Month: May 2018

SUMMARY

Storms are already getting started out there this morning. Some of these have already been strong and that threat will continue as we go through the day. The greatest risk for severe storms will come this evening, as a complex of storms drops in on us out of Kentucky. Yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center scaled back the risk of severe storms to only include areas mainly north of I-40. As I feared they would do, they have now dropped that risk back down to include all of the Cumberland Plateau.  As you can see, the risk for tornadoes is low, but the threat of damaging winds and hail will be the threat we face, as well as flash flooding and frequent lightning.

You’ll notice the orange shading on this threat map that extends into Kentucky. That is the greatest risk of severe weather for today. That activity is what I’ll be watching as it drops our way. We could see some rather potent storms out of this, folks, so stay tuned. Keep in mind that straight-line winds can be as destructive as weak tornadoes.

Current radar at 8:00 a.m., showing showers and storms already firing off and moving east. This radar will be a lot more colorful later on today! A special weather statement was just issued for the storm near Cookeville. Half-inch hail and 30 mph winds are expected with that storm as it slides east. I’m also seeing frequent lightning with this storm.

As we go into our Friday, we’ll see another threat for strong storms as a weak cold front drops in on us. This will lead to scattered showers and storms throughout the day. The Storm Prediction has placed most of the plateau in the marginal risk for severe storms for Friday. So, the threat isn’t as great as today’s,  but it’s something I’ll have to watch for you.

Then, Saturday is looking pretty good. We can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm, especially in the afternoon/evening, but the bulk of the day is looking good. Remember that potential for overnight storms I said I would have to watch? I think I mentioned this on Tuesday. Well, now the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of West TN and some of Middle TN in the threat for severe weather for Saturday evening/night. The risk does not technically extend as far east as the plateau, but it comes awfully close. The models have trended westward with these storms but if that should change, we could be dealing with some strong/severe storms Saturday night. Those of you in Putnam and White counties have the greatest threat at this point. I’ll keep watching this. Right now, it looks like the plateau may dodge a bullet on this one, but it’s too close for comfort.

Below is the outlook for severe storms for Saturday evening/night, as a complex of storms drops southeast out of Missouri. The threat is to our west at this time, but the westernmost counties of the plateau may be included in later severe wx outlooks.

Whew! There’s a lot going on these days! If we look farther ahead into Sunday it looks like we’ll be dealing with more scattered showers and storms before finally clearing out for next week. I’ll get more specific with Sunday’s forecast after we get through these storms  today.

DISCUSSION

I’ll try not to say much here, as there is already so much in the summary above. I will mention briefly that we had a line of storms make their way toward the plateau yesterday evening. I jumped on Facebook to give everyone a heads up. However, as the storms moved closer to the plateau they just disintegrated. It’s like they got a glimpse of the plateau and just fell apart. That happens sometimes! You just never know if this plateau is going to strengthen the storms or weaken the storms.

I’ll be here monitoring today’s threat of severe weather. And I’ll be online tonight until the threat has passed. For those of you on TapTalk, you can find me at https://meteorologistmark.com/ or on Facebook after hours.

You all have a great day!

The Storm Prediction Center has updated the storm threat for Thursday and there is some good and bad news. The good news is that the threat has shifted a bit north. This means the main threat may be across the northern plateau and not ALL of the plateau. The bad news is that the threat is increasing and an upgrade to an enhanced risk (level 3) from slight risk (level 2) is looking more likely.

Although the risk has been shifted northward, that risk still includes those of us north of I-40 and no one south of I-40 can let their guard down. Tomorrow, that main threat could shift back to the south.

Keep in mind that I will be online until the threat has passed, answering any questions and concerns!

Below is the latest threat map put out by the National Weather Service Nashville.

Meanwhile, we have some storms that will be entering Middle TN shortly from the west ( at 3:00 pm) and those will be moving our way as the evening progresses. Our atmosphere should continue to support these storms into the evening. They are not severe, but they certainly have lightning and heavy downpours.

You all have a great evening and I’ll keep you posted on Thursday’s storm threat!

SUMMARY

Alberto is spinning off to the north this morning, but he has left behind a lot of warm, humid and unsettled air. Alberto developed in the Caribbean and it has displaced a Caribbean airmass on us. This is providing plenty of fuel for showers and thunderstorms. As the heat of the day increases, that will only add to the instability. Therefore, expect off-and-on showers and storms to be with us all day long and into the evening.

The graphic below shows “Alberto” spinning off to the north, while leaving behind a very tropical, unstable airmass.

By tomorrow, we will have a disturbance that will be sliding in from the west. This will create favorable conditions up in the atmosphere for storms, while taking advantage of this abundant heat and humidity here at the surface. The atmosphere is the engine that runs the storms, but the fuel is found here at the surface. Tomorrow, these two will be running hand in hand and we may have some potent storms on our hands. The main threat looks to come tomorrow evening, with large hail and damaging straight-line winds being the main threats. At this time, the tornado threat looks really low.

