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Monday Midday Weather Update

I just wanted to jump on here a minute and let you all know that I just sat in on a NWS conference call and the concerns for Wednesday’s severe weather are still valid. It still appears that the greatest threat will come sometime in the afternoon to early evening. Timing could change, of course, so stay tuned for that.

My greatest concern about that timing is the letting out of schools. Timing will become clearer over the next 24 hrs, so stay tuned.

The main threat appears to be damaging straight-line winds but tornadoes are certainly possible. The threat is even higher around the Chattanooga area. In other words, the farther south you live the higher your threat on Wednesday.

The following is a radar simulation that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday morning. The model is in one-hour increments. This particular simulation seems to capture what I’m thinking pretty well. Notice that Tuesday’s storms stay south of our area. By Wednesday morning, you can see storms gathering at the Mississippi River. Those will then push eastward. It is too early to know if this will be one big line of storms or it will be supercells followed by a line of storms. I’ll keep a very close eye on that part. Most guidance seems to suggest a single line.

FYI, much of the guidance that has come in this morning continues to indicate a decent chance for snow showers Friday night and even Saturday. In fact, models keep getting more aggressive with that snow. I’m still not sure if we’ll have any accumulation but it’s something worth watching.

Crossville is certainly not immune to April snow, though it often just comes as flurries. During the span of a few days stretching from April 2-5, 1987, four to eight inches of snow fell across the plateau. Parts of southeast Kentucky had a foot of snow and the mountains of eastern Kentucky had one to three FEET of snow!

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