Winter is knocking on our door

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Main Threats

Friday and Saturday night: The first widespread, hard freeze of the season.

Monday night: Wintry precip?

Summary

The clouds are hanging around today but we may actually see a little sun from time to time. A bit drier air is in place than was expected, causing the cloud cover to be a bit more broken. The drier, more stable air (like yesterday) will make it hard for any precip to make it to the ground. The cool thing is that whenever moisture aloft runs over the top of a stable surface layer, it can make for some cool looking clouds! (pics below)

By tonight, all layers of our atmosphere should moisten up and rain will settle in. Rain will really pick up by Friday morning as a strong cold front moves in. Thankfully, this front will only produce rain (perhaps a rumble of thunder) and not any severe weather (whew…right?). Temps will start dropping as soon as the front moves through around noon. You’ll know it when that front gets across the plateau! Lows Friday night will drop to at least 25 degrees. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some folks drop closer to 23 or so.

I just noticed that West TN has just been placed under a freeze watch for Friday night. The NWS says for them to expect lows in the 24-32 degree range (and that’s for West TN).

Saturday looks sunny and cold. Dress appropriately if you’re headed out to any Veteran’s Day parades. Thankfully, the wind shouldn’t be blowing much at all. That always makes a big difference.

By Sunday, our eyes will be looking west to our next big weather maker. This system will spread a cold rain our way on Monday. By Monday night, colder air begins to move back in and Monday’s rain may turn to Monday night snow. Right now, accumulation (if any) looks light but stay tuned. We’re still several days out and things can change (as you know).

Discussion

Models and forecast guidance are starting to come into agreement that Monday night’s winter weather event will be a disappointment to snow lovers. As is so often the case around here, the best moisture seems to be out of here before the coldest air arrives. We have plenty of moisture coming with this system, and we have plenty of cold air coming with this system, but the million dollar question is will they meet up in time to give us any measurable snow? That remains to be seen.

I will say this…one has to wonder what kind of winter we are in store for when we’re already flirting with snow before the middle of November? Also, for us snow lovers, I am very confident that we will see snowflakes flying around before that system is completely done with us. It may be some light snow, it may be a snow shower, or it may be just flurries, but I would be very surprised if we don’t see a snow flake out of that system.

Next week’s system is an arctic front and, yes, it’s a bit early for that kind of air to be coming in here. You will feel the chill of winter come Tuesday. The good news is that it looks like we may be warming back up by Thursday. November snow is like March snow; no matter what kind of snow you get it won’t be here long (unlike Jan-Feb snows that can lay around for a week or more).

I’ll keep an eye on it. It’s WAY to far off to tell for sure but I’m already seeing another system for Thanksgiving (give or take a day) that may bring us another chance for some snow flakes.

Is it me or did Winter seem to just move in awfully fast?

Records

On this day in 1991, Knoxville measured 0.2 inches of snow, which is the earliest measurable snowfall on record for them.

On this day in 1870 the first storm warning was issued by the U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service. This was part of an early start of our modern day National Weather Service. The warning was issued for the Great Lakes. Professor Increase A. Lapham thought that deadly storm systems for the Great Lakes could be warned for via telegraphed weather observations. A bill was introduced and signed into law to establish a national telegraphic weather service. The Signal Corps began taking observations on November 1, 1870. On November 8, the first warning was issued for stormy conditions on the lakes.

For those of you unfamiliar with the weather of the Great Lakes, you should know that storm systems that move over those lakes can mimic hurricane conditions. It gets very rough up there!

Also on this day….

On this day in 1953, 200 New Yorkers lost their lives to smog-related illnesses. The city had suffered through ten days of smothering smog.

Almanac

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News

The NWS Nashville has completed most of their storm surveys from Monday night’s storms. Here are those tornado paths. Folks, we had some tense moments around here but I still can’t believe how lucky we got. Incidentally, we had tornadoes to our west and lots of straight-line wind damage over in East TN. We literally got jumped over by this line of powerful storms. We should all be counting our blessings.

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Here are some cloud pics I took this morning. The pics really don’t do them justice.

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You all have a great day!

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