Meteorologist Mark

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall this morning at about 2:00 this morning on the TX/LA border. The tropical storm is now moving northward at about 12 mph. A front will interact with Cindy and really scoot her along. This same front, along with the interaction with land, will also shear Cindy apart, reducing her to a depression by later today. The affects of Cindy will be felt here today with numerous showers and t-showers, some of which could produce heavy downpours. We should get a break this evening as some drier air works its way in here, before the center of the remnants of Cindy, along with the cold front, make their way through the area on Friday. It is then that we could see some strong to severe t-storms, some of which could produce weak, short-lived tornadoes. These weak tornadoes are common with tropical systems, a result of all the spin associated with these lows. Imagine a great big spin (Cindy) producing much smaller spins (tornadoes). The rainfall will be our greatest impact, by far, with up to 2″ of rain falling and isolated amounts of up to 3-4″. Gusty winds will also be around, though they shouldn’t be enough to cause problems.

As for Saturday and Sunday? I think they both look alright at this point. Cindy is moving a bit faster than expected and the cold front will ensure that she doesn’t stall out or slow down. This means that she should continue to progress and by Saturday morning should be east of us, which will bring in northerly, less humid breezes. At best, we may see a shower Saturday morning. It’ll be nice to be able to dry out after all the rain that’s coming! Sunday looks fantastic as well.

Waterspouts (tornadoes over water) coming ashore near Santa Rosa Island, Florida Wednesday afternoon as the outer bands of Cindy made their way onshore. Wow!

 

The big weather headline today is Tropical Story Cindy. The storm now has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is drifting slowly northwest at 7 mph. The storm should make landfall on the Louisiana-Texas border later tonight. The storm will then move northward and get shoved to the northeast by a weak cold front. That will take the center of the storm right over the top of Middle TN on Friday and Friday night. Gusty winds and very heavy rainfall are likely. All areas should see close to 2″ of rain, with isolated areas seeing up to 4″ of rain. With the center of the storm passing so close to us, we can’t rule out an isolated, weak tornado Friday night.

For today, we’ll see increasing clouds from Tropical Storm Cindy. We’ll also see humidity increasing as the storm moves a very tropical airmass into our neck of the woods. I think we’ll stay dry today and tonight, with showers increasing through the day on Thursday. Rain should be light through the day and night Thursday. By Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Cindy gets much closer and winds will increase to around 30 mph. Rainfall will be heavy at times both Friday and Friday night. On Saturday, the system begins pulling to the east of us and we should start to gradually dry out. Sunday looks nice, with lower humidity and highs near 80.  So, if you’re yard needs mowing you better mow it today! It’ll be a while before you get to do that again.

Let me know if you have any questions!

 

We continue to monitor the tropics, with a particular interest in what is happening in the Gulf of Mexico. The system has now made it’s way to the central Gulf and is already producing heavy rain along the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is well away from the center of the storm. The system remained disorganized overnight and has yet to be named. If named, the storm will be Cindy. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a  more organized tropical storm, the system will produce life-threatening floods along coastal areas, as well as wind gusts to 50 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday night somewhere between Houston and New Orleans. The system will then move north and get caught up and steered by a cold front, which will likely shove all that moisture our way. We could get some decent rains from this system, with some models predicting 2-4″ for us. We’ll be working out the specifics of that, though, over the next 24 hours or so.

Meanwhile, today and tomorrow will be beautiful! Highs will be around 80, with light breezes.  You’ll notice some beautiful high, thin clouds moving over. Those are actually from the tropical system in the Gulf! These clouds usually make for some gorgeous sunsets and just beautiful skies all the way around. The humidity picks up in earnest on Wednesday, setting the stage for tropical rain showers and storms to develop on Thursday. Thursday-Saturday look quite wet at this point, with things possibly drying out on Sunday.

Let me know if you have questions! Here is the map of the projected path as of this morning. With this track, we could get some decent rainfall, for sure.

This is the picture I took this morning out the office window, looking south over downtown Crossville. Those beautiful tropical clouds….

We’ve been fortunate to have avoided the heaviest rains here on the plateau over the past 24 hours. Some parts of Middle TN have picked up close to 4 inches of rain. A heavy t-storm in northern Cumberland County dropped up to 1/2 inch of rain on those folks Sunday afternoon. We still have a chance for showers and a storm today, as the cold front slowly makes it way across the region. By evening, we should be left with just a spotty shower. Tonight, we drop into the upper 50s under clearing skies. Those clearing skies could lead to some fog Tuesday morning, so be aware of that. On Tuesday, those clear skies will allow us to warm to near 80 degrees with lower humidity! That nice weather repeats for Wednesday. By Thursday, the humidity begins moving back in, leading to an isolated afternoon/evening t-storm.

Right now, the Thursday night-Saturday time period is especially tricky to predict. We have a tropical system that is developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico today and that will track northward as we go through the week. By the second half of this week, we could be looking at some substantial rainfall if that system tracks over us, as some models are suggesting.  We do have to be mindful of tropical systems, even in June. On this date in 1972, hurricane Agnes made landfall in Florida and eventually swept up the entire eastern seaboard. Total damages were higher from this one storm than from all the storms over the previous six years combined. This included damages from Camille that hit the Mississippi Coast as a cat 5 in 1969! I’ll keep an eye on all of it and you let me know if you have any questions!