I continue to monitor things closely and will until the threat has passed. I have my oreos, coffee, and peanut M&Ms, so I’m good to go. Some have asked if I have the cheeseballs with me. Those are for snow events. Let’s keep this real. lol
A tornado watch has been issued for much of Middle TN, but it stops just short of Cumberland and Fentress counties. Nevertheless, this is too close for comfort, and we’ll be weather-aware as a line of strong to severe storms threaten our area later tonight.
The 8:00 update from the Storm Prediction Center left our threats the same as their previous update. We remain in the slight risk, with the greatest threat being damaging winds gusts from this line of storms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are possible in the strongest storms.
The line of storms coming through West TN at this hour is packing a punch. I do notice that their air is more humid than ours. Our drier air (though it’s still humid) will contribute to storms weakening a bit as they arrive.
However, the storm system responsible for all of this is still strengthening in Arkansas. That will likely allow storms to pack a punch right on into our neck of the woods. As I stated earlier, the low level jet is cranking and those winds could be brought to the surface in stronger storms.
It continues to look like the line will cross the plateau around 2:00 a.m. The latest run of the HRRR model (short-term radar model) shows this well. The line is expected to be weakening as it crosses our area, though it may still pack a punch, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat.
The model below begins at midnight and ends at 5:00 a.m.
My concern for damaging wind gusts is unchanged from the last update, but my concern for tornadoes has dropped a bit, owing to some of the latest observations and data coming in. Please continue to take this seriously, even in light of this bit of good news.
I’m not sure what the Storm Prediction Center will do about this tornado watch. If the line continues to pack a punch, they may extend the watch eastward. Or, they may issue a severe t-storm watch that starts with us and covers East TN. I’ll keep a close eye on that.
Our hearts go out to those in Mississippi who have been so heavily impacted by tornados. I lived in Starkville, Mississippi (Mississippi State) for several years and those folks are close to my heart. They’re good people that you’d love to have for neighbors. If you don’t mind, send a prayer up for them tonight.