Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Mon., March 1

March arrives like a lamb today……..

Headlines 

One rain system comes to an end

Another rain system moves in Tuesday night

A pleasant end to the week

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Five-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Mainly morning showers, followed by mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies continue, with rain showers developing overnight.

Wednesday: A chance for a morning shower, followed by clearing skies. Lots of sunshine by the afternoon.

Thursday & Friday: Mostly sunny and pleasant.

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Meteorologist Mark’s 5-Day Wx Concerns

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

We are entering a rather benign pattern for this time of year. After this weekend’s spring-like rains, we’ve only one other system to look forward to over the next seven days. That system will swing through tomorrow night with a chilly rain. Some of you may even see a snowflake mix in with that rain from time to time. After that, things get quiet.

But, you know March…..like a toddler, this month doesn’t stay quiet for long.

On This Day in Wx History

1910 – The deadliest avalanche on record in the United States thundered down the mountains near Wellington Station, Washington. The avalanche swept three locomotive train engines and some passenger cars over the side of a mountain and into a canyon. They were on their way to Stevens Pass. The train was buried under tons of snow. The avalanche claimed the lives of more than 100 people. The station house at Wellington was also swept clean away. 

Almanac

18 Days until Spring!

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 94° at Falcon Lake, Texas 

Low: -32° at Peter Sinks, Utah

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Accumulating snowfall can be found across portions of the Great Lakes. Elsewhere, a wintry mix can be found across the Northeast, with little to no impacts.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Aside from some accumulating snowfall along the US/Canada border of New England and Michigan, no hazardous weather is expected this day.

 Weather Shots

I like meteorological spring better than astronomical spring because ours starts today! In the atmospheric sciences, we do our seasons by three-month increments. Happy first day of meteorological spring, everyone!

NASA Nerdology 

After traveling several billion miles toward the Sun, a wayward young comet-like object orbiting among the giant planets has found a temporary parking place along the way. The object has settled near a family of captured ancient asteroids, called Trojans, that are orbiting the Sun alongside Jupiter. This is the first time a comet-like object has been spotted near the Trojan population.

The unexpected visitor belongs to a class of icy bodies found in space between Jupiter and Neptune. Called “Centaurs,” they become active for the first time when heated as they approach the Sun, and dynamically transition into becoming more comet-like.

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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Sunday Severe Wx Update (Issued at 9:15 pm)

Storms have struggled, as they do when the atmosphere doesn’t support them like they would prefer to be supported. We had warm and humid air here at the surface, but things aloft just weren’t very supportive.

The Storm Prediction Center just issued a special discussion for our area (red-outlined area) stating that they feel like the severe thunderstorm watch should be allowed to expire at 10:00 pm. They feel like the atmosphere is stabilizing and that the threat will no longer warrant a watch. I agree.

As I’ve said all along, the atmospheric dynamics have never impressed me and they continue to not impress me. Temps are cooling a bit with nightfall and that is helping stabilize things, as well. That bodes well for us. I had wondered why the watch ended at 10:00, since storms would be coming even after that point. But, those storms, as I mentioned earlier today, are expected to continue to weaken as they approach the plateau tonight.

We do have a lot of rain yet to come. I would expect 1-2 inches or rain area-wide. The heavy rain continues to be the greater threat, especially if you live in a flood-prone area. On the radar below, I highlighted the border of Cumberland County, for reference. That’s a lot of rain coming.

I’ll continue to watch things. Even if the watch expires at 10:00, we could still have a strong or severe storm pop up somewhere. It would just be so isolated and brief that a watch for the whole area would not be warranted.

This will be my final update for the evening, unless otherwise needed. You all sleep well and enjoy the sounds of a rainy night.

Severe T-Storm Watch until 10:00 pm

Please see the 7:00 pm update for more information. This is just to let you know that a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for our area until 10:00pm. Be prepared for the threat to last longer than that timeframe. I’m not sure why they didn’t extend this until midnight.

Never the less, just stay up-to-date right here and keep an eye on that radar.

You all take care.

Sunday Severe Wx Update (Issued at 7:00pm)

WHAT: A strong/severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall. This threat will come with a line of storms along a cold front later on.

WHEN: Between 9:00 pm – 1:00 a.m. (Backed up one hour to account for a storm or two that may develop ahead of the main line).

WHEN DOES THE THREAT END? The threat should end by 1:00 am for everyone on the plateau.

NEXT METEOROLOGIST MARK UPDATE: As needed.

My concern is still low and I don’t foresee changes with that. Still, a low threat is not a zero threat, so let’s be weather aware tonight, just to be safe & sound. A special discussion was just issued for Middle Tennessee by the Storm Prediction Center stating that they believe the line of storms will struggle to make it this far east. They elaborated on something many of us have noticed on radar….that storms are struggling, even in the better environment they find themselves in across West Tennessee.

As always, have multiple ways to get alerts. Let this be a reminder that the spring severe weather season is just getting started. Make sure you’re prepared. You may not need these tonight but I can promise you that you will need this at some point over the next few months. Get that weather radio, if you don’t already have one. This is the one I highly recommend (https://midlandusa.com/product/wr-120-weather-radio/). Shop around and you may find this model cheaper on Amazon, etc.

So, the story hasn’t changed. I still expect a line of strong storms to move through here later tonight. Gusty winds, possibly damaging at times, will be the greatest threat. A brief spin-up tornado is possible but unlikely.

Remember, we still have a flood watch in effect for the threat of heavy downpours that could lead to flooding. Our soils are saturated and rivers are full, so it won’t take much rain to cause some localized flooding issues.

Finally, as if the weather didn’t feel like spring, have you heard the frogs tonight? It feels and sounds like spring outside.

I’ll keep an eye on things and update as needed.

Pictured below is the current radar. I highlighted the borders of Fentress and Cumberland Counties, for reference. The area with the smaller circle are storms ahead of the main line that may move in within the next couple of hours. The main line is farther to the west. Notice all that rainfall!