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Goodbye sunshine, hello clouds

I hope you like clouds! If you’re like me and was getting bored with Monday and Tuesday’s beautiful weather you’re going to like the forecast for this week.  We have a very moist southwesterly flow aloft that will be transporting plenty of clouds our way for the rest of the week. There will also be periods of sprinkles and showers for today, with rain increasing in coverage and intensity overnight. Today’s high, like the rest of the week’s high temperatures, will be mild and in the 60s. Showers decrease a bit tomorrow but you should still keep the rain jacket handy. In fact, I’d keep that rain jacket with me the rest of the week. We will have a series of disturbances riding that southwest flow, and it’s difficult to time when those will be producing the best chances of rain. Right now, tonight and Friday look like the wettest periods. Like I said, temps will be very mild this week. We may even flirt with  the 70 degree mark by Friday. Rainfall total amounts should stay light, with most folks being under an inch of total rainfall for the week.

As for the weekend…the southwest flow aloft should become more westerly, which would decrease shower and t-storm chances. Those chances won’t be zero, but they will be less. Highs this weekend will top out in the lower 70s and it will actually be quite humid, especially by November standards. These types of air masses make me take notice in November. We know a cold front will come through eventually and we have to be mindful of severe weather this time of year. One of our worst severe weather outbreaks in Cumberland County hit in November 2002 (some of you remember that all too well!). It looks like we may be dealing with a cold front Tuesday. At this time, there aren’t any real clear indications of a widespread severe weather situation, but I’ll keep an eye on it!

We learned yesterday that the wildfires in California a few weeks ago will be the costliest in California state history. The original estimate was 1 billion dollars, but yesterday California’s insurance commissioner raised that total to 3.3 billion. This is the 16th billion dollar weather and/or climate disaster in the US this year. Damages from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are still being tallied, but it looks like Harvey will surpass Katrina. The total damages from Harvey will be at least 190 billion, while Katrina was a 160 billion-dollar disaster. Flooding cost our country more money and kills more people than any other form of severe weather in the US. I did a little research and found that, according to NOAA, we have had more billion-dollar disasters this year than in any other year. In 2016 we had 15 billion-dollar disasters (in 2015 we had 10, 2014= 8, 2013= 9, 2012= 11). Let’s hope for a quiet end to the year!

I’ll end on a lighter note! Today is the anniversary of the first official weather report being transmitted by the Nashville National Weather Service! The report was sent from the new office via telegraph on November 1, 1870.  Here on the plateau we are covered by that Nashville office and are certainly appreciative of all that they do. All warnings are issued by the weather service offices. So when severe weather is occurring, it’s the folks at your local weather service office who issue those warnings. All watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

Tomorrow, I’ll have some historical info for those of you who are fellow snow birds. I noticed something this morning in the weather records that caught my eye. More on that tomorrow! And no, there’s no snow in sight for us…….for now….

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