Severe Storms Possible Today

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MAIN THREATS

This Afternoon/Evening: Severe T-storms

Sunday Morning: Strong Storms

Sunday Afternoon/Evening: Strong Storms (possibly severe)

SUMMARY

I’ll be keeping an eye on the radar today, as we are now in the slight risk for severe storms. We were upgraded from marginal risk to slight risk in this morning’s outlook, issued by the Storm Prediction Center. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds, though a very isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. You can also expect torrential downpours of rain and frequent lightning with any storm that develops today. The main threat will come after noon today.

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Saturday continues to look like a drier day, though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out. It now looks like the complex of storms that I’ve been talking about for several days will not get here until the early hours of Sunday. Some of those storms could be strong, but the time of day is going to really help us out. Those early morning hours are our most stable time of the day. New storms will likely fire off Sunday afternoon, and those will also have the potential to become quite strong.

Sunday afternoon’s storms will depend on two things. First, how long will Sunday morning’s storms hang around? If they clear out early that means we’ll get more sunshine, which will destabilize the atmosphere. So, the second factor will be how much sunshine we get.  And, there’s always the chance that the complex of storms will run out of steam before it gets here. Should that happen, I’ll have to monitor how close they got to us before they dissipated. That will determine how far east leftover outflow boundaries get. Those boundaries can easily act as a focus for new storms to develop upon Sunday afternoon. In that scenario, we might even have some severe storms Sunday afternoon. I’ll keep an eye on all of this, of course. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has us in the marginal risk for severe storms for Sunday.

After Sunday, we return to a more summer-like pattern, with only isolated afternoon/Evening showers or storms.

DISCUSSION

This will be a rather active day across the country, so it will be anything but boring! The worst of the severe weather today is expected across eastern Colorado and down into Oklahoma. That’s a bit unusual for this time of year, but not unheard of. I’ll have to watch how those storms evolve today because that will be related our threat Sunday morning and even Sunday afternoon.

This is a very unsettled pattern but there is an end in sight. Next week is looking much drier but we may be on the cusp of  a big heat wave, folks. I’ll have to monitor that. Let’s hope we get plenty of rain the next few days because after this I’m not sure we’ll have good rain chances again for a while. Some models are hinting at highs around 100 for parts of the South by the end of next week. But, that’s getting close to the Fourth of July holiday and you know what they say, “It’s hotter than the Fourth of July!” ha

Let’s hope models trend cooler with that extended forecast.

Looking at the records this morning. On this day in 1988, Nashville hit 100 degrees and that began a record heat wave. For six straight days Nashville hit 100 or better for an afternoon high. Some of you may remember that summer? It was so hot and dry that a lot of our trees at home died. It took several of our trees a few years to die from the stress of that heat and drought.

Another record I found is from the great state of Missouri. At Holt, a storm dropped 12 inches of rain in only 42 minutes on this day in 1947! Geez! And I thought we had gully washers down here! That rainfall record became a world rainfall record until it was tied on January 24, 1956. That was when Kilauea Sugar Plantation in Hawaii received 38 inches of rain in 24 hours!

Finally, on this day in 1989 Rapid City, South Dakota set a record low of 39 degrees. Oh, you think that’s interesting? How about the fact that they had a record high of 102 just two earlier on the 20th! That is an insane 63 degree temperature drop!

Hopefully, our weather won’t get too crazy today. I’ll be here watching it all, of course. Be sure to follow on Facebook for the most up-to-date information.

You all have a great day and stay weather aware!

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