Noon Saturday Severe Wx Update

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The NWS Nashville briefing was very helpful. We should be very grateful for their help and hard work.

The Storm Prediction Center updated just issued a statement saying that a tornado watch will be issued for much of Middle TN within the next hour or so. That will include most counties of southern Middle TN. I have a feeling they will include Cumberland and Putnam counties and counties south of us. Stay tuned for that watch that is coming within the next couple of hours.

Please note that any severe weather risk today is highest for folks within and south of Putnam and Cumberland counties. You folks in Overton and Fentress counties have a bit lower chance, as it looks right now. The further south of the interstate you are, the greater your chance for severe weather could be.

With that being said, if you warm to 65 degrees or better today you could be in trouble. If temps don’t get that warm, you are in MUCH less (if any?) trouble. Let’s keep that darn sun behind the clouds!

So, there’s five situations to watch for and the first is nearly guaranteed. Situations 2 and 3 are tied together, as are situations 4 and 5.

Situation #1: We get lots of rain. In fact, we could see as much as 3-5 inches of rain. If you live in a flood-prone area be aware of this. For the rest of us, NEVER drive across a flooded roadway. You don’t know how deep the water is (is the road washed out?) or how fast the water is really moving. Just turn around, don’t drown.

The following two situations come this afternoon and evening. It would be isolated supercells, so specific timing is not possible.

Situation #2: We stay cloud and rainy and cool. This is the greatest thing that could happen. We need the sun to stay away today. We get rain and storms but most storms, if not all, stay below severe limits in situation #2.

Situation #3: The sun comes out and/or we warm into the upper 60s. This would be concerning. That would mean that afternoon and evening thunderstorms may fire off and ANY of those would pose a tornado threat, as well as a large hail threat.

The following two situations come after midnight

Situation #4: A strong to severe line of storms comes in after midnight and brings a high wind threat and even a possible tornado spin-up risk. The line would also contain torrential rainfall that could lead to dangerous flash flooding, as well as large hail. This would be a line, so it would pass through quickly and be gone.

Situation #5: A line of storms comes through late tonight but storms weaken as they encounter the plateau, leaving us with just some gusty winds and heavy rainfall (still a flash flood threat)

Summary:

Tornado watches will be issued for at least part of the area later this afternoon and evening. Stay tuned for those. Just stay weather aware and I’ll let you know if there’s any good or bad news to pass along. Again, let’s keep these clouds around AND stay out of the 65-degree or warmer range.

The line of storms coming late tonight may prove more concerning than anything we get this afternoon and evening. I’ll keep an eye on that.

Just stay tuned and stay weather aware!

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