As of this morning, Tropical Depression Harvey is centered over northern Louisiana and slowly moving north-northeast. On this track, the remnants of Harvey will be near Nashville by Friday morning. As we go through today, expect showers and isolated t-storms to develop. Winds will also begin picking up. By tonight, we should be seeing sustained winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts to around 30-40 mph. There remains a tornado threat, though it is quite low. The best chance for severe weather will be just to our southwest, over southern Middle TN, but that’s too close for comfort. I’ll keep an eye on it. Yesterday, it looked like the tornado threat would be the highest this afternoon, but it now looks like that threat will remain elevated from this afternoon through the overnight and into Friday morning. Everything begins to really wind down by Friday night. Expect lingering showers through the first half of the day Saturday, followed by a pleasant evening. I can’t imagine how crowded the Fair will be Saturday night, especially since the weather will be so much better by then.
Sunday and Monday look nice. If you have any outdoor plans for the Labor Day weekend, I’d save them for Sunday and Monday. Highs each day will be in the 70s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. Might not be a bad idea to get in one last camping trip before summer unofficially ends?
By Tuesday of next week a strong cold front moves in and may bring some storms. But the big headline with this front is the colder air behind it. We will likely see overnight lows next week drop into the 40s! Daytime highs by Wednesday and Thursday will likely stay in the 60s.
In other weather news, we continue to monitor the tropics. There are still indications that another system will develop in the Gulf this weekend but it’s hard to say who it will affect or if it will even develop into a storm or be a depression. It should stay in the western Gulf through Labor Day. The concern is that, regardless of what it develops into, it could bring more rainfall to Texas and Louisiana, which is the last thing those folks need right now. Another system, Tropical Storm Irma, is out in the Atlantic and it is certainly one to watch. Irma is expected to become a major hurricane by Labor Day as it treks across the Atlantic and toward the Caribbean. Models this morning paint a frightening scenario of Irma eventually making it toward the Carolina coast as a cat 5 hurricane by September 10. That’s a long way off and models will change. I’ll keep you posted.
I’ll keep an eye on today’s weather and let you know if/when any watches or warnings are issued. The good news is that it looks like our expected rainfall totals will be in the 1-2″ category for the plateau, so no major flooding issues are anticipated at this time.
Here is a weatherTAP map of the current watches and severe weather risk areas: