We were right to be worried about today’s storm. Folks just to our west and north are dealing with a very destructive ice storm. Monterey is having problems and Livingston is a war zone. Folks across northern Fentress are dealing with problems, too. Many of you can sympathize with their plight.
The next winter storm to threaten our area is something to watch very closely. Once again, we may find ourselves on the line between rain, ice, and snow. The difference this time is that we will be recovering from this arctic blast coming tonight and tomorrow. The question to answer is will our temperatures recover enough to save us from ice and snow ?
Arctic air is hard to push around. It’s dense and heavy (literally). That’s why today’s ice occurred where it did. That’s as far west and north as the storm could push the arctic air. More often than not, the warm air trying to replace arctic air is forced to move up and over the cold air, because it can’t shove the cold air out of the way. The lighter, warmer air glides up and over the cold, heavy air on the ground. That’s how you end up with warm air on top of cold air and you get rain that freezes when it makes into contact with objects that are on the ground and below freezing (freezing rain).
Let me break down the next storm as simply as I can.
Onset: Precip first develops Wednesday afternoon as a mix of snow and sleet. Accumulation, if any, should be light. The bulk of the precip onset comes Wednesday night and probably not long after sunset.
Wednesday night: Snow and sleet may transition to freezing rain. The wintry mix should persist through Thursday morning. Accumulation is likely and travel Thursday morning could be rough. Keep that in mind.
Thursday: Sleet and freezing rain should transition to rain. Rain could be heavy at times.
Thursday night: Precip ends as light snow (1-2″?)
Questions that need to be answered:
- Will we stay all snow? If so, just how significant would those accumulations be?
- If we transition to freezing rain, how much will accumulate?
- How long will it freeze rain before transitioning to plain rain?
- How much snow will fall after the transition from freezing rain to snow?
Right now, I’m leaning toward a repeat of what we saw today, but with more ice in the morning. Remember, this morning we had just enough ice to hinder travel. I think Thursday morning’s ice could be more substantial. I would then think that the ice will change to plain rain during the day Thursday, then end as a bit of light snow. My confidence is low in this forecast but that’s what I’m starting from, just FYI. This system has a lot of Gulf moisture to work with, so that makes this winter storm especially concerning (like today’s).
Please stay tuned. Many of us have been up to our ears in today’s storm and haven’t given the next one the attention it deserves. It’s unusual to not get more of a break than this. Never the less, I hope this post helps you out. I’ll iron out timing and better details in posts I release tomorrow.
There are many uncertainties with this next event and forecast confidence for this storm is unusually low. Details will likely become clearer tomorrow. Just prepare for this next storm like you did this last one. Once again, we’ll prepare for the worst and hope for the best. About the only thing I’m low on is cheese balls (lol). How do those disappear so fast?…….
For those of you who follow this blog and live in Putnam, Overton and northern Fentress Counties, be aware that this next storm is going to seriously aggravate recovery from the storm you find yourselves in. Try and prepare the best you can for this next one and please know that our hearts are with you. If you need help, don’t hesitate to reach out to your local red cross, etc., especially if you need heat.
Finally, I thank you all so much for reading my blog and I appreciate your trust. I also want to welcome the tons of new followers! Glad to have ya along!
I’ll have lots of new charts and graphs ready for you all tomorrow.
Also…just throwing this out there for no reason…..it’s only 32 days and 7 hours until spring.
See you in the morning!
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