Forecast issued Saturday, December 31, 2022

Next forecast scheduled for tomorrow by 9:00 a.m., or as needed.

Active Weather Advisories & Statements

No active advisories are in effect for our area.

MM’s Wx Vlog

Be sure and subscribe to my channel for free at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog

This Week’s Hazards (a new graphic!)

Tuesday will likely be a weather-aware day for strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall.

Five-Day Outlook 

Saturday: Showers likely & perhaps a rumble of thunder. Showers are expected to end before dark.

New Year’s Day: Partly to mostly sunny and very mild.

Monday: Warm, with clouds increasing. Slight risk for showers by afternoon/evening. Showers increase overnight.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Windy, with southerly gusts to 30 mph. Some of the rainfall could be heavy and some of the storms could be strong.

Wednesday: Chance for showers. Turning cooler.

Forecast Discussion & Concerns 

Warmer temps continue for the start of the new year, along with the arrival of another powerful storm system. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to highlight areas of western Tennessee for severe storms on Monday (seen below). That threat is now even greater for portions of Arkansas, where a significant severe weather threat exist (orange-shaded region). They are now highlighting areas just to our south for the threat on Tuesday. That threat zone is shifting north with trends.

For the SPC to outline threats three to four days in advance, they have to be very confident in that risk. Long-range forecasting is difficult and so it is possible that the threat outlook could expand northeward into our area for Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall may also be a threat. I’ll watch that closely, too.

Weather Stats for Yesterday

Weather statistics extend from midnight to midnight.

Weather statistics are available each day at https://meteorologistmark.com/weather-statistics/

On This Day 

1927- A cold front drops the temperature at Nashville a remarkable 56 degrees — from a high of 58 to 2 degrees the following day.

2018- Crossville ends the year with a total of 74.88″ of precipitation — its wettest year ever recorded.

1929 – Greenland Ranch, in Death Valley, California, went the entire year without measurable precipitation.

1744 – English astronomer James Bradley announces discovery of Earth’s nutation motion (wobble).

MM NEWS

Twister Returns to the Big Screen!

As part of severe weather awareness week, the historic Palace Theatre will be showing Twister on February 25 a 7:00 pm! Tickets are only $5 and proceeds go toward buying weather radios for folks who can’t afford them. This is thanks to a partnership between Meteorologist Mark, Creative Compassion, Crossville Fire & Rescue, and the Cumberland County Emergency Management Agency. Get your tickets today at https://ci.ovationtix.com/36136/production/1147649?performanceId=11211876 . We can’t wait to see you there for a very fun night!

If you have any questions just visit the Palace website at http://palacetheatre-crossville.com/ or email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

MM Classes for Kids

The next MM kid’s classes will take place in January and February of 2023. The next Crossville class will take place on Wednesday, January 18 at 4:30 pm. The Clarkrange class will take place Thursday, February 2 at 5:00 pm. Registration is required. The class topic will be hail! Registration can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/mm-kids/

To get on the email list about these classes just email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android app!

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

For those of you who missed it, the Crossville Chronicle asked me to write an article about the arctic blast we experienced over the Christmas holiday. It was on the front page of the paper today!

For the article, I decided to look back at the winter of 1983-1984, since this winter and that winter began with so many similarities. I hope you enjoy the article!

Christmas arctic blast similar to 1983 winter

By Mark Baldwin

Special to the Chronicle

The arctic blast that turned the Cumberland Plateau into a frozen tundra over Christmas weekend is one that will not be forgotten. Northerly winds that resulted in life-threatening wind chills and bitter cold temperatures were enough to cause many in the county to barricade themselves indoors.

Following the arctic front, temperatures stayed below the freezing mark for more than 100 hours.

The cold air and wind led to wind chills that were some of the coldest seen in decades, at times dipping to 25 degrees below zero.

The arctic air even put a strain on TVA’s power supply to the region. Many households found out the hard way that their plumbing was no match for prolonged subzero temperatures.

For some, the cold air was a fair price to pay for a rare white Christmas. Warning people of the coming bitter chill was a challenge for forecasters, especially with everyone being busy with the holidays. Plus, arctic blasts of the past are so few and far between that people often forget just how cold those times were.

