We’re dodging some rain showers this morning, and we’ll continue to do so through the day. We may even hear some rumbles of thunder. Our low temp last night was 63 degrees here in Crossville, which is about 15 degrees warmer than our high temp should be! As I came into work there was a rainbow over Crossville. Tomorrow should be a drier day than today and we should see some peaks of the sun. That sun, along with southerly breezes, will take us into the mid 70s. A potent cold front moves in Saturday night, with strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours of rain. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas to our west for the risk of severe weather Saturday evening and night. Temps and rain chances fall behind that front, but we’ll still be slightly above seasonal normals for temps.
Severe weather outlook for Saturday evening. The Cumberland Plateau is in the marginal risk for severe weather, as the line of strong to severe storms is expected to weaken as it approaches our area. I will keep an eye on this.
Our weather is tame compared to what is happening out west of us this morning! The slow-moving cold front has made its way through northern Texas and that has dropped temps below freezing. However, warm and moist air is trying to stream up and over that arctic air and that is causing quite the mess! They have the risk of freezing rain, along with thunderstorms, some of which could become severe. In fact, a severe t-storm warning was just issued for a county near Wichita Falls, where they are below freezing but with a thunderstorm producing one-inch hail and nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning. That’s some wild Texas weather, folks!
Speaking of wild weather, our weather may get a little rowdy around here Saturday night. We can’t say we haven’t seen this coming. It’s February 22 and it feels like it’s May outside. A cold front will move in during the evening Saturday and will be accompanied by a potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms. The good news for us is that it will arrive in the overnight hours, when the atmosphere is coolest and most stable. Therefore, we’re not looking for too many problems around here, though we will certainly get some heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning. I’ll keep an eye on this and make sure our severe weather chances don’t increase.
The severe threat is much higher for West Tennessee and places south and west of there. While the Storm Prediction Center has placed them in the slight risk, they are discussing upgrading that threat in later outlooks, depending on what models show in today’s model runs.
At this point, I’m looking for a line of strong storms to cross the plateau late Saturday night, with damaging straight-line winds being our greatest threat. We are in a very warm and moist environment and have been for a while now, so we definitely have the ingredients for severe weather here at the surface. In order to get organized, potent severe weather you need the ingredients here at the surface AND way up above our heads where the clouds are. Right now, it doesn’t look like things up there are going to be ideal for organized severe weather but, should that change, our severe threat will increase.
I’m still keeping track of February thunder and seeing if that corresponds with frost on that day in May, as folklore suggests. So far I have us getting frost on May 10 and 17th, since we had thunder on those two dates in February. I did see a rainbow yesterday and today but I don’t know of any folklore concerning rainbows in February (ha!). I’ll keep an eye on May 21 and 22 and see what happens. I may just start my own folklore with that! haha
So, we can get just about anything this time of year, right? Do you remember what you were doing three years ago today?……..
Does this ring a bell?
The peak of the ice storm occurred on February 21st, but folks were dealing with an absolute mess in these days that followed. I was teaching at Mississippi State and I missed out on all the fun (ha), but I’ll never forget calling home and hearing the distress in my family’s voice. I came home a couple weeks later for spring break and will never forget the devastation I saw as I drove across the county. The governor said it best when he said it looked like an EF-2 tornado had hit the whole county.
Let’s be grateful for the weather we have. Heaven knows it could be a lot worse, folks!
You all have a great day and I’ll keep an eye on that storm potential for Saturday night.