Main Advice: Be home by dark.
Details are becoming much clearer. My lowest confidence is in the noon to 6:00 pm timeframe on Thursday. Keep in mind that the bulk of this winter storm will come in the overnight hours tonight.
Below you will find the modified timeline and precip types. There are changes from this morning’s blog update. You will note that the potential for freezing rain is decreasing, especially north of I-40.
This morning’s map is still on track, but now I’m thinking areas south of the red line are unlikely to ever reach 1/4 inch of ice. It is more likely that you will only accumulate a solid glaze to one tenth of an inch, along with sleet.
North of the red line is where I expect higher snowfall totals, while sleet and a bit of ice will likely cut down on snow totals south of the red line. Please note that this line can easily move several miles either direction. The snow will be a heavy, wet snow and that could threaten power lines, much like the last wet snow we had across the area.
I’m still watching the same things I mentioned in the discussion this morning. Today’s high temp., dry air, track of the low, sleet mixing in, and amount of moisture.
Below is the current radar. Much of what you see just west of Nashville is evaporating before it hits the ground, like what I discussed with drier air this morning. Activity is moving east, northeast. Yesterday, models indicted this activity would be on us at this time, prompting me to issue the special 4:00 update warning you of that potential. Obviously, the system has slowed and models were off about 100 miles. That buys us some extra time to prepare.
I’ll keep a very close eye on things as the system moves in. I’ll let you know if anything changes that you need to know about. Just keep in mind that the wet, heavy nature of the snow could cause disruptions to power.
I’ll update again at 6:00 pm, or as needed.
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