A tricky weekend forecast

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After briefly climbing a degree above freezing yesterday afternoon (at least here in town), we are now back in the deep freeze. The current temperature here at TAP is 12 degrees with a northwest wind at 10 mph.  We have some flurries flying around out there, with folks north of town seeing a good dusting to 1/4″ of snow. The flurries will continue off and on today and tonight. We may even see one or two flurries linger into Friday morning.

We are under wind chill advisories, once again, for this morning and again tonight. Be careful and bundle up good if you have to head out.

The next big story is the system coming in at the tail end of the weekend. The million-dollar question is whether or not this arctic air will move out before the precipitation moves in.  With each new model run, and our own meteorological analysis of the situation, the answer is looking more and more like a no. I always hear people say it can’t rain because it’s been too cold for too long. I’ve seen rain move in less than 24 hours after we were zero degrees. It’s all about the track of that low.  I’ve seen more busted forecast from weather folks who ignored this than I care to count. Generally speaking, if that low tracks to the north it will pull up enough warm air for us to get rain. If it tracks over the top of us we get a mix. If it tracks to our south we get snow. Yes, there’s more to it than that, but that is the big ole gist of it, folks.

So, where is Sunday’s low tracking? I’m glad you asked! A few days ago it looked like it would track well to our north. Now, it looks like it will track very near to us (if not just to our south).  I think we’ll start out as snow, as the cold air should be deep enough to support snow Sunday evening. Then, we should see a gradual transition to sleet, then freezing rain. All of this should transition to plain ole rain by Monday afternoon. If the low tracks farther south we’ll stay either in mixed precip or wet snow. By Monday night, the winds switch back out of the north and any leftover moisture will turn back to light snow. All of this could change, folks, so stay tuned. It just depends on where exactly the center of that low tracks.  A difference of 30 miles would make all the difference in the world. Timing could also change. The earlier the precip moves in, the more of a wintry mix we would get.

So, will this be a winter storm for us? It certainly could. That’s why you need to stay tuned to the latest forecast. I’ll update the blog again this afternoon with the latest data coming in. Right now, go ahead and prepare for a wintry mess Sunday night. Don’t be like the folks who don’t read my blog and end up surprised when things get dicey Sunday night. I know what you’re thinking, “Some people don’t read his blog?!”  It’s true.  Sad, but true. (smh)

Just go ahead and get your milk and bread (you won’t stand a chance without milk and bread! ha) and fill up the car with gas. Prepare now for power outages, just in case. You should be prepared for power outages anyway, especially with this cold weather.  And just keep this potentially bad weather for Sunday night in mind, especially if you have any appointments on Monday and Tuesday. Know that they may have to be moved.

I’ll be keeping an eye on it all, as you know! You all stay warm today and bundle up if you have to head out!

Here’s the latest satellite image of the big winter storm impacting the Northeast today. What a storm! The media is calling it a bomb cyclone (don’t you just love the latest catch phrases?). Meteorologist say a system is “bombing” when the pressure suddenly drops, meaning it rapidly intensified. We’ve had this term for decades. It’s nothing new., but it makes for a good headline word, I suppose. Anyway, here’s the image of it. It looks like a hurricane off the coast. Wow….

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