Issued Wednesday evening, January 28, 2026

Preparing for the Cold, Monitoring the Snow

I’ll begin this similar to how I started last night’s special update…be careful if there’s fog in the morning. That fog could cause slick spots on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses. Anywhere there’s fog, slow down and be careful.

Now, for the weekend forecast!

Yet another arctic blast is expected to arrive on Friday. That front should arrive around noon. Arctic blasts often come with snow showers and this one will be no different. In fact, the chances for snow showers will be higher with this particular front, since it will be accompanied by a rather potent area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. We call these upper level lows. Unlike surface lows, upper level lows spin at about 18,000 feet up off the ground!

The graphic below shows the layers of the atmosphere. Pressure gets lower as you go higher, starting around 1,000 mb here at the surface and decreasing to around 300 mb where the jet stream is at about 30,000 feet. We need to know what’s going on at each layer in order to understand the weather forecast. For our weekend weather, we’re watching the 500 mb level because that’s where the center of low pressure will be that will give us snow shower chances. I hope that makes sense!

Also, with the diagram I added the weather balloon launch from this morning at the NWS Nashville. The red line is temp and the green line is moisture. Notice how those change as we ascend up into the atmosphere. Wind data is on the right. Weather changes with each layer and it can be a challenge to keep up with those changes! When we miss a forecast, it’s because something surprised us at one of those layers. Thank God for the help of supercomputers to help us keep some of this straight!

Areas of low pressure often tilt up through the atmosphere, with the surface low being the lowest part of the system (of course). For example, the surface low will be off the Southeast coastline this weekend and it will tilt to the northwest. The part of the spinning low at the higher levels will be right over us (500 mb level at about 18,000 feet). That is what will give us our shot at snow showers, along with being accompanied by the arctic front.

While upper level lows can certainly give decent snow showers, the surface lows are what often produce the highest moisture amounts. That’s why the Carolinas will get so much more snow…they’re nearer to the surface coastal low. Enough of that moisture will make it to the Smokies to give them a good snow, too. This is one of those situations where folks east of us will likely see more snow than any of us on the plateau do.

Still, we can’t ignore any wintry precip that we might get, so we’ll be mindful of our snow chances. Plus, don’t forget that an upper level low is a weatherperson’s woe….they can have surprises because we have so little data at the level at which they are at.

Also, don’t forget the cold that we’ll have to bundle up for once again. The gusty winds will make it feel much, much colder.

One other thing helping with our snowfall totals is that it will be a very “dry” snow. Normally, a snowflake is about 90% air! With dry snow, there’s even less moisture! So, with a normal snow we can say that one inch of rain would equal about 10 inches of snow. With “wet” snows, one inch of rain might equal 8 inches of snow (I’ve seen us have snow that was so wet on the plateau that one inch of rain equaled 5 inches of snow. That was crazy!). WIth drier snows, one inch of rain could equal 20 inches or more of snow. So, even with very limited moisture for our system this weekend, it won’t take much moisture to create a little bit of snow!

Guidance continues to show a strong upper level low in our neck of the woods Friday and Saturday. That spin rolls right through our area!

And that low will very, very cold at its core. This increases instability and helps create more clouds and snow showers. As the upper level low spins toward the coastline, it will cause the surface low over there to absolutely explode in intensity. It will be interesting to watch that play out!

And yes, a warming trend is in sight….

I’ll keep you posted and I’ll have a fresh update in the morning!

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