The latest data indicates our threat timeframe will be from the 6:00 pm to midnight timeframe. This is a change from my earlier forecast of 3:00pm – 9:00 pm. The good news is that this later time of arrival means the line of storms will arrive when temps are cooling a bit from the warmest part of the day. This will diminish our severe weather risk.
The risk is very low but it’s not zero. The main risk is a damaging wind gust.
The really bad news is that it’s not looking like we’ll get much rain at all. We could use the rain!
Gusty southerly winds will pick up by Tuesday morning and increase through the day. Wind gusts could top 30 mph or better. A wind advisory is in effect for much of Middle TN for tomorrow but it currrently excludes the plateau. One good thing about having dry soils is that it’s harder to blow trees over. A windy day with saturated soils can lead to lots of problems.
Taking all things into consideration, I’m lowering my concerns for tomorrow. As you know, my concerns were always low for tomorrow’s storms. Now, they’re even lower. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center maintains the marginal risk for severe weather for our area tomorrow, which means the risk is very low but not zero.
I’ll have a full update in the morning!
