Alberto arrives!

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SUMMARY

Guess who has finally arrived? Alberto! Well, the remnants of Alberto, anyway. He is no longer a tropical storm, though he sure looks like one on satellite. It can take days for these systems to lost that “big spin” look on radar. The low pressure associated with the former tropical storm is nearly on top of Birmingham, Alabama and will be centered near Jackson, TN later on today. That leaves us on the east side of the storm, which is the rainiest and breeziest side to be on.

We are under a flash flood watch through Wednesday morning, but I honestly don’t see us having any major issues with flooding. If the center of the storm were going to track closer to us, we’d be in for much more rain. I think rainfall totals around the plateau will stay in the 1-2 inch rain, with many of us being much closer to that one-inch mark.

Often times, these systems spin up weak, short-lived tornadoes on this east side. However, I’m not sure we’ll see any of that today. We’re certainly not looking at any widespread severe weather. Thankfully, the system was not a hurricane when it made landfall, so this isn’t nearly as serious of an inland weather situation it could have been. And the system is moving at a fairly good pace and will not be stalling out in the area. That would have certainly increased the risk for flooding.

This is the system this morning on radar. Notice how it just spirals around. It’s really neat to see in motion!

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The rain and breezy conditions will stick us through tomorrow. Even after the system has lifted north of us by tomorrow evening, there will be plenty of warm, humid air left behind that will likely lead to numerous showers and storms, especially in the afternoon/evening.

Beyond that, Thursday and Friday look to have isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. It will remain very warm and humid.

I’m keeping an eye on the weekend and for the chance of storms to move in from Kentucky. I have more on this in the discussion if you’re interested. Otherwise, stay tuned for that weekend forecast.

DISCUSSION

I’ll be watching as the remnants of Alberto spin northward today. If any severe wx does develop I will be sure to pass that along. I honestly don’t think this system will bring much more than lots of showers and breezy winds. The threats for both severe wx and flooding look to be really low. We can’t completely let our guard down, but we don’t need to be really worried about it.

Like I said in the summary, as we look to Thursday and Friday it just looks like isolated to scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms. Then, things may get interesting by this weekend.

A huge area of high pressure is building in over Texas. This is leading to really hot weather for them. So, how does this affect us? I’m glad you asked!

During the summer months, we have to keep an eye on these big domes of high pressure. Keep in mind that air sinks at the center of these highs. As that air sinks, air around the edges of the high must rise. This rising air can give way to thunderstorm complexes that rotate around that high pressure cell. These thunderstorm complexes can pack quite a punch. We had one of these complexes last Memorial Day weekend when we had all that wind come through. This is the time of year when we really have to start watching out for these.

Models are hinting that such a situation may develop this coming weekend for us. I’ll keep an eye on it and keep you posted. Right now, I’m thinking late Saturday looks tricky but that could certainly change. Hopefully, the high pressure will shift and take us out of the storm track. That is certainly possible too. I just want to give you a heads up that we could be dealing with some strong to severe storms if one of these complexes evolves around this high.

Below is a graphic of the scenario I’m a bit concerned about. Storms would ride around the edge of that high pressure and right into our neck of the woods. This model shows the energy available for storms, should they form. There will certainly be PLENTY of energy for the storms (heat and humidity), so any storm that can develop will certainly have the potential to become strong or severe. Like I said, I’ll be monitoring this and I’ll keep you posted.

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You all have a great day and try to stay dry!

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