Author: Meteorologist Mark

If you look to our south and southeast right now (1:30 pm Sunday), you’ll see the first clouds from Irma that are making their way this way. We expect clouds to gradually increase throughout Sunday night, with mostly cloudy skies around for Monday. We’ll see a chance of showers through the day Monday, as well as increasing winds. Winds will be gusty by the afternoon and downright windy by Monday night. Rain could be a bit heavy at times and we may see an inch or two of rainfall by the time this is all said and done. Tuesday looks breezy and rainy as well, though things should be calming down by Tuesday evening.

We could have some sporadic power outages Monday afternoon and night as winds pick up. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are expected, with gusts to 40-50 mph. The strongest winds are expected Monday evening and night.

I’ll have a full update Monday morning. You all have a great Sunday and enjoy this nice weather while we have it!

Irma is finally moving away from Cuba and will more than likely intensity tonight. The current forecast has Irma becoming a cat 4, but it is not out of question that she could reach cat 5 status again.

The current track has Irma moving just south of the plateau on Tuesday, which puts us at risk for tornadoes. In addition, very gusty winds and heavy rainfall will also be possible. We should also prepare for sporadic power outages. It is possible that this path will change as we get closer to Tuesday, so stay tuned. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow, as we see how Irma will track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The 1:00 pm update on Irma is out and a path toward Crossville is looking more and more likely.  The center of the storm, which should be weakened to a tropical storm or depression, should pass just to our south and then west. This puts us in the highest tornado potential, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. We could see sustained winds on Tuesday of 35-40 mph and higher gusts. Isolated tornadoes will also be likely. Remember, tornadoes from tropical systems are usually weak and short-lived. Here is the latest track:

Irma is currently strengthening and is almost back to cat 5 status. Jose, which is behind Irma, has strengthened today and is also almost a cat 5 hurricane. Unfortunately, it will hit some of the same islands Irma devastated, before it curves northward.

Hurricane Katia is now a cat 2 storm with 105 mph winds. It will be headed into Mexico. Unfortunately, the west side of Mexico was hit with a terrible 8.2 earthquake this morning.

You’ve probably heard about the big wildfires out west? If you haven’t, we needn’t forget the disaster that Montana and several western states are in with fires, heat, and drought. Some of that smoke has now drifted our way, thanks to northwesterly winds bringing it our way. You may notice the sunsets being a beautiful orange color over the next few evenings. Particulates from smoke can make beautiful sunsets.

Finally the earth has been hit with a huge solar storm over the last 24 hours. What has NOT happened lately, right? (ha) The northern lights will be visible as far south as Kentucky tonight! We MAY be able to see them from here. I’ll be out looking and I will send posts out on Facebook and at meteorologistmark.com if I see anything. When northern lights are this far south they appear as reddish streaks on the northern horizon. I’ve seen them from here before but it’s been many years ago. It’s worth looking for!

Hurricane Irma remains a very powerful cat 4 hurricane this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. This is just two miles per hour away from cat 5. Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which often leads to some weakening. When this cycle is complete, Irma will likely re-intensify.  Now, we wonder if the US is about to get hit by a cat 5 hurricane? We’ve only had three since records have been kept. There was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (that was before we named storms) that hit the Florida Keys, then there was Camille in 1969 at Biloxi, MS, and then there was Andrew that hit south Florida in 1992. Two of our three cat 5s have hit the southern Florida area. That’s not a good sign. Fortunately, Andrew was a very small hurricane and didn’t even affect Miami that much, but nearly wiped Homestead, FL off the map, which is just about 35 miles south of Miami! My grandfather was just three years old when the Labor Day Hurricane hit south Florida. He was in Ft. Myers, FL. He remembers his parents talking about that storm throughout his childhood and how thankful they were that the worst of that storm narrowly missed them and hit the Keys. He’s 86 years old and still remembers the stories and the damage. These are unforgettable storms whose stories survive for generations.

FEMA has announced that they are prepared to shelter 100,000 people. Hopefully, that will be enough. Mass evacuations are underway, with clogged freeways and gas stations running out of gas. Police escorts of gas tanker trucks are in south Florida to assist with folks running out of gas. All tolls on Florida highways have been suspended.

As for us, we have no weather worries at all for the next few days. Highs today through Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows near 50.  Enjoy this, folks, because Irma may give us quite the headache early next week.

On the current track, Irma is expected to start influencing our weather on Monday, with a slight chance of showers. The rain and wind will begin to pick up Monday night. By Tuesday, we could be looking at strong winds of 35-45 mph and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall is also expected. The storm should be moving out on Wednesday. Tuesday will be our roughest day, as it looks right now. I’ll keep you updated. Some of you may remember when Hurricane Opal’s remnants came over back in 1995? We had trees blown down, lots of flooding, and school was cancelled for at least a day. Opal was still a tropical storm when it came over Crossville. So, it is possible to get these storms this far north.

Our elevation puts us up in the higher winds too, so that doesn’t help. Winds increase dramatically with height in both tornadoes and hurricanes. That’s why the high-rises in Miami will experience a category higher hurricane above the 30th floor than what they are experiencing at the ground.

On a lighter note, I just saw a story where a couple in Washington state have been married 75 years. He’s 104 and she’s 93. Their names are Harvey and Irma. They’ve seen a lot in their lives, but never two back-to-back catastrophic hurricanes named after them. When asked what the most impressive thing they’ve ever seen in their lives was, he said seeing Neil Armstrong walk on the moon and she said seeing her first airplane in the sky. When asked their life philosophy they answered, “You just do whatever you think would be best to do. If you can help someone, then help them.” I think that’s some pretty darn good advice, especially now.