Baldwin’s Busy Wednesday Wx Blog for Aug 26

At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

The greatest weather threats facing our region will be in the Friday to Saturday time period. Strong to severe storms are possible, including the risk for an isolated tornado. Heavy rainfall is also possible. Very gusty winds, associated with Laura, will also be widespread both Friday and Saturday.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

The track of Laura is becoming much clearer and confidence is increasing that the storm will bring us some strong to severe storms Friday and Friday night. A cold front will then bring more strong to severe storm chances on Saturday.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid. A chance for afternoon/evening showers and storms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid. A slight chance for a mainly afternoon/evening shower or storm.

Friday – Saturday: Rain and storms likely. Some storms could be severe. Heavy rainfall is also possible. Windy.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with slim chances for a mainly afternoon/evening shower or storm.

Monday – Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with scattered showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon/evening.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

I think today is looking alright, though there will be a storm or two across the plateau this afternoon and evening. High pressure around the edge of Laura should bring us a dry day Thursday, before the bottom falls out Friday and Saturday. Then, Sunday looks to be dry, before more scattered showers and storms re-enter the picture early next week.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 121 at Ocotillo Wells, California

Low: 36 at Grand Lake, Colorado

Tropics

As expected, Laura has strengthened significantly and is now a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. This makes Laura the first major hurricane of the 2020 season. Further strengthening is likely. Laura is expected to be a major hurricane when she makes landfall along the Texas/Louisiana border late Wednesday night. Thankfully, increasing wind shear should weaken Laura just a bit before she makes landfall. Still, the storm will be quite severe when landfall occurs.

This is the wind forecast. A large swath of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds are expected with the storm.

As always, the main threat with this tropical system, as with any, is the flooding. Models have backed off a bit on our rainfall, but that’s only due to the faster motion of Laura once she gets into our neck of the woods. That faster motion will keep rain from falling on the same areas for extended periods of time, reducing (not eliminating) our flood threat.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Severe storms will threaten an area arching down from Minnesota to Pennsylvania. Straight-line winds are the main threat. All eyes are on the Gulf, though, as Hurricane Laura gathers strength.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Laura makes landfall. Flooding and damaging winds will threaten a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, severe storms stretch across the northern plains to the East Coast. An active weather day, for sure!

Friday Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Laura brings heavy rainfall to the Lower Mississippi River Valley, while an extensive area of severe weather and flooding rainfall threatens the Midwest.

Records

On this day in 1883 Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. 

Long Range Outlook 

A wet pattern looks to continue for us into the first week of September. The good news is that the wetter weather will keep temperatures down.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

Looking toward the northern horizon, toward Kentucky, at sunset yesterday revealed a sky colored by smoke from wildfires from the western US. It’s amazing how far that smoke travels in the atmosphere.

NASA Nerdology

It was 88 years ago this week that Amelia Earhart departed on the first solo nonstop flight by a woman across the United States. She was flying her iconic red Lockheed Vega. My, how far human means of flight has come! Now, we’re aiming for Mars!

You all have a great day!

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