Nevertheless, most people heeded the warnings and prepared as best they could.

While the 2022 Christmas weekend was bitter cold, it wasn’t one for the record books. To tie the record for the coldest Christmas, temperatures would have had to drop to 7 below zero. That record was set on Christmas morning in 1983. The official low temperature on Christmas morning this year was 5 degrees, though the temperature had dipped to 4 below zero just two mornings prior.

Since complete records began on the Plateau in 1955, temperatures have only gone below zero in December six times prior to December 2022.

With this Christmas having been similar to Christmas 1983, one can’t help but wonder what other similarities the rest of our winter may have with the winter of 1983-’84. A look at those records shows some interesting findings.

One similarity is that both winters are La Nina winters, which is the name of a climate pattern resulting from cooler-than-normal temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. While that doesn’t tell the whole story, it is interesting to note.

Following the coldest Christmas on record, a warming trend began after Christmas 1983, much like what has been seen this year. Behind every arctic blast is a noticeable warming trend, as northerly winds turn southerly and bring up warm Gulf air.

The new year of 1984 began mild, with high temperatures even breaking records by Jan. 9 as daytime highs rose into the 60s. A “January thaw,” for sure. Interestingly, an area of low pressure brought three inches of snow to the Plateau on Jan. 10, just one day after a record high was set.

An arctic blast like the one the previous Christmas then arrived on Jan. 21, with another 3 inches of snowfall and sub-zero temperatures. After a few days of this bitter cold air, a warming trend ensued to end the month on a mild note.

The third and final arctic blast of the winter arrived on Feb. 6. This arctic air mass sent temperatures below zero once again, along with another 3 inches of snow. As with the other arctic blasts, it only lasted a few days and then a warming trend began on Feb. 8. This time, the warming trend was impressive and lasted 12 days, with record highs reaching the mid-60s.

The month ended with a cold front that created temperatures just cold enough for another 2 inches of snow to fall.

Intermittent bouts of cool and mild weather in March led to about a dozen daily highs in the 30s or 40s, with all the other days being over 50 degrees. On March 15, a record high of 77 degrees was set.

Interestingly, the spring of 1984 featured the fourthworst tornado outbreak in Middle Tennessee’s history. Twisters swept across this part of the state from May 6-7. One of the tornadoes moved across the Clarkrange community of Fentress County on the Plateau, destroying a barn and downing numerous trees. However, that would be the only tornado recorded that spring on the Plateau.

While no two winters are ever alike, a meteorologist can’t help but wonder if a winter that started so similarly to this year’s might offer clues as to what’s to come. If so, two more arctic blasts can be expected, some nice warming trends, and a few light snows.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the winter continues to indicate an overall mild pattern.

No matter what an outlook says this time of year, everyone should always prepare for the worst and hope for the best. To keep up with all the weather of the Plateau, go to meteorologistmark. com.

•••

Mark Baldwin is a meteorologist in Cumberland County.

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Copyright (c)2022 Crossville Chronicle, Edition 12/30/2022

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Friday, 12/30/2022   Page .A01Copyright (c)2022 Crossville Chronicle, Edition 12/30/2022

Forecast issued Friday, December 30, 2022

Next forecast scheculed for tomorrow by 9:00 a.m., or as needed.

Active Weather Advisories & Alerts

No active advisories are in effect

Friday Funny

MM’s Wx Vlog

Be sure and subscribe to my channel for free at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog

This Week’s Hazards (a new graphic!)

Five-Day Outlook 

Friday: Clouds increasing. Windy, with wind gusts to 25 mph. Rain showers become likely overnight.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Showers are expected to end before dark.

New Year’s Day: Mostly sunny and very mild. A picture-perfect start to the new year!

Monday: Warm, with clouds increasing. Slight risk for showers by afternoon/evening. Showers increase overnight.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Windy, with gusts to 25 mph. Some of the rainfall could be heavy and some of the storms could be strong.

Forecast Discussion & Concerns 

Warmer temps continue for the start of the new year, along with the arrival of another powerful storm system. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to highlight areas of western Tennessee for severe storms on Monday (seen below). They are now highlighting areas to our south for the threat on Tuesday.

