Baldwin’s Saturday Wx Blog for Sept. 12

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected, though localized flash flooding is possible with any storm that develops from this afternoon through Sunday. That is why NOAA has placed our region in the marginal risk for flash flooding.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Severe storm chances remain quite low. Just always be aware that any storm that develops could produce gusty winds, deadly cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rain. Be mindful of all of this if you have outdoor plans this weekend.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Scattered showers and storms likely by the afternoon and evening. Some of that activity lingers into the night. Some of the rainfall could be heavy with any storm.

Sunday: Scattered showers and storms. Storms could produce heavy rainfall.

Monday – Tuesday: A chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – Thursday: Watching the tropics, as they could influence this part of the forecast heavily. Scattered showers and storms are expected, especially during the afternoon/evening.

Friday: Rain chances should drop off, depending on what the tropical system does.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Rain moves in this afternoon, putting an end to most outdoor activities. That rain will be with us through Sunday, scattered about the region. Next week’s forecast depends heavily on what the tropics do. At this point, I’m leaning toward mainly afternoon/evening shower and storm chances. If the system in the Gulf comes our way mid-week, I’ll have to increase rain chances both days and likely put that red X on them. I’ll keep an eye on things!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 101 at Death Valley, California

Low: 15 at Big Piney, Wyoming

Tropics

The main concern is Tropical Depression Nineteen over southern Florida. I have more info on that below this graphic. The yellow-shaded region in the western Gulf will likely remain disorganized, especially as Tropical Depression Nineteen moves into the Gulf, stealing a lot of energy from that system. Meanwhile, Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene remain well at sea and should stay there, though Paulette will likely impact Bermuda by tomorrow night. The red-shaded region will likely become a named storm within the next 48 hours and that one will have to be watched very closely, as it could track too close for comfort to the US many days from now. The orange-shaded region will likely stay out at sea, but it could also become a tropical storm over the next several days. Whew! I have never seen this map so busy! Remember, we only have four names left. Then, we’ll be using the Greek alphabet.

This Gulf system is expected to remain a tropical storm, as it tracks to near New Orleans by Monday night. It’s not impossible that it could become a hurricane, for sure. That is being monitored very, very closely. The system could pull to the north by Wednesday night, which would increase our rain chances mid-week. I’ll keep an eye on that!

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Unsettled weather continues in the eastern US, but widespread hazardous weather is not expected. All eyes are on that area of low pressure on southern Florida (Tropical Depression Nineteen).

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

More unsettled weather in the east but the tropical storm in the Gulf steals the headlines. We’ll be tracking that storm through the day. Also, notice a wildfire danger continuing across southern Oregon.

 On This Day

1882–Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble.

Long Range Outlook 

Trends are turning cooler for the 17th – 21st. I’m anxious to see if this new trend holds!

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

This satellite imagery shows a HUGE swirl of smoke, caught up in a larger storm system, spinning out in the Pacific. That dirty tinge to the clouds is smoke from all the horrific wildfires out west! What an incredible picture. I’m so glad that smoke is blowing that way and not our way! (Imagery by Dakota Smith (@weatherdak))

NASA Nerdology

This photo was taken from the International Space Station in February of this year by Astronaut Jessica Meir. The photo captures the radiant city night lights of New York City. NASA shared this photo yesterday, as they remembered all those who lost their lives on 9-11 in that city.

Can you imagine looking out the window and seeing such a sight?

You all have a great day!

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