Good evening, everyone. I just wanted to update you on Thursday’s storms. First of all, the morning hours are looking fine. Anything you have planned in the morning should be unaffected by any storms.
As we pass the noon hour, we’ll turn our attention to storms building across West TN. The main line should be crossing the Mississippi River at 2:00 pm. It should get to Nashville around 5:00.
The first threat will be from very gusty winds on Thursday afternoon. Even without storms, southerly winds could gust to 45 mph after 1:00 pm. Make sure any loose objects you have outside are secure. Those winds will strongest in the three of four hours before the line of storms arrives.
The second threat comes with a line of storms Thursday evening. Right now, the timeframe of 6:00-9:00 looks to be the greatest risk for this line of storms to come through. Damaging straight-line winds will be the main threat, although a quick spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out.
The greatest risk for tornadoes will be well to our west. If you have travel plans that take you to Nashville and points west you’ll need to monitor the weather closely. As is often the case this time of year, the line of storms should lose steam as it moves across Middle TN.
This particular model starts at 4:00 pm and ends at 9:00 pm. While timing could be off a bit, it seems to have a good handle on what us forecasters are thinking.
You all take care. Tomorrow continues to look like a low-end threat but it’s certainly not a zero-level threat. With winds as strong as they’ll be it won’t take much of a thunderstorm to make for a damaging wind gust. If we get sun tomorrow that will raise our severe threat level a bit.
I’ll keep an eye on things. For severe weather safety, please see my link at https://meteorologistmark.com/severe-weather-safety/