3:30 pm Sunday Storm Update

I have some good news to pass along.

The latest update, issued at 3:00 pm, from the Storm Prediction Center now drops much of the plateau from the marginal risk. Temperatures have struggled to warm into the mid to upper 70s and that is just not quite enough to fire off severe storms in this environment. As I mentioned last night and this morning, early clouds and rain were indeed slow to move out, sparing us from achieving maximum heating necessary for rough weather.

For the rest of the evening, we still have a 50% chance for showers, and storms and a few storms could still be on the strong side. Widespread severe weather is looking very unlikely. Just keep an eye to the sky if your out and about this evening, especially if you’re camping outdoors or spending the evening on the water. Any storm will always produce lightning and that is something we always want to be careful around.

My severe weather concern has now declined back to the low end of the scale.

Wx Blog Slides - 2020-07-12T152312.785

You all have a good evening. Remember, Comet Neowise is supposed to be visible this evening if skies cooperate. That should happen about an hour after sunset. I’m feeling better about that view now! I’ll send out a special update to let you know where to look and what to look for later this evening.

You all take care and enjoy your Sunday! Don’t forget to follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox! Just look for the “follow” button in the lower right corner of your screen. Thank you!

57b7be1f66248.image_

12:55 pm Sunday Update

WHAT: Strong, possibly severe, storms

WHEN: 4:00 – 7:00 pm

Our cloudy skies and rain-cooled airmass are keeping us stable at this point. Satellite imagery shows the clouds are thinning and even clearing out to our north and west. If we get sunshine this afternoon, our atmosphere will destabilize again, just in time for another round of storms later this evening.

Storms are already developing along the western border of Kentucky. Those will push our way as we go through the afternoon. If we get lots of sunshine between now and then, those storms could intensify. If we stay cooler and more stable, the storms will struggle.

The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for our area. The good news is that the tornado threat is very close to zero now.

I’ll keep an eye on things. My concern has dropped a notch or two, but if storms begin organizing as they move into Kentucky, my concern will increase again. The main threat is damaging straight-line winds.

Wx Blog Slides - 2020-07-12T125018.480

57b7be1f66248.image_

Baldwin’s Sunday Story Wx Blog for July 12

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Wx Blog Slides - 2020-07-12T085007.386

Threats

Wx Blog Slides (91)

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in the marginal risk for severe storms for this afternoon and evening. Any storm that develops will be capable of damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado is also possible, though that chance is quite slim.

By the middle of next week, very hot and humid conditions will settle in. We’ll need to be mindful of that heat and drink plenty of water and stay in the shade.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Wx Blog Slides (95)

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Wx Blog Slides - 2020-07-12T084504.931

Daily Forecast

Today: Scattered showers and storms. A few storms may be severe, with damaging winds and large hail.

Monday – Tuesday: Mostly sunny and pleasant, with lower humidity levels.

Wednesday: Humidity starts to make a comeback. This may lead to an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon/evening.

Thursday – Friday: Very hot and humid. An isolated storm possible in the afternoon/evening. Be safe in the heat.

Saturday: Continued very humid, but with a slightly better chance for afternoon/evening storms.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Today is the worst day on the outlook. Monday and Tuesday will feature low humidity, making them nearly perfect days for cutting hay. Humidity increases by mid to late week, but most of us should still stay dry. Afternoon storm chances increase a bit by the weekend.

Wx Blog Slides - 2020-07-12T085404.813

Almanac

Wx Blog Slides - 2020-07-12T085124.715

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 124 at Death Valley, California

Low: 26 at Copper Basin, Idaho

Tropics

No threats expected for the next five days.

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Severe storms will threaten an area of the southern plains. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado. Some stronger storms may also threaten the Southeast during the afternoon and evening, as a cold front passes through.

SundayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Widespread strong to severe storms will affect the northern plains on Monday. All modes of severe weather are possible, including extremely large hail that could fall across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. The wildfire danger becomes elevated across southern Utah once again.

SundayThreat2

Tuesday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

A quieter day across the country.

SundayThreat3

Records

Livingston (Overton County) set their all-time record high on this day in 1980. The mercury in Livingston hit 108 degrees that afternoon.

Sunday Story

Remember, if you can hear the thunder you’re close enough to be struck by lightning. Lightning has been known to travel for at least 20 miles from a thunderstorm. That’s a long way for a lightning bolt to travel.

Twenty miles is, indeed, an incredible distance for a lightning strike to travel, but it was recently discovered that lightning can travel much, much farther than that!

Each year, the World Meteorological Society (WMO) meets to determine the validity of records. Just last month, the WMO met and confirmed a satellite observation of a lightning flash having traveled 440 miles across the skies of southern Brazil on October 31, 2018! That’s right, 440 miles!

That incredible distance sets a new world record for longest distance travelled by a flash of lightning. The previous record was set in June of 2007, when a flash of lightning traveled 199.5 miles across the skies of Oklahoma.

The WMO also certified the account of a single lightning flash lasting 16.73 seconds. That flash occurred over northern Argentina on March 4, 2019.That more than doubles the previous record for a single flash, set in France in 2012.

These incredible lightning flashes are referred to collectively as “magaflashes”. They often occur in large complexes of thunderstorms. We often refer to these as squall lines in our neck of the woods.

With improved satellite observations, it is believed that even longer flash lengths and durations will be found around the globe as time goes on.

Lightning is certainly one of Nature’s most dangerous phenomena. Don’t forget that when you hear thunder’s roar, move indoors!

You all have a great day!

forecast_template-57

Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!

8:30 pm Saturday Night Storm Update

I thought I’d give everyone a quick update on the storm potential for our Sunday.

Currently, radar shows a complex of thunderstorms, some of which are severe, making their way into northern Kentucky at this hour. Those are expected to weaken as they sink southward. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong storm or two out of this for you folks along and north of a line from Livingston to Jamestown.

071120

The much greater risk for severe storms will come on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. Another complex of storms is expected to develop overnight and affect Middle TN by Sunday morning. If this complex is quick to move through, our chances for severe storms increases for Sunday. If the complex is slow and keeps our skies cloudy/rainy longer, our chances for severe storms decreases.

As of now, indications are that we’ll be dealing with severe storms in the area Sunday afternoon. Please keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans, as our atmosphere is liable to become very unstable and storms will be capable of becoming severe rather quickly. Some models show isolated storms going severe in a matter of minutes after forming. That certainly seems reasonable, considering the atmosphere we will have in place tomorrow.

All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado, but the greater threat will be damaging straight-line winds and hail.

My severe weather concern for Sunday has now increased a bit from this morning’s update.

Wx Blog Slides (94)

I’ll be keeping an eye on all of it for you all! Just keep it right here and I’ll keep you informed.

You all have a nice evening. I’ll have a full update in the morning, or as needed.

57b7be1f66248.image_