Good evening, folks. I wanted to give you an update on the storm threat coming both tonight and tomorrow. This continues to look like a low-end threat, but it’s not a zero-level threat. The timing of Tuesday’s rain and storms has changed. More on that below.
First of all, the batch of storms I said would develop tonight is taking shape across parts of Middle TN right now. Some of those storms are on the strong side, with some gusty winds and small hail. These are moving eastward and will arrive between 8:30 and 9:30 pm.
It had looked like storms would mainly affect Fentress County, but activity has developed farther south, too. This means our rain chances are going from 60% to 80% for the plateau, with many of us seeing measurable rainfall and possibly some strong storms tonight.
The radar below is from 7:50 pm. Storms are below severe limits and should stay that way. I’ll monitor closely. Cumberland and Fentress County are highlighted.
By Tuesday morning, the atmosphere will be ramping back up for more storms. If we get sunshine in the morning, our atmosphere will become even more unstable. By afternoon, any storm that can develop could be intense. That threat looks low, but should increase after dark.
So, tomorrow morning should be fine but a few thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. After dark, the storms and rainfall should really pick up.
So, timing with this system continues to change a bit, with the greater threat from storms and heavy rainfall possibly holding off until after dark Tuesday. Some data shows storms just sitting on the plateau for a few hours tomorrow night. That could certainly lead to flash flooding, if that verifies.
Also, keep in mind that southerly winds will gust over 35 mph on Tuesday. That could lead to some sporadic power outages.
I’ll keep a close eye on things and let you know of any more changes that may come with this system. Again, tonight’s threat is very low but tomorrow night’s may be something for us to be aware of, especially if we get sun tomorrow and temps warm into the 70s.
You all take care! I’ll update as needed. Otherwise, I’ll have a full update out in the morning!