A changing tropical forecast

today

Notice that record low for today!

Weather Headlines

–Hot conditions continue, w/ only slight rain chances

–Slightly better chance of rain for Saturday

–Watching the tropics closely

Main threats

Just be safe in the heat.

Summary

Our hot conditions continue today, with only a slight chance for another afternoon shower or storm. Some of us have gotten some rain the past couple of days, while many have not. At least the clouds, along with having rain in our vicinity, keep us from getting as hot as we would otherwise be. Never the less, we’ve tied record highs the past couple of days and we’re very likely to do so again today.

By Saturday, a weak frontal boundary drifts into our area. This should help increase shower and storm chances, though a lot of us will still stay dry.

Then, our attention turns to the tropics. For the past few days, it looked like a tropical depression or storm would form in the Gulf and move in our general direction. Now, models and guidance are less clear on that scenario. It’s just as likely that it will go out into the Atlantic as it is to come into the Gulf. It’s definitely worth monitoring and I’ll be doing just that!

Almanac

almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

7day

Records

The costliest hurricane in US history (up to that date) struck the coast of Alabama on this day in 1979. The storm’s name was Frederick and he lashed the coast with 132 mph sustained winds. Gusts to 145 mph were also  recorded. A devastating fifteen-foot storm surge accompanied the landfall. In all, 2.3 billion dollars worth of damage resulted from the storm.

Tropics

As I said in the forecast summary above, all eyes are on the disturbance in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move into the Gulf? Will it move into Florida? Will it move up the eastern seaboard of the Southeast Coast like Dorian did? All three are just as possible as the other.

Behind this system is yet another developing system. It too will have to be watched very closely.

two_atl_5d0

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Trade Winds

A wind that blows steadily toward the equator from the northeast in the northern hemisphere. Two belts of trade winds encircle the earth, blowing from tropical high-pressure belts to a low-pressure zone at the equator (winds always blows from highs to lows).

NASA Knowledge

Exciting news from NASA yesterday! A planetary first has been experienced. A faraway planet has been discovered that has water vapor in its atmosphere! The planet also lies in the “habitable zone”, where liquid water could potentially pool. The exoplanet is labeled K2-18b and is orbiting a small red dwarf star about 110 light years away. Yeah, that’s far! (ha)

Regardless of how far it is, this is one of the most promising leads in the search for life (in some form) beyond us.

69825292_10157442609111772_299302415293743104_o

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Nuking a hurricane isn’t a brand new idea. In 1959, a man named Jack Reed developed a plan to do it. A submarine would be used to launch nuclear missiles into the eye of the hurricane. This would disrupt the storm and cause it to weaken or dissipate.

NOAA disagreed.

First of all, the plan wouldn’t work. Hurricanes are far too powerful to be bothered by anything man-made, including nuclear weapons (I can hear the hurricanes laughing now). Second, radioactive fallout would find its way into the Trade Winds, encircling the earth with radiation that would be FAR more consequential than any hurricane.

News

The biggest weather news today is the change in the models for our Bahamas disturbance. Some models even have it becoming an intense hurricane off the Southeast coast by next week.

In other weather news, severe storms will be possible today from central Oklahoma to Iowa. The greater tornado threat will be found across Iowa, with everyone else worrying about large hail and damaging winds primarily.

weatherTAP_RadarLab_Image_20190912_1334

You all have a great day!

 

today

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