After being asked so many times, I’m releasing my outlook for the winter ahead…sorta. (ha) I hope you enjoy!
You can watch the YouTube below for an indepth discussion or skip to the grahics below. Thank you!
Past El Nino winters have brought various amounts of snow, from half an inch for an entire winter to nearly 29 inches in another. That 28.8″ total came mostly from one winter storm in February of 1998.
The map below shows the favored El Nino scenario. This isn’t a guarantee, but it’s rather typical for an El Nino year. There have been El Nino winters when we had a drought.
El Nino results from the weakening of the trade winds over the Pacific. This allows the warm water to “back up” to South America. This causes a belt of low pressure to develop there that influences other circulation/pressure patterns around the globe. This El Nino is expected to be strong but it is too early to know if it will be the strongest one we’ve ever recorded. The “super El Nino” talk is a lot of hype, so be aware of that.
NOAA released their winter outlook this week and they show above normal precip favored well to our south and southeast. This is rather typical of a strong El Nino pattern.
NOAA also forecast a tendencey for above normal temps for our area, which is also pretty typical of an El Nino year. Yes, there will be cold days but the tendency will lean toward warmer days. This has led to an uptick in winter severe weather during some El Nino years for us.
HOWEVER, and this is a BIG HOWEVER…the arctic oscillation is what determines how much cold air ever comes down south. Without cold air, we can’t get snow. We can’t know when this cold air will come down until about 1-2 weeks ahead of time. So, one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle (cold air) will remain a mystery until 7-14 days out.
Nothing changes the basic equation for snow. If any one peice of the puzzle is missing….we miss out on snow.
You all know I’ll be watching everything so closely as we go through the winter and letting you know about anything that I think you need to know about. No hype. No drama. No crazy AI graphics. Just a reliable forecast that is tailor-made for the plateau each and every day.
You all take care and thank you so much for trusting me with your weather!
