the Northeast. Very heavy snow will fall in the mountains of the Sierra Nevada in California, where several feet of snow will fall today!

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Rain and snow spread across the Midsouth, becoming all snow farther north and across New England. Heavy snow continues out west, where additional heavy snow will fall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, with flooding rains in the valleys.

 Weather Shots

This is another graphic designed by Evan Fisher (@EFisherWX), showing another look at the incredible snowfall forecast in the Sierra Nevada over the coming days. Snow totals may reach *10 feet* across the highest elevations! If you can’t find me you’ll know where I’m at! (ha!)

NASA Nerdology 

This kind of stuff really blows my mind….

The Hubble Space Telescope is like a time machine. Because the light from distant galaxies travels so many light-years, our images show them as they were when they emitted light billions of years ago. The deeper Hubble peers into space, the further back it looks in time! Mind…Blown….

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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All Clear (11:45 pm)

Need I say more? (ha)

What’s left of our storms have weakened dramatically and are pushing east. Still, you may hear some thunder and pick up a bit more rain across mainly the southern end of Cumberland County.

There are no warnings and there haven’t been any warnings in TN for at least a couple of hours now.

Don’t forget to get a weather radio before the big spring storms get here! It looks like we’re off to a rowdy start already. This is the one I highly recommend. They usually have them at Walmart, Kroger, and Amazon. They commonly sell for about $30.

You all have a good night’s sleep!

I’ll have a full blog update in the morning!

10:00 Severe Wx Update

Storms are currently pushing across the plateau and they remain below severe limits. Storms are now moving into the Cookeville and Livingston areas. The tornado watch for parts of southern Middle Tennessee is being chipped away.

Pictured below is the current radar, with the borders of Cumberland and Fentress Counties highlighted for reference.

There have been some severe t-storm warnings around our region but none within our region. That is unlikely to change. Even where the environment is better conducive for severe storms, those storms are struggling. We just don’t have the atmospheric support necessary for widespread severe storms.

Never the less, I’ll keep an eye on these as the push across the plateau. It had looked like they would be out of here by 10:00 but storms aren’t progressing as quickly as I would have liked.

Again, storms are struggling and even if we do get a severe storm it should be short-lived and pose a damaging wind gust threat, at most.

I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know when I feel like the threat has completely exited our region.

Severe Wx Update (Issued at 7:55 pm)

Storms have been behaving themselves, for the most part, as they move across Middle Tennessee this evening. A few severe weather reports have been made but most of the storms are staying below severe limits. I did see a report of large hail near Murfreesboro earlier.

I just heard my first thunder of 2021 just a few moments ago. It’s been a while since we’ve heard those distant rumbles! We’ll certainly hear more thunder as we go through the evening.

We’ll be mindful of storms for the next couple of hours. It still looks like the greatest severe weather risk is off to our southwest. I still can’t rule out an isolated strong to severe storm on the plateau through about 10:00.

Earlier today, I noted a band of rain that had set up along I-40 and I took a screen shot of the radar. These boundaries are something a meteorologist cannot ignore, especially during severe weather season. We’re not quite to that season yet but I wanted to grab that screenshot and compare it to this evening’s activity. Sure enough, the rain and storms are favoring that same boundary from earlier today. Pretty neat, right?

The top image is from earlier today and the bottom image is right now. We’ll watch such boundaries very closely when severe weather season ramps up this spring.

I’ll update again when the threat has ended, or as needed. Again, this is a low-end threat but it’s not zero. The main risk is a damaging wind gust and some small hail. The threat should end by about 10:00.