Friday is still looking like a warm and windy day. High temps should climb into the lower 60s areawide. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Be sure and secure any loose objects you may have outside.
As for storms, the NWS Nashville and the Storm Prediction Center share my sentiments in having very low confidence in severe weather for tomorrow. We would need to warm substantially in order to have anything significant. That warming would require abundant sunshine and there’s just no evidence that will happen. These clouds are loving our plateau!
There is a bit of a tornado threat for areas mainly west of the plateau, but even that chance is set at 2%.
That being said, IF we can get a storm going it could easily produce some damaging wind gusts. There is a LOT of wind energy in the atmosphere tomorrow and those winds increase as you go up. A storm would be able to push those stronger winds to the surface. These incidences would be very isolated. Widespread severe weather continues to look highly unlikely.
I’ll keep an eye on things for ya and let you know if anything changes. I’m not expecting any watches to be issued but I’ll let you know if there are.
It’s a chilly night out there right now! Temps are in the upper 30s to lower 40s this evening. A light southerly wind overnight may bring those temps up a few degrees as we go through the night. Still, it’s a chilly, damp night out there.
You all take care and be sure and have a very happy New Year!
The wettest year on record for the Cumberland Plateau comes to an end
An unsettled pattern sticks around a while
Strong winds possible Friday
Next week to start off pleasant
Meteorologist Mark’s Vlog in a Flash
I changed up the format a bit today for the vlog. I hope you like the changes!
48-Hour WX
Seven-Day Forecast
Daily Forecast Summary
Today: Showers likely and mild.
Friday: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Windy. Any storm that develops could produce a damaging wind gust.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible overnight.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a chance for morning showers.
Monday – Tuesday: Mostly sunny and mild.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
Threats
A powerful storm system will be situated to our west on Friday, producing very gusty winds across the region. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon and evening. Any of these storms could tap into some of this wind energy and produce a damaging wind gust. Atmospheric instability is weak, so widespread severe weather is not expected. That threat increases just a bit across the western half of Middle Tennessee (ie Nashville area). If anything changes I’ll let you know.
Meteorologist Mark’s Severe Wx Concern
On This Day in Wx History
1927-Â A cold front drops the temperature at Nashville a remarkable 56 degrees — from a high of 58 to 2 degrees the following day.
2018-Â Crossville ends the year with a total of 74.88″ of precipitation — its wettest year ever recorded. We broke that record just two years later in 2020.
Special Note
Two years ago we finished out 2018 with the most rainfall we had ever measured on the Cumberland Plateau in a single year. We measured 74.88 inches that year. Now, just two years later, we have broken that record. We currently have 75.32″ and counting. I’ll have more on this in a future blog post.
Almanac
Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes
High: 90° at Falcon Lake, TexasÂ
Low: -50° at Antero Reservoir, Colorado (this made national news)
Today’s National Wx Hazards
Severe thunderstorms threaten Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama today. All modes of severe weather are possible. Flooding is the greatest risk threatening eastern Texas to southern Arkansas. Freezing rain is producing ice storm conditions from western Texas to Oklahoma, then eastward to southern Illinois, Indiana, and northern Kentucky. The freezing rain transitions to heavy snow for parts of western Texas, where several inches could fall. Meanwhile, another storm system brings more snow to the Rockies.
Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards
A large swath of freezing rain can be found from Kansas to the Northeast. What a mess! The ice is expected to be heaviest across southern Indiana, southern Ohio and northern Kentucky.
 Weather Shots
The deadly Cookeville tornado back in March tops my list of most memorable weather events of 2020. The twister struck in the middle of the night, claiming 19 lives in Putnam County. The supercell that produced the tornado began west of Nashville and traveled over 200 miles, producing devastating twisters along the way. This was the worst tornado in Putnam County history.
NASA NerdologyÂ
For many, including myself, seeing Comet Neowise over the summer was the best of the astronomical events of 2020. I’ll never forget venturing out one morning before dawn and seeing it in the northeastern sky. Between the comet and the view of that sky it was almost breathtaking. Later on, the comet became more visible in the evening sky. What a sight we were all treated to!
You all have a great day!
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We are so fortunate to have breaks in the clouds tonight. That allows us to see the 13th and final Full Moon of 2020. This moon is referred to as the Cold Moon. All Full Moons are named and that’s the name designated for this one.
The moon actually became full during the night last night, but this evening was the first time it rose as a Full Moon.
The clouds just make it look so much cooler. From time to time, the ice crystals in the clouds scatter the light and make reddish hues. It’s so pretty.
If you look nearly straight up you’ll see a red “star”. That’s Mars.
Step out and take a look. Take a jacket, though. There’s a bit of a breeze making it a bit cool.
I snapped some pics and they turned out pretty good! You all have a nice night! Tonight is the last full night of 2020!
Some of you have asked me if I thought there would be a severe weather threat for our area on Thursday. I can certainly understand that, with temps getting into the mid 60s tomorrow. That can certainly be dangerous this time of year. Much of the concern, however, stems from a “weather” Facebook page that is notorious for dramatic weather posts.
There is a threat for some powerful thunderstorms on Thursday but they are expected to stay south of Tennessee. Yes, we have warm temps, but there’s so much more involved with severe weather. The best atmospheric conditions for such weather will be found down in Louisiana and southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. The folks in Hunstville, Alabama aren’t even sure the severe storms will even make it to them.
I’m not saying we won’t have a thunderstorm or two around, but widespread severe weather is certainly not in the cards for us this go around.
Similar “weather” sites have been talking about a blizzard coming January 3rd. It’s not. These sites look at model data two or more weeks out and then make dramatic forecasts based on that data. I cautiously forecast snow 48 hours out, but much less more than 300 years out.
If you see a site that has terrible grammar, excessive use of explanation points, or has a history of being terribly inaccurate you should probably not share that site’s material. It’s one thing to be entertained by the post, it’s another thing to actually share that post. That’s what they want you to do.
Back in March, some folks on the plateau lost everything, including loved ones, in one of the worst tornadoes to ever strike the plateau. When you share posts claiming that we will have tornadoes, and you’re pretty sure that’s not true, then you just contributed to a very sad problem and one that causes unnecessary panic for people who are still hurting. You can’t stop these groups from posting bad information, but you can help stop the spread of that information.
Some folks asked me about these recent posts and every one of them started their inquiry by stating, “I know you haven’t said anything, but I heard…….”. It’s odd to me that folks think I would get some sort of satisfaction by not warning you all that severe weather was coming. And how little would anyone have to know me to think I wouldn’t say anything if I thought it was going to snow? (ha!)
I’m not saying I’m perfect but I can assure you that I try my very best and I have nothing but you all’s safety on my mind all the time. I am a degreed meteorologist and I worked very hard for that education. The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency then trusted me to work for them. And listen, if NASA thinks I can be trusted to cover rocket launches don’t you think that means something, too? haha
You all take care. I sure do appreciate you following the blog and for trusting me with your forecast. It means a lot!
