The yard sale forecast and watching the tropics

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Weather Headlines

–More scattered showers and storms today

–The yard sale forecast is looking hot & humid, with a chance for a mainly afternoon/evening shower or storm

–Watching the tropics

Main threats

No widespread hazardous weather is expected, but any storm that develops today could become strong, with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Summary

Look for more scattered showers and storms today. I’m already seeing some of those on radar this morning. Not all of us will see rain, but some of you will get some real gully-washers. Always be mindful of that lightning, too.

Pictured below is the current radar (8:40 a.m.). Activity is moving east.

RAD_KOHX_N0R

Then, the yard sale forecast commences! Things are looking very summer-like, with hot and humid conditions that could lead to an isolated shower or storm, mainly in the afternoon and evenings. If you must venture out into yard sale heaven, make sure you have plenty of water and access to shade and air conditioning.

Looking into the extended forecast for next week, I can see no major changes coming. It looks like we’re locked into a summer pattern for many days to come.

Tropics

The tropics are about to get interesting. The disturbance out in the Atlantic now has a 50% chance of development (orange-shaded region). Water temperatures and atmospheric conditions are expected to become very favorable for development in a few days. Anyone with travel plans to the Caribbean within the next week or two should keep an eye on this one. After that, it’s hard to tell where the system will go. Early indications point to a storm that curves out to sea off the Southeast US coast. Let’s hope that holds true!

Speaking of curving out to sea, the disturbance closest to the US has little chance of developing. Even if it did turn into something, it is going to be headed out to sea.

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WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Sharks love salty water, that’s a pretty well-known fact. When it rains a lot, freshwater from rivers spilling into the ocean, or just beach runoff, makes the water near the shore less salty. The less salty water is not appealing to sharks and they will tend to stay farther offshore.

If, however, there are drought conditions with a lack of rainfall, the water near the shore will be much saltier. This could be very attractive to sharks, causing them to swim closer to the shore and closer to your dangling legs in the water. ha

Records

You may not think of tornadoes when you think of Canada, but they can sure have them! On this day in 1987 the town of Edmonton, located in Alberta, Canada, was hit by the deadliest tornado for them in 75 years.

The twister killed 26 people and injured 200 more. The 19-mile long damage path left 400 families homeless. At the Evergreen Mobile Home Park, 200 of the 720 mobile homes there were destroyed.

On the map below, Edmonton is circled in red. Incidentally, this is the same area where our “Alberta Clippers” in the winter are born. You may remember forecasts in the winter calling for those clipper systems to quickly move through, often bringing us colder temperatures and snow flurries.

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Almanac

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Yesterday’s record high: 93 (1954)

Yesterday’s record low: 51 (2014)

Today’s record high: 96 (1980)

Today’s record low: 49 (1965)

Today’s sunset: 7:45

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:47

Today’s day length: 13 hrs 59 mins 55 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 13 hrs 58 mins 16 secs

One year ago today

Just a little over a tenth of an inch of rain fell (0.13″), as high temps only reached 81 degrees. The morning low was a muggy 67 degrees.

News

One of the most popular questions I get asked is, “What do you mean by [insert number] percent chance of rain.” There’s a formula for this answer, but a weather team at WECT in Wilmington put together a graphic to show you the possibilities for each chance of rain.

They added, “The attached graphic includes a mosaic of 110 sample weather radar images for a fictional town called “Probability City”. Each row of images represents ten outcomes for a given rain chance forecast – 0% all the way to 100%. Notice how 20 and 30% chances sometimes yield very wet outcomes and, conversely, a 60 or 70% rain chance can occasionally correspond with dryness.”

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I hope that helps! I always just tell people that if I forecast a 40% chance of rain that means that there is a 40% chance of precip falling on any given point in the area that day. Conversely, that means there’s a 60% chance you’ll stay dry.

You all have a great day!

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