Unseasonably warm temps have been with us through much of February. For many, the temps were a welcome relief from the bitter cold temps experienced in January. However, the warm temps came with a severe weather threat that culminated in the development of a supercell during the afternoon of Thursday, February 7, that would spawn several tornadoes and even claim two lives in Morgan County.
As many of you know, I’m contracted with Crossville City Fire for weather info. I also check in with the Cumberland County EMA and talk over any concerns they may have. At 8:20 Thursday morning, I sent a text to them saying, “This system is lingering and that means another day of keeping an eye on the radar. There’s nothing too concerning, but it only takes one rowdy storm. I’ll watch it close.” I shared similar info on my app and website with you all, stressing the risk was “low but not zero.”
We had seen a low-end threat for severe storms for Wednesday evening that didn’t amount to anything. This left many of us hoping we had dodged the threat, though the National Weather Service (NWS) and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reminded us to not let our guard down until the front cleared the area Thursday night. By Thursday morning, it was obvious we hadn’t dodged the threat altogether, but it was still a low-end threat.
By mid-morning, the SPC upgraded our area to a slight risk, which is level 2 out of the 5 risk levels. At 11:01, I notified City Fire and County EMA that I was watching storms fire off west of Nashville, so we had time to watch things.
At 5:23, I sent a text to City Fire and County EMA that, “That storm north of Gallatin has been interesting. So far, it’s behaving but it’s one to keep an eye on. Should stay north of Cumberland Co.” It certainly was one to watch as it evolved into a stronger supercell as it moved across northern Middle TN. My fellow “radar warriors” began messaging me on Facebook, making sure I was tracking the storm (thank you!). I certainly was.
I also thank my intern, Davis Roberts, for making sure I was aware of the situation. It never hurts to have more than one set of eyes on things!
In my morning forecast on the app and website, I mentioned a “low but not zero” threat. The severe weather graphic showed a low-end risk for a tornado, straight-line winds, and hail. It was a “level 2” concern day, meaning the headline image reminded folks that it was a “Meteorologist Mark Weather Alert Day.” The scale goes up to level 5.
By 10:20, I sent out an update to let you all know that the SPC had upgraded our area to a slight risk. The risk for a tornado was still low, but not zero.
I sent out another update at 1:40, reminding folks to stay weather-aware and that storms near Nashville were being tracked.
Then, a string of updates ensued. Beginning at 5:50, I started sending out regular updates to make folks aware of a supercell that I was tracking toward the plateau. At 6:45, a tornado warning was issued for Fentress County and the very northern tip of Cumberland County. When I was absolutely certain the storm would not impact Cumberland County, I notified dispatch that the storm would stay north of Cumberland County.
As the storm moved through Putnam and Overton counties, it looked very intense and showed strong signs of rotation. But as it climbed the plateau, it began to weaken and look more disorganized. What a relief…. but a cautious relief, for sure. As it crossed southern Fentress County, it remained concerning (and definitely severe) but without a clear indication of a tornado. As it moved into the eastern portion of southern Fentress County, it clearly restrengthened on radar and produced another weak tornado. That tornado would then rapidly strengthen into an EF-2 into Morgan County, where it would claim two lives.
Supercells often go through cycles and this one was no different. They strengthen and weaken with a bit of a rhythm. The tornadoes that may occur with them also cycle. This is one reason why some communities get “skipped over” by the tornadoes associated with these storms.
Similar to the March 2020 supercell that spawned the Baxter and Rinnie tornadoes, this was just one lone cell that decided to track for hours across the state. Warnings were issued all the way to the Smoky Mountains with this storm!
In order to know if a storm produced straight-line winds (winds that literally blow out straight and in one direction) or if the winds rotated with a tornado, there has to be a storm survey conducted by the NWS. Whether the winds are straight-line or rotating, they are loud and very frightening. They are also damaging. Straight-line winds can be just as destructive as a weak tornado.
The NWS has concluded their surveys of Thursday’s storm and have found the following….
The supercell produced the first of four tornadoes in our area in Jackson County. You can see that survey below.
The storm then produced another tornado in Putnam and Overton County.
A third tornado touched down in Overton County.
