Thursday will be a weather-aware day for severe thunderstorms. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the risk for tornadoes. This will likely be the greatest severe weather threat we’ve faced in this new year.
First things first….. A warm front will lift north tonight. If you can believe it, there’s even warmer and more humid air to our south that will lift north. This warm front is an active one and thunderstorms are possible later tonight. Looking at the latest data, storms will likely be most prevalent around the 2-4:00 a.m. hours. Small hail and gusty winds can’t be ruled out. Keep in mind that thunder with warm fronts is louder than usual, due to the temperature profile of the atmosphere when a warm front is moving through (warmer air on top of colder aid causes sound waves to be enhanced. It’s physics…trust me. lol ). Winds will likely pick up tonight, with gusts to 30 mph possible.
What could go right:
Clouds and showers persist into the morning hours. This would help stabilize our atmosphere and reduce the threat. It won’t completely rule out the threat, but a more stable morning atmosphere could be enough to help us dodge a bullet.
Storms to our south in Alabama and Mississippi could be very severe and those storms may rob our atmosphere of energy. That would work in our favor.
What could go wrong:
A break in the morning rain and even peaks of sun. That could lead to highs near 70 degrees and would destabilize the atmosphere. This would enhance our risk for all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes.
One thing worth noting is how the short-term models have backed off on activity tonight for Cumberland County. I’m not completely sold on that, but much of tonight’s activity may focus more on Fentress County (and areas east and west of them). That scenario would not bode well for Cumberland County on Thursday, as limited activity tonight and the morning could lead to a more unstable atmosphere on Thursday.
My link to severe weather safety tips can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/severe-weather-safety/
The Storm Prediction Center has just issued a statement about West TN and norther Mississippi. Tornado watches are forthcoming for them for tonight. If you know anyone who lives out that way let them know to be paying attention to the weather tonight.
I’ll be monitoring the weather closely tonight and Thursday.
YouTube
My YouTube update for tonight is taking it’s time loading. It should be available by 8:30 or so at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog
Snow
There is still a risk of light snow late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Impacts look minimal, but I’ll monitor that closely.
