After we get rid of this morning batch of rain, we’ll be looking at scattered showers and storms the rest of the day. Not everyone will see rain today, since today’s activity will not be in form of one of those big complexes of showers and storms, but some of us will see showers and storms again today. Be aware that in this environment, storms will produce heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, along with gusty winds. The good news is that we will not be dealing with the threat of widespread severe weather, though we could see one or two storms briefly become strong (you know how it is with these pop-up storms).
By Saturday, we will still be looking at the threat of an isolated shower or storm, with coverage being less than today. I expect at least half the plateau to pick up rain today from scattered convection, while tomorrow only about a third of us could see rain.
Then, my eyes turn to the west after dark, as a very potent complex of showers and storms looks to slide out of the Plains states and into West TN. At this time, the worst looks to stay well to our west (thank goodness!), where there will be a substantial damaging wind threat. This is that complex that worried me back on Tuesday. Thankfully, it looks to slide more to our west. However, it still looks like we will get a glancing blow from it and we may have some strong storms to deal with early Sunday morning. I’ll be watching it all, of course.
After that complex clears out Sunday morning, we should be looking at a nice Sunday afternoon and evening. Keep your fingers crossed, right? And then next week starts out warm and dry with low humidity levels. Farmers rejoice at that news because it is hay cutting time in Tennessee! (ha) By the end of the week, however, shower and storm chances may return.
The storms in Missouri finally (finally!) organized late, late yesterday evening. They then became linear and made their way into Tennessee. Everything went as planned except for the timing (ha). That actually worked out well for us because that put the storms getting here early this morning, during the most stable part of the day. Plus, yesterday’s rain and storms kept our atmosphere all mixed up, which kept us from getting lots of sun that would have really destabilized the atmosphere.
Sometimes the atmosphere can be so unstable that showers and storms erupt too easily for severe weather. When you have a constant parade of storms like we had yesterday, you end up with an atmosphere that can’t quiet get heated up and unstable enough for the really big storms. I remember the big derecho wind storm back in the summer of 2004. I was interning at channel 8 in Knoxville that evening. As I drove to Knoxville that afternoon, I noticed there wasn’t a cloud in the sky, not even over the mountains. That is very odd for this part of the country on a hot, humid July day. All the energy of the atmosphere was building up and it would take a decent sized triggering mechanism to set it off.
Then, at about mid-afternoon supercells in Illinois turned into a squall line (in this case a derecho) and pointed straight for us. Later that evening that those storms came screaming across the plateau. Many of you probably still remember all the wind damage and power outages? I have quite the number or stories to tell from this event when we get to its anniversary this summer! This event was a good example of the atmosphere being undisturbed all that hot day long, allowing ALL that energy to build up and be available for storms.
This is one thing I’ll be watching tomorrow. If we end up getting even more isolated showers/storms tomorrow than I am expecting, our atmosphere will be more unstable when storms get here Sunday morning. Thankfully, the mornings are our most stable time, so that (once again) may really help us out. I’ll be on top of this tomorrow and I will be updating the blog and Facebook as needed.
Speaking of storms, but of a much different nature…
Guess what today is? June 1 is the official start of the 2018 hurricane season. Yes, we’ve already had Alberto but he came early. Heck, most of the reason for this nasty humidity outside these days is what Alberto left behind. As of now, there are no tropical systems in sight. That will change as we go through the summer, of course. We are expecting a “normal” hurricane season and having Alberto is absolutely no indication of an above-average year. That would be like getting a tornado in January and saying the whole spring tornado season would be bad. That’s just not how it works.
Below is the updated expectation from this hurricane season. Keep in mind, it only takes one bad storm to make for a bad season.
And here are the names that will be used this year. These names are recycled very six years, unless a storm becomes catastrophic. Then, the name gets dropped and replaced with another one. You don’t want to live in New Orleans and six years after Katrina hear that there’s another Katrina coming. That’s panic we never want to create! So, names like Katrina get retired and there will never be another storm by that name.
For those of you watch Larry’s Country Diner, you have to laugh when you see Nadine on there. She’s a character on that show who plays a sassy church lady. She’s in charge of what goes on the church sign each week. I just can’t believe a storm associated with someone who looks like this could be that bad (haha).
Do you see your name? My first name is William, so I’m technically on the list! Meteorologist William just doesn’t have the same ring to it as Meteorologist Mark….. Anyway, I’m technically on there! (And yes, in case you ever wondered, spell check highlights the word meteorologist (including just now) every time I type it. It’s a hard word to spell! ha)
I have some exciting news!!! Remember the satellite I was invited to go see back in January and then got to see launched into space on March 1? Yeah, I’m still not believing that all really happened. Well, yesterday we got our first images from it!!! How cool is that! There is one hiccup…..there’s something wrong with the cooling system on the satellite and technicians are having a hard time fixing it. I know, I jinxed it. I bet they think twice before letting me back in the same room with a multi-million dollar satellite! 😮
Anyway, here’s the image it sent back. And yes, I’m having this framed. I could stare at this forever.
You all have a great day!