An active pattern to pay attention to

today

Weather Headlines

–Rain increases in coverage and intensity today

–Rain tapers off on Saturday, giving us mostly cloudy skies and just a slight chance for a shower for the Christmas parade

–The next system brings the threat for strong to severe storms on Monday (monitoring)

Main threats

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday. Right now, that threat looks greatest after dark. The threat increases as you go west of the plateau. I’ll be monitoring this very closely.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area of concern for Monday. As of now, that area is just southwest of our area. They were right to point out that this is still a few days away, and an expansion of the risk area is probably in the coming days. I’ll keep you posted!

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Summary

We’ll see rain developing today across the plateau. That rain will become more widespread as the day progresses.

As we go through our Saturday, this system will be moving out. We can’t rule out a stray shower for the Christmas parade in Crossville, but I think we’ll be mostly dry.

Sunday will be our lull between systems. Enjoy it.

On Monday, a powerful storm system will move into our area, bringing with it showers and storms. Our atmosphere may become unstable enough to support the threat of severe thunderstorms, especially Monday evening/night. I’ll keep a close eye on this.

As colder air sweeps in behind this system, we may see some snow flurries Tuesday morning.

Almanac

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Records

On this day in 1962 Crossville set a new record low for the month of December. That bitter low temp was 17 degrees below zero! Brrrrr

Friday Funny

There was a communist named Rudolph.
One day he looked out the window and said, “It looks like a storm is coming.”

“No it isn’t,” said his wife.
“Besides, how would you know?”

“Because,” he responded, “Rudolph the Red knows rain, dear.”

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NASA Knowledge

NASA’s Juno explorer has been investigating Jupiter since July 2016. It explores the planet from just about 2,100 feet above the surface. The craft is designed in such a way that it needs sunlight 24 hours a day. Unfortunately, an eclipse threatened to put the craft in darkness for 12 hours, a situation that would have meant certain death for Juno. Thankfully, engineers figured out a way to keep Juno free from the darkness of the eclipse.

As Juno made its new path around Jupiter, it discovered something we might not have ever seen had it not been for this new path plan. A new storm was discovered near the South Pole. In the image below, the central storm is outlined by the U.S. to show a size comparison. The newest storm is shown outlined by Texas.

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Studying the development of these storms sheds light on other storms on other planets, including our own! We may figure out things about our own weather by studying the weather that occurs on other planets, etc. In the image above, the six outer storms seem to be controlled by the inner storm. That inner storm appears stable and able to sustain itself for incredible lengths of time.

Wind speeds with this newest cyclone are estimated at 225 mph!

Jupiter’s North Pole has even more storms, with nine. I’m not sure Santa could survive the North Pole on Jupiter. lol

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

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News

Last night’s MASTER a Science class went so well! I hope the kids and parents enjoyed it as much as I did. The next class is January 23 (same place, same time). Registration is required and that will be made available about a week before the class.

You all have a great day!

 

Weather Update for Tonight

Many of you have asked me about tonight’s weather. Special weather statements have been issued for parts of East TN for the possibility of light freezing rain toward Friday morning. That is due to cold air that may be trapped in the valley in the morning. That happens now and again down there. It’s a situation where they may worry about freezing rain, while we do not.

The plateau’s elevation actually helps us out on nights like tonight. We’re actually up in the warmer air. Normally, we’re up in the colder air but on night’s like tonight that’s a little bit flipped.

South winds are already blowing here on the plateau. In response, my thermometer has risen four degrees in the past two hours. I’m 42 degrees here in the north end of the county. Knoxville, meanwhile, is 41 degrees.

Winds tend to increase with height and on nights like tonight, we’ll have breezes on the plateau. Thankfully, those are warmer south breezes. Those same winds will blow over the valley of East TN, giving them very light to calm winds that let the cold night air settle into the valley.

The diagram below does a good job showing this. Stronger winds push up and onto the plateau from the southwest, while they just kinda blow over the top of the valley, or lightly settle into it.

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For the most part, the valley should also be alright in the morning. If you have to travel east of Knoxville things could be a lot trickier. Crossville to Knoxville should be fine.

You all have a good evening! In tomorrow morning’s blog I’ll have an update on the Crossville Christmas parade weather, as well as an update on Monday’s severe storm potential.

Good night!

Weather Update-DL3_091518_JT-01

 

A stormier change to the forecast….

In this morning’s blog, I mentioned that I may have to add thunder to the forecast on Monday. That was based on guidance from last night and yesterday. This morning’s guidance is only reinforcing that.

I just listened in on a discussion from the NWS Nashville just now and they are now asking folks to pay attention to the weather over the weekend concerning Monday. They are right to advise that.

Now, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to go ahead and outline an area for severe t-storms for Monday.  They don’t highlight areas this far out unless their confidence is unusually high for storms. This comes right up to the western edge of the plateau. This area of severe weather potential could easily be expanded eastward over the coming days. In fact, I expect it to.

All modes of severe weather would be possible, including the risk for tornadoes.

I’ll keep a close eye on this and I’ll keep you all informed. I know many of us are busy this time of year, so I wanted to give you an early heads up that Monday could be a rough weather day for our area. Plus, few people are looking for severe weather this time of year but we can certainly have it!

See why it’s important to constantly follow the blog? Snow one day, the threat of severe storms the next. The plateau is a crazy place in the winter! ha I’ll stay on top of it for ya!

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