Some of us saw some lightning in the skies toward Kentucky on our drive home from work. It reminded me of distant summer storms. Much of that activity is staying in Kentucky thus far, with a couple showers slipping south on you folks in Overton and Fentress counties this evening.

In a bit of a perplexing move, the Storm Prediction Center highlighted parts of our area in the marginal risk for severe storms. They first did that yesterday afternoon. They have continued to maintain that risk, though the threat, albeit low, has always seemed to be more focused to our west (even west of Nashville) and northwest (into western Kentucky). I haven’t been concerned about this, so I haven’t said much about it. I normally don’t dismiss the Storm Prediction Center’s thoughts but I was in good company, with the NWS Nashville and NWS Morristown (East TN) never showing much concern at all for this.

This evening, we see a severe t-storm watch acrsoss parts of northern West TN and western Kentucky. Those storms are struggling. That’s in spite of their atmosphere being more unstable than ours. Plus, they have a much more moist air mass across West TN, while our airmass remains relatively dry here on the plateau. Storms may become stronger in the watch area over the next couple of hours, but it continues to look to me like storms will struggle with intensity as they make their way closer to the plateau later tonight.

As I’ve said all along, rain chances are high tonight but rainfall amounts look low. Many of us will try to get to a quarter of an inch. However, if you do get a thunderstorm you could end up with a bit more. The only part of my thinking that has changed is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of thunderstorms on the plateau overnight. I don’t think those storms will become severe.

Still, I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know if there’s anything at all you need to know about.

You all have a good evening and thank you so much for trusting me with your weather!

I’ve updated the precip timing.

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