Earlier today, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded parts of West Tn to the marginal risk for severe storms. The marginal threat is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories. This evening, the SPC issued what’s called a mesoscale discussion (small-scale discussion) for an area larger than the marginal risk area and coming within 50 miles of parts of the plateau. They state that a “watch” isn’t necessary but that an isolated severe storm couldn’t be ruled out. While this area is still to our west, it is closer than it was earlier.
Any storm we get late tonight or early in the morning could produce gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rainfall. The airmass tonight is very warm and humid. In fact, our overnight low is going to be nearly 30 degrees above normal!
Just keep in mind that we could have thunderstorms late tonight and one or two of them could be strong. Severe weather is still not expected in our area. If you see any severe storm warnings issued west of Nashville tonight just know that activity is expected to stay out in that part of the state.
The red-circled area on the radar below is the area the SPC is monitoring. That threat is greatest from 8:00-10:00 tonight. After that, the atmosphere across the western end of the state is expected to stabilize enought to keep storms from being severe. The same is true for our area.
I’ll keep an eye on things.