Warm temperatures have moved back into our area and since it’s April, that means we’ll now be talking about storms. Any storm we get on Monday should be below severe limits, but I wouldn’t be surprised if storms Monday night are on the strong side. I’ll look at the data tomorrow before saying too much about that. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
More storms late Tuesday night could also be on the strong side. I hope to have more info on those storms in the morning blog, after more rounds of data come in tonight.
By Wednesday, a very warm and humid airmass will move into our area and this next round of storms coming Wednesday evening/night may pack a bit of a punch. I should note that today’s data made me feel better about Wednesday’s storms. Models have trended toward a powerful line of storms crossing West TN but then weakening as they cross Middle TN. We’ve seen that happen several times this year and we’ll hope they weaken for us again this time.
This radar simulation seems to show what many of us are thinking for the next couple of days. This starts at 7:00 in the morning and runs through Tuesday afternoon. Notice that much of the thunderstorm activity on Monday stays just north of TN and north of a warm front that will be lifting north. That warm front will also bring very gusty winds to our area tomorrow. There are indications that more storms may affect our area late Tuesday night and some of those could be strong. As this simulation shows, an unsettled pattern will be evolving.
The upper-level wind pattern for Wednesday and Wednesday night looks very concerning for areas around Arkansas and West TN. Those red colors you see are faster winds aloft, which often help storms become very severe. Look at those purples (very strong winds!) showing up over Chicago Wednesday night. Those have moved there from Arkansas and West TN from earlier in the day. As you can see in this image, those winds are moving north of us. This is what we mean when we say the “dynamics have moved away from our area.” With weaker winds in our skies, our storms should weaken as the cold front charges east. Remember, to get robust severe storms the surface and the atmosphere need to line up to support those storms. At this time (and this could change) the surface conditions and atmospheric conditions would not by in sync for us to get widespread severe weather. But stay tuned, as this could change.
The Storm Prediction Center
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an enormous threat area for Wednesday. Notice the main focus is off to our west, where the previous image showed the better jet stream dynamics lining up. Never the less, they do worry that storms will still be strong when they move east to our area. Folks across Arkansas, southern Missouri, western Kentucky, West TN, and Mississippi are liable to be in for a very rough weather day Wednesday.
As of tonight, things are not looking all too bad for us this week. As is often the case this time of year, folks to our west and south are probably going to get hit much harder than we do. But again, as that system moves east the better atmospheric dynamics may race off to the north. Furthermore, some models this evening show us not getting as humid on Wednesday as they had showed earlier. That would REALLY help us out. So, just stay tuned and let’s hope that tomorrow’s data trends even better for us.
So, off-and-on storm chances begin tomorrow and last through Wednesday night, with Wednesday night posing the greatest risk for severe storms. If trends continue, I will lower my concern to “low” from “medium” in tomorrow morning’s update.
I’ll have a full update in the morning.
You all take care!