I’ll issue special updates this evening, as needed, to keep you posted!
Summary
March winds have definitely shown their stuff today! Whew….
As for the stormy side of the system….
Heavy rainfall is overspreading West TN at this hour and that’s good news for us. Instead of an organized squall line developing, it’s evolving more into a widespread rain event. That’s due to the warm front being south of TN. That warm front would need to lift north of TN for us to be in the warmest and most unstable airmass. That’s not going to happen, but that doesn’t rule out storms. The most humid airmass (the air that always makes us say “it feels like tornado weather outside” is well to our south. Thank goodness that more humid air didn’t get up here because we would have been primed for tornadoes in this situation.
I think that as the area of heavy rain nears us, a narrow line of heavier rain and thunder will form on the leading edge of it. That may reach up to the plateau, especially for those of you south of the interstate. Right now, that line is struggling to even reach into TN from Alabama.
The most concerning aspect of any heavier downpours will be their ability to pull down stronger wind gusts. If you think it’s windy down here, you should see how windy it is a couple thousand feet off the ground! Heavier downpours could pull some of those gusts down and cause some damage if they do (60+ mph wind gusts).
No severe weather watches are expected this evening.
All in all, the severe weather threat looks very low. In fact, I haven’t seen a warning issued in all of TN with this. It’s these darn gusty winds that are the most problematic, and I suspect they’ll leave some wind damage behind. Power outages are still a concern.
Wednesday will be windy but not nearly as windy as today was (30-35 mph gusts). As the winds switch to the northwest, temps will tumble. That will take place tomorrow afternoon. Then, another system swings through and by then it will be cold enough for snow! And yes, light accumulation is certainly possible. Please see graphics below for more info!
I’ve dropped the tornado threat. And the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center shows they agree, as they keep the tornado threat in Alabama. There’s no large hail threat, either.
I’ve increased the snow threat after looking at today’s data. I also changed the start time for possible impacts
to 5:00 pm.
Stay tuned to possible updates to this! Confidence will likely increase with tomorrow’s data. I think more than an inch of snow will fall, but I think an inch is the most likely amount to accumulate. This is still enought to cause slick spots on roads, esp bridges and overpasses.
And yes, it might even be enough to get a snow day! Stay tuned to updates to this!
I will issued updates as needed this evening!
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