Saturday Night Special Update Issued December 16, 2023
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MM’s 5-Day Forecast
Tonight’s water vapor imagery is full of meteorology! Notice the big Gulf storm developing in the eastern Gulf at this hour. That will be the storm that really grabs the headlines over the next 24 hours. Notice another little peice of energy swirling over Missouri. That will swing through here overnight and in the morning, kicking off more rain showers. Cold air is spilling into the US on the Canada border. That’s the cold air that will arrive here on Monday, accompanied by another disturbance like the one swirling over Missouri tonight. (In an ideal snowstorm scenario, that cold air would arrive here right now. It’s only a few hundred miles behind…ha).
Model data
It’s cool to see that disturbance in Missouri show us so well on model data this evening. This is mostly for you weather nerds (ha). This begins tonight and ends Monday night, moving in six hour increments. Notice how the lines (isobars) really howl out of the northwest on Monday, increasing our chances for “northwest flow snow.” Northwest flow snow occurs when winds hit the southwest-to-northeast oriented plateau at 90-degree angles, which enhances uplift and can lead to some light snow. The more moist those winds can be, the better the chance for snow.
MM’s 5-Day Forecast
Tracking a Winter Storm System
A very chilly rain is currently developing across the region, as expected. As we go through the night, rain will become more widespread and winds will continue to be gusty, at times reaching 30+ mph. The wind and rain continue into Sunday morning, but both should begin to taper off around noon, with precip possibly ending as a rain/snow mix (thanks to some possible dynamic cooling). Total rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch are possible from Saturday night and Sunday morning’s rain.
Gusty winds will return in earnest by late Sunday night, with gusts once again reaching for the 30 mph mark.
Those gusty winds will blow in another system that will ride the jetstream into our area by late Sunday night and Monday. This is all a part of that BIG Nor’easter making its way up the East Coast. This all results in a likely chance for snow flurries and snow showers across the plateau on Monday. Some light accumulation looks possible, with grassy areas being the most susceptible to picking up a dusting to half an inch of snow or so (right now, that looks most possible across Fentress County and points north).
MUCH colder air works into the area Monday night, with overnight lows dipping into the teens. Make sure your outdoor fur babies have a dry and warm place to sleep.
Stay tuned for weather updates throughout the weekend!
This forecast will be udpated Sunday morning.
Current Snow Forecast by Models
Models show a typical “northwest flow snow event” developing for us on Monday. Snow flakes will likely fall, but accumulation is a bit more uncertain. It just depends on how quickly surface temps drop to freezing. Regardless, accumulation should be confined to grassy areas and the like and stay under one half inch. Notice the abscence of snow in the valley with Knoxville. That’s because northwest winds rise up the eastern side of the plateau and then sink on the eastern side. That causes sinking air in the valley and that prevents snow. In northwest flow events, areas along the western edge of the plateau tend to see more snow fall (ie Mayland, Monterey).
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