For the SPC to outline threats four and five days in advance, they have to be very confident in that risk. Long-range forecasting is difficult and so it is possible that the threat outlook could expand northeward into Tennessee for Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall may also be a threat. I’ll watch that closely, too.

Weather Stats for Yesterday

Weather statistics extend from midnight to midnight.

Weather statistics are available each day at https://meteorologistmark.com/weather-statistics/

On This Day 

2008 – Severe to extreme drought was observed across parts of the Hawaiian Islands, the western continental U.S., and parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Meanwhile, severe to exceptional drought conditions were present across southern Texas.

1924 – Astronomer Edwin Hubble formally announces existence of other galactic systems at meeting of the American Astronomical Society.

MM NEWS

Twister Returns to the Big Screen!

As part of severe weather awareness week, the historic Palace Theatre will be showing Twister on February 25 a 7:00 pm! Tickets are only $5 and proceeds go toward buying weather radios for folks who can’t afford them. This is thanks to a partnership between Meteorologist Mark, Creative Compassion, Crossville Fire & Rescue, and the Cumberland County Emergency Management Agency. Get your tickets today at https://ci.ovationtix.com/36136/production/1147649?performanceId=11211876 . We can’t wait to see you there for a very fun night!

If you have any questions just visit the Palace website at http://palacetheatre-crossville.com/ or email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

MM Classes for Kids

The next MM kid’s classes will take place in January and February of 2023. The next Crossville class will take place on Wednesday, January 18 at 4:30 pm. The Clarkrange class will take place Thursday, February 2 at 5:00 pm. Registration is required. The class topic will be hail! Registration can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/mm-kids/

To get on the email list about these classes just email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android app!

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Forecast issued Thursday, December 29, 2022

Next forecast scheculed for tomorrow by 9:00 a.m., or as needed.

Weather Advisories

No active advisories are in effect

MM’s Wx Vlog

Be sure and subscribe to my channel for free at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog

This Week’s Hazards (a new graphic!)

Five-Day Outlook 

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Windy, with wind gusts to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a chance for showers by afternoon/evening. Windy, with wind gusts to 20 mph. Rain showers become likely overnight.

New Year’s Eve: Showers likely. Showers should dcerease in coverage after dark.

New Year’s Day: Mostly sunny and very mild. A picture-perfect start to the new year!

Monday: Warm, with clouds increasing. Showers possible by afternoon/evening. Rain and storms likely overnight.

Forecast Discussion & Concerns 

Milder temps will bring rain chances back into the forecast by Friday afternoon, though the bulk of the rain is expected to hold off until Friday night and Saturday. Rumbles of thunder are possible but severe storms are not expected.

Warmer temps continue for the start of the new year, along with the arrival of another powerful storm system. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight areas of western Tennessee for severe storms on Monday (seen below). I’ll be tracking that threat eastward by that evening. Right now, it still isn’t clear how intense those storms will be when they reach us, though initial thoughts point to a weakening line of storms moving our way overnight. I’ll be monitoring closely.

Heavy rainfall may also be a threat. I’ll watch that closely, too.

Weather Stats for Yesterday

Weather statistics extend from midnight to midnight.

Weather statistics are available each day at https://meteorologistmark.com/weather-statistics/

On This Day 

1969 – Crossville’s rainfall total of 3.46″ contributes to a 3-day total of 7.60″.

1968 – The photo below was the view of the rising Earth that greeted the Apollo 8 astronauts as they came from behind the moon after the lunar orbit insertion burn. The photo is displayed here in its original orientation, though it is more commonly viewed with the lunar surface at the bottom of the photo. Earth is about five degrees left of the horizon in the photo. The unnamed surface features on the left are near the eastern limb of the Moon as viewed from Earth. The lunar horizon is approximately 110 miles from the spacecraft.

MM NEWS

MM Classes for Kids

The next MM kid’s classes will take place in January and February of 2023. The next Crossville class will take place on Wednesday, January 18 at 4:30 pm. The Clarkrange class will take place Thursday, February 2 at 5:00 pm. Registration is required. The class topic will be hail! Registration can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/mm-kids/

To get on the email list about these classes just email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android app.

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!