I am a local meteorologist for the Upper Cumberlands of Tennessee. I absolutely love tracking and forecasting the weather for this region! It is certainly an interesting place for weather!
If you ever want to talk weather you have found an ear! I hope you enjoy reading my blog as much as I enjoy writing for it!
5:30 Update: A cool and stable layer of air here at the surface is keeping many of this evening’s wind gusts aloft, unable to reach the surface. Therefore winds have eased considerably this evening. The wind advisory is still in effect but surface observations around the region show little evidence for it to continue. In addition to our cool surface layer, the storm itself also continues to rapidly unwind. The combination of these two factors has therefore led to much more relaxed winds across the area than expected.
The flood watch was canceled earlier, the tornado threat has ended, and now winds are weakening. We’ve been on a good trend for the past few hours, for sure!
Showers will continue to be a threat through the night and at least the first half of Sunday. While the wind has decreased with this system, there are still plenty of showers leftover from it. It will take the system a while to move through the area, which means it will take a while for the showers to move out.
With winds relaxing and threats quickly subsiding, my concern is lower than ever!
I’ve updated the detailed forecast for this update.
I’ve also updated the hourly graph below to remove gusty winds.
I’m also adding tomorrow’s hourly forecast to give you a heads up for what to expect. Moisture will continue to impact the area in the form of scattered showers.
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Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
We are enjoying a nice break from what we call the “dry slot” of these low pressure systems. As an FYI, these dry slots are what kill snowfall totals in the winter when we have Gulf lows (ha..you all know me, always thinking about snow. lol). Showers will develop in this dry slot as we go through the afternoon but they will be scattered. Those showers will continue through the night and into the first half of the day Sunday.
Winds will continue through this afternoon, night, and through Sunday. We’re still looking at widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph today, with isolated gusts as high as 50 mph.
The current radar image below shows our dry slot, with rain on both sides of us. Again, showers will develop within this slot but they will be scattered about, along with areas of drizzle. Notice those wind reports in southern Middle TN. They have several reports of downed trees down in that part of the state.
Look how big this storm continues to be! The leading edge, like what pushed onto the plateau Thursday evening, is now in northern Michigan. Also notice the clearing in East TN. That’s from downsloping winds from the mountains (from the winds blowing from the east). That causes the air to sink into the valley and help clear the skies out. You can also see Tropical Storm Rachel over in the Pacific that will move into southern California late tonight.
My concern is leaning in the right direction now! My main concern is how gusty the winds will get as we go through the day and into the evening.
This graphic has been updated to remove the tornado and flood threats.
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Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
12:25 Update: We have indeed found ourselves in an afternoon break in the steadier rain that we had this morning….barely. We’re sandwiched steadier rain in East TN and steadier rain across much of Middle TN. Scattered showers will develop even within this break, while we all continue with gusty winds.
A wind advisory continues for today. Be prepared for sporadic power outages, as some wind gust could hit 50 mph. Widespread gusts of 30-40 mph are likely to be common.
I’ll keep a close eye on Isaias and issue special updated, as needed.
The concern meter is unchanged from where I started. We’ll see how this progresses today!
MM’s Wx Analysis
The impacts of Isaias really stand out on the daily weather map. However, folks in southern California are keeping an eye on Rachel, a tropical storm expected to make landfall there tonight. This is rather rare. The last time they had a tropical system impact them was 2023. Before that, you have to go back to 1997. Interestingly, Rachel is quite responsible for all the moisture you see up the Rockies. Her moisture, combined with a cold upper-level low, is helping produced all sorts of precip across the West.
You can’t see it on the map but another major hurricane is hitting western Mexico tonight as a possible cat 5.
There were no storm reports on Friday (reports from Isaias will be compiled separately).
Radar-Estimated Precip from Yesterday
Unavailable today.
Night Sky
Drought Conditions
This map updates each Thursday.
Last week’s update can be seen below, for reference.
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Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
8:45 Special Update: The National Hurricane Center is reporting that Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida at 8:30 this evening. The storm was a cat 2 at landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
The rest of the info below is from the special post I made earlier this evening. My forecast remains on track.
Make sure you prepare for power outages and that you secure any outdoor decorations or anything else that is loose and that could fly around.
The storm looks impressive on satellite this evening. It remains a very high-end cat 2 this evening, with winds now at 110 mph. Wind shear is finally causing the storm to slowly weaken. This update just came in a few minutes ago.
There are no significant changes with the forecast path. The only changes to note are the shift to the northeast coming a little bit quicker and taking the center over Fentress County.
While the risk for tornadoes is low on Saturday, it’s certainly not zero. Tornadoes spawned from hurricanes almost always occur in the right, front quadrant of the storm. This is also where the gustiest winds and heaviest rainfall occurr (and it’s where the worst storm surge occurs at the coastline). These tornadoes are typically weak and short-lived. They are difficult to warn for because they can spin up so quickly. They can even occur in heavy showers that have little or no lightning.
These are typical of the tornadoes that the NWS may fail to warn us for on the plateau. The radar beam is at around 10,000 feet by the time it gets to the plateau, making it difficult to see shallow and weak rotation with such storms.
Thankfully, the NWS does a great job overall of warning for storms. For instance, of the 30 documented tornadoes in Cumberland County since records began, three were unwarned. (Note: Eight of the 30 occurred before warnings were issued for storms). Of the three that were unwarned, ALL occurred on days when we knew there was a risk for a tornado. One of the three occurred in a severe t-storm warning where the risk of a tornado was mentioned. Another of the three had a tornado warning (Pleasant Hill) but it came out too late, as the tornado had already lifted. We have never had an unwarned tornado that hurt or killed anyone. Ever. For that, we can be very thankful. Every single significant tornado on the Cumberland Plateau has had a tornado warning and most of the time that warning was multiple minutes long. I say this to reinforce the idea of weather radios. With the NWS warning so well for storms, that means your weather radio would go off (and storm siren if someone gets the warning and sounds the siren).
The graph below shows how tornadoe’s form with tropical systems. Basically, faster winds just off the ground casue a rolling motion. If that rolling motion can be tilted upward by an updraft, it can become vertical, tighten, and become a tornado.
I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know if there’s anything you need to know about!
I want to give a quick shout-out to the York Elementary 4th Graders! I spoke with them this afternoon about the weather and they were a fantastic group of kiddos! Thanks for having me out (and how well-timed was this visit? lol).
You all take care and have a great evening!
Thank You, Sponsors!
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