And then the fourth tornado touched down in eastern Fentress County and on into Morgan County (the NWS Nashville surveys the storms for Middle TN and the NWS Morristown surveys East TN storms. Morgan County is in the East TN area, so Morristown conducted that survey).
The official storm report for the Morgan County tornado states that the “Tornado may have started in southeast Fentress County before tracking into forested areas of Morgan County that were inaccessible to the survey team. The tornado moved southeast where it produced EF-2 damage, destroyed two mobile homes, and damaged multiple barns and outbuildings near the intersection of Twin Bridge Rd and Thurman Lavender Rd. As the tornado continued southeast, it snapped the top of trees consistent with EF-1 damage near the convergence of Highway 62 and Deer Lodge Highway. The tornado continued southeast into forested areas inaccessible to the survey team before dissipating prior to Highway 27,” NWS Morristown.
Thankfully, three of the four tornadoes were “weak”, with the Morgan County tornado being the strongest of the group. The weaker tornadoes make up the majority of tornadoes that touch down in the U.S. each year, but the stronger tornadoes (EF-2 and higher) account for the vast majority of fatalities.
A “watch” was never issued for Cumberland or Fentress counties. The Storm Prediction Center didn’t think it was necessary and I don’t fault them for that. It was, after all, just one severe storm that we were tracking. They did issue a severe t-storm watch for much of East TN and they had more severe storms than any of us on the plateau did, so that was certainly warranted.
Tornadoes in February
So, this all got me to digging into the data today to see how unusual it is to have February tornadoes. Severe weather season doesn’t officially begin until March 1, but sometimes Ma Nature doesn’t pay attention to the calendar. I did find that there have been no February tornadoes ever reported in Pickett, Bledsoe, Overton, or Scott counties. Thursday’s tornado was the first February tornado for Morgan County.
For Fentress County, there have been five other February tornadoes. Thursday’s will make six. You can see those tracks on the map below.
Cumberland County has had three February tornadoes, including the one on Leap Day which would normally have been a March tornado. That tornado claimed two lives on February 29, 2012. It is the green line you see below. FYI, the February 21, 1993, tornado was part of a tornado outbreak that impacted East TN that year. It was followed by the “Blizzard of the Century” just a few weeks later in March of 1993.
Putnam County has had only one February tornado and that was during the 1993 tornado outbreak.
White County has reported four tornadoes in February. All were very weak.
Morgan County has now had their 9th tornado and their first one in February (the green line).
Notice the interesting cluster of tornado reports near Sunbright. It’s gets even more interesting. The two blue lines are for tornadoes that occurred in the last couple of years. One struck on April 1, 2023. One year and one day later, the second one hit! The orange line is from the April 3, 1974, super outbreak of tornadoes that hit the plateau. They went 49 years without a tornado in the Sunbright area and then they had back to back years with tornadoes in 2023 and 2024. Morgan County has now been hit by tornadoes three years in a row!
There’s another place that has had a similar history with tornadoes but it’s in Kansas. The town of Codell, Kansas, ws hit by tornadoes on May 20, of 1916, 1917, and 1918! I bet they were nervous on May 20, 1919!
I want to say that I appreciate you all trusting me with your weather. Things can change fast this time of year and it’s important to check for updates. February and March can come with anything from sunshine, to knee-deep snow, to tornadoes, flooding, rainbows, fog, fire and brimstone……ok, maybe not fire and brimstone but you get the point! Ha!
Incidentally, I’ll be teaching another one-day course this semester on the forecasting challenges of the plateau. I’ll be doing that with Roane State’s Lifelong Learning program. It’s going to be a very interesting discussion! Please visit https://www.roanestate.edu/?12332-Center-for-Lifelong-Learning-CLL to learn more about this program!
I’ll be giving a similar talk at Cornerstone Baptist Church Monday night.
If you ever have any questions for me, please let me know!
We sure have been reminded that severe weather season is upon us! As part of severe weather awareness week in the third week of this month, we’ll be raising money for weather radios again by showing Twisters at the Palace! Join us if you can! This is always a great time!
And Please Thank My Sponsors!
The support of sponsors keeps this site and app free for you all to enjoy! And their sponsorships help pay for space and storm chase camp returning this summer! I’m particular about who I let sponsor, so please know these are folks I trust and whose services I don’t hesitate to share.
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.