Month: September 2019

Dorian now has the strongest winds for a hurricane this far north (26.5°N) in the Atlantic east of Florida on record. This is a record we don’t like seeing broken, but that’s just what has now happened.

Many of us can’t recall ever seeing a hurricane with so much lightning in the eyewall. It’s unusual, to say the least, but Dorian is anything but normal.

If Dorian were weaker, I’d say this burst in lightning activity is a sign of strengthening. Let’s hope that’s not the case. Lightning activity in hurricanes is not common, as there is not enough ice crystals to generate a charge difference between liquid water (negative charge) and ice crystals (positively charged). Hurricanes are very warm throughout (relatively speaking).

In the image below, notice the bursts of lightning strikes all around the eyewall. Odd, indeed. Even when we do see bursts of lightning in hurricanes, it’s most often confined to the northwest quadrant, not all around the eyewall.

Hurricane Hunters have now found winds of 175 mph. Wind gusts are over 200 mph. This is like an EF4 tornado, with gusts to EF5. This is an absolutely catastrophic, historic hurricane folks.

The National Hurricane Center had this to say, “These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours.”

ALL residents of the US East Coast are URGED to monitor this storm closely. Models are barely equipped to forecast “regular” hurricanes, much less ones of this magnitude.

I don’t think this week’s article could have been better planned. Read along and you’ll see what I mean. I hope you enjoy the Sunday Story!

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Long-range forecasting poses one of the greatest challenges in weather forecasting. In an atmosphere where trillions of equations are changing by the second, it’s a wonder short-range forecasts are ever right, much less long range!

Thankfully, people have been studying the weather since the dawn of man, so we’ve learned a thing or two. The addition of supercomputers took us forward by leaps and bounds. 

Meteorologists are often asked to look far into the future. Folks make plans well in advance of a trip in order to get the best deals, but they want to be assured that the weather will cooperate. 

I recently had someone ask if I thought the hurricane season would get more active in September. After all, they had beach plans and they wanted them to be hurricane free. 

Guidance does suggest a more active period coming. One of the things we look for is high pressure in the Southeast US. High pressure typically brings sunny skies and pleasant weather for us, but that same high could be consequential for the tropics this time of year.

When high pressure is in control of the Southeast, that means the air is sinking and suppressing cloud development across that region. That sinking air must eventually rise again. The edge of the clockwise-spinning center of high pressure is where that air begins to rise again, leading to storminess there.  

With high pressure and sinking air over the Southeast, the edge of the high pressure is often found across the Gulf of Mexico. If storminess develops along that edge and in the Gulf this time of year, we have to monitor it for tropical development.  

So, the next time the forecast calls for high pressure and clear skies for Tennessee, keep an eye on the tropics. Our good weather fortune could be their tropical misfortune. 

Hurricane Hunters have found winds of 160 mph this morning, making Dorian a catastrophic cat 5 hurricane. All residents of Florida’s East Coast are strongly urged to monitor this storm. Models have started trending the storm a bit westward and closer to Florida. Even a glancing blow from this storm could be devastating for some coastal communities.

Dorian continues to move due west and the longer he does so, the harder it will be for him to pull north and away from the coast.

What a devastating day for some of these islands in the direct path of this storm! Let’s all keep these folks close to our hearts today.

I’ll have your Sunday Story out shortly.