This is the threat map put out by the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday. The slight risk for severe storms extends to the plateau. Of course, I will be here watching it all and I won’t go offline until the threat has completely passed. For those of you reading this on TapTalk, you can catch me at https://meteorologistmark.com/ and on Facebook after hours.

On Friday, a weak cold front will drop in and that will kick of scattered showers and storms. Some of these storms could be strong, though it looks like we will lack the atmospheric support for widespread severe weather.

Any showers or storms that develop over the next several days will be capable of producing torrential downpours of rain and isolated flash flooding.

Saturday looks good, though we certainly can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm. Later in the night, we’ll have a disturbance rolling in here and I’ll have to keep an eye on that for some strong storms. Models this morning are wanting to delay that complex of rain until Sunday morning. I’ll keep watching it. Sunday’s forecast depends on how quickly this disturbance moves out. Stay tuned.

DISCUSSION

The main feature this forecast period is the complex of storms that will threaten us from the west tomorrow. It looks like storms will fire off in Missouri tomorrow morning and then organize and move southeast. They will have plenty of fuel to work with (heat and humidity) and upper-level atmospheric support should be sufficient to produce widespread showers and storms, some of which will be severe. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some impressive hail reports over portions of western Kentucky tomorrow.

Our main threat will likely be straight-line winds from these storms. If they are weakening when they reach us, that will really help us out! If they’re not weakening when they reach us we could be looking at some damaging winds.

The next time period of interest may come late Saturday night. I’m not as confident today as I was yesterday in this complex of storms, but I’ll see what model runs today look like before completely dismissing the possibility of late-night storms for Saturday. As I mentioned in the summary above, models are trending toward bringing in the showers and storms Sunday morning. Our atmosphere would be much more stable by then, and that would limit severe potential. I’ll definitely keep an eye on this and let you know how this evolves.

Yesterday, the severe weather was well to our west on the Southern Plains. My buddy Dakota Maynard was out chasing in Oklahoma and sent me this pic he took of a rain-wrapped tornado. If you look close enough (and just to the left of the tree), you can see it behind the rain. What a pic! If that doesn’t make you want to go storm chasing, nothing will…..  Look at that sky! And that wide-open space…..  (insert chase fever).

Speaking of tornadoes, today is the anniversary of the first recorded tornado in Tennessee. I wrote an article for the Fentress Courier about and I’ll share it with you all right here. I’ve shared it with you before, but I’ll share it again since today is the anniversary of that.

You all have a great day!

The First Tornado

The first documented Tennessee tornado was recorded 188 years ago this spring. The tornado hit the city of Charlotte, located just west of Nashville, on May 30, 1830.

Tennessee’s history with tornadoes got off to a rough start with this one. The city of Charlotte was forever changed and weather on this May day changed Tennessee history.

The first courthouse to be built in Tennessee was built in Charlotte in 1810. The original courthouse was built from logs, but just a few years later the log structure was replaced with a two-story brick one, a symbol of the thriving local economy.

Twenty years later, the courthouse would find itself right in the path of a very destructive tornado. By the time the storm had moved on, nearly every building in Charlotte was in ruin, including the courthouse.

In fact, the roof of the courthouse was found 13 miles away! Every public record for the county lay across the countryside, and most of the courthouse’s documents were never recovered. Books that were in the courthouse were found for miles away.

This was not the only destructive tornado in this event. Shelbyville was also hit very hard by a separate violent tornado and the city was described in newspapers as being “a heap of ruins.” Nearly every home, business, and church was destroyed in the center of Shelbyville. A book from the town was found seven miles away.

In the days following the Charlotte storm, the city ordered the courthouse to be rebuilt and by October 1830, a new brick courthouse was standing tall in Charlotte. The courthouse is still in operation today, making it the oldest operating courthouse in the state of Tennessee.

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center just released a statement saying that, while we are in the perfect spot to get tornadoes from Alberto, the dynamics associated with the weakening system appear too weak to tap into any localized rotation. Never the less, there remains a very slim chance for a brief spin-up. A tornado watch will not be issued.

We’ve had some breaks in the clouds this afternoon that made for a beautiful lunch-time sky. The showers are already back, however, and they will be with us for the next few days.

I snapped the pic below during lunch.

I will briefly mention that the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area near us for Thursday for severe storms. Those may slip down here out of Kentucky Thursday evening/night. I’ll keep an eye on that. I’ll also continue to monitor the threat for strong/severe storms that may slip down on us out of Kentucky Saturday night as well. There’s  a lot to watch these days, but I’ll be right here doing just that! Please let me know if you have any questions or comments!