It’s fall!

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Main threats

No threats in sight.

Summary

This fall-like weather is here to stay a while, folks. Temps will warm up a bit Sunday and Monday ahead of our next storm system, but even then temps stay reasonable for this time of year; gone are the 80s! We will risk a shower tonight as a weakening disturbance slips to our north. With overnight lows around 40, they will be the coldest showers we’ve seen in months.

The next significant storm system moves in Saturday night, bringing with it the start of a wet pattern that will take us right on through Tuesday. I don’t see anything particularly heavy coming, though, just light to moderate showers all about.

Tropics

Michael has moved back over the ocean waters of the Atlantic and  is now swirling out to sea. He is still packing winds of 65 mph and never lost tropical storm status as he crossed the Southeast. He is due to be near Spain by Monday morning. Adios, Michael.

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We still have Leslie and Nadine. Leslie continues to just spin about the Atlantic and will likely go down in history as the longest surviving tropical system on record. Luckily, she does not like land and will steer clear of it at all costs. Notice how she wants to cycle around and try to come back! How weird would it be if she ends up coming back across the Atlantic? 😮

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Nadine is still out there, too, but she is expected to dissipate over the weakened in the southern Atlantic. And the system in the Caribbean that was being watched is showing very poor signs of development this morning. It now looks like it will just slide into Central America as a depression, at best.

Records

Today is a very historical day in Middle Tennessee weather history. On this day in 1811 the Midstate recorded its first official tornado! The twister struck the city of Nashville at around 8:00 o’clock that evening. A nearly-finished brick three-story house was destroyed. Damage estimates ran up to $10,000. That was a lot of money in 1811.

For our next record, it was way too cold for tornadoes! On this day in 2000, a cold snap brought some very cold weather to Tennessee. Here in Crossville we dropped to 32 degrees for our morning low. This was the fourth daily record low temperature in the past five days. October of 2000 was quite chilly!

News

The death toll from Michael has now risen to 11, with five of those coming from Virginia (drownings). I worry the death toll will go much higher but let’s sure hope not.

The odd thing about hurricanes is that the worst of the worst destruction is right where the eye makes landfall. The gradient of destruction is always mind-boggling away from that location. You can have completely wiped out beaches and just 30 miles away have some homes with a few missing shingles. No two storms are alike, however, and each has different damage signatures.

These images are from Mexico Beach, where Michael made landfall. The top image is what the view would have looked like Sunday. The bottom one is what the beach looks like now. That’s what storm surge will do, folks. Well, that and 155 mph winds. Keep in mind that the same volume of water weighs 800 times more than that same volume of air. It’s always the water, never the wind, that does the most damage and takes the most lives.

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Here’s another image.

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And lastly. If I had to title this image it would be called Storm Surge.

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You all be sure and have a good Friday. This is that one day of the week when it’s not too hard to have a good one, right?

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