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MM’s Tues Night Special Wx Update

Special forecast issued Tuesday, January 31, 2023

**Watch for patchy dense fog tonight that could dramatically reduce visibility

**Total ice accumulation will range from 1/10 to 2/10 of an inch. The higher ice totals are expected north of Crossville, with the lower totals being found farther south

**All roads could become very hazardous overnight and into Wednesday morning. Even a little bit of ice can cause big travel troubles.

**Ice storm conditions occur at 1/4 inch (and greater) of ice. Those amounts are not expected on the plateau, though some of you in Fentress County may see some isolated locations that approach that mark.

**It continues to look like we will get a very cold rain Wednesday night, but I’ll monitor that very closely. I’m always nervous forecasting rain and 33 degrees. Stay tuned. That could end as some snow shower activity Thursday night.

Current Hazards

Winter weather advisories extend across Middle TN. The dark purple in West TN is for ice storm warnings there.

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Forecast

Confidence in amounts of ice that would put us close to ice storm criteria is low. In fact, this graphic is more for you folks in Fentress County, as you may approach that 1/4 inch mark in isolated locations.

Timing

This will vary by a degree or two for some of you. Those of you in Fentress could be a bit colder, while those of us in Cumberland could be a bit warmer.

Please note that this is a general timeline for the plateau. Be flexible by about an hour or two.

Impact Maps

All of us on the plateau are risk for freezing rain tonight into early Wednesday morning.

The highest impacts from ice will likely be north of the red line that I’ve drawn below.

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Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

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Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

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MM’s Tues Wx Forecast

Forecast issued Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Special Note

A winter weather adivisory is in effect from 6:00 pm tonight to 11:00 a.m. Wednesday. Freezing rain may not begin until closer to midnight, but the NWS is right to err on the side of caution and begin the advisory at 6:00 pm. The main threat from ice will be to roads. Travel troubles are likely areawide Wednesday morning. Please stay tuned for updates.

Ice accumulation is expected to range from 1/10 (0.10) of an inch to 2/10 (0.2) of an inch across the area, with the higher amounts found across northern Cumberland County and Fentress County. The minimal criteria for ice storm conditions is 0.25 inches of ice. While we are not expected to reach that criteria, under the “worst case scenario” some isolated locations (especially across northern Fentress County) could get close to meeting that minimal criteria.

Wednesday night will be a close call, with temps flirting with the freezing mark as rain falls. Stay tuned for updates to that forecast, just in case temps trend just a bit colder.

Weather-Aware Times

Five-Day Outlook 

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Radar Model

This radar model runs from 9:00 a.m. this morning to 9:00 a.m. Wednesday morning. The trend is for rain to transition to freezing rain overnight. Amounts will be light, but enough to cause travel troubles.

Weather Summary

Today, rain chances increase and, as temps fall after sunset, the rain will begin mixing with and changing to light freezing rain and sleet across the area. This wintry precip will lead to the potential for hazardous roads across the area tonight and Wednesday morning. Total ice accumulations are expected to stay in the tenth to two tenths range. This is not enough to qualify for ice storm conditions, though isolated locations, especially in Fentress County, could get close to reaching the 1/4 inch criteria for minimal ice storm conditions. If temps trend colder and moisture trends upward, more ice could accumulate.

The emphasis continues to be on the impacts to roadways. The ice that accumulates tonight is not expected to be enough to cause disruptions to the power grid or lead to tree damage.

Rain continues Wednesday night but temps should stay above freezing, though it will be a close call. That rain moves out on Thursday but could end as some snow flurries or snow showers Thursday night.

Stay tuned for forecast updates.

Hourly Temp & Precip Forecast

From 9:00 a.m. this morning to 7:00 a.m. Wednesday morning.

Road Conditions

Keep in mind that TDOT keeps up with road conditions at https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic?features=incident,traffic

Chance For A Snow Day

Forecast Rainfall

Rainfall totals for the next five days. Our area should see around an inch of total additional rainfall in this period.

Weather Statistics

For the period of midnight to midnight.

On This Day

1951- Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83″. This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville’s history.

1911 – Tamarack, California, was without snow the first eight days of the month, but by the end of January had been buried under 390 inches of snow, a record monthly total for the U.S.

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Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android app!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Proud to offer severe weather support for City Fire and other emergency services!
Download today!

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

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MM’s Special Mon Night Forecast Update

Special forecast issued Sunday, January 29, 2023

Special Note

**Be safe if you’re out and about tonight. Patchy dense fog is reducing visibilities. At times, visibilities in some spots drops to near zero.**

Rain and drizzle is expected to stay all liquid overnight and into the morning. The only exception might by for areas north of Jamestown and Livingston that could see some isolated instances of freezing rain in colder locations.

Freezing rain and drizzle will threaten the whole area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temps should warm above freezing by 10:00 a.m. or so on Wednesday. Ice amounts are expected to stay at or under one tenth of an inch. This much ice will not cause widespread power outages or damage to trees, but it could certainly make roads very hazardous, especially on bridges and overpasses.

The NWS Nashville plans to issue a winter weather advisory for the plateau for late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Current Hazards

Be careful with dense fog tonight across the area.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for portions of Middle TN for freezing rain tonight and tomorrow morning. Those advisories are west and north of the plateau. Ice storm warnings are in effect for portions of West TN. If you travel westward tomorrow, be sure and check the forecast!

Weather-Aware Times

The risk for freezing rain is greatest late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Chance For A Snow Day

The chance for a snow day has now increased to 70%, owing to the risk for freezing rain and drizzle Wednesday morning.

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Impact Maps

**My thoughts are unchanged for this map**

This map shows the worst-case scenario for Tuesday morning ice that could cause travel troubles. The freezing line is shown in red. Anyone north of that line could be at risk for some slick spots on area roads, especially in colder spots. Most icing will occur north of the Kentucky border of the Cumberland Plateau. Anyone with travel plans to Nashville should be advised that travel troubles will likely await you there.

**My thoughts are unchanged for this map, as well.**

All of us on the plateau are risk for freezing rain last Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The 32-degree line drifts much farther south, putting more of us at risk for hazardous roads. The timeframe for the greatest risk from ice is looking like midnight Tuesday to around 10:00 a.m. Wednesday. Anyone with travel that takes you west on Interstate 40 should be advised that travel could be treacherous all along I-40 from Cumberland County westward.

It is possible that the 32-degree line will be a bit farther south than what is shown. That scenario is much more likely than the 32-degree line drifting farther north.

Be sure to Follow the blog to get updates sent to your inbox and/or download the free Android app!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Proud to offer severe weather support for City Fire and other emergency services!
Download today!